Smartgambler
Pro-Punter

Go Back   OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums > Public Forums > Horse Race Betting Systems
User Name
Password
Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark all topics as read

To advertise on these
forums, e-mail us.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #1  
Old 8th August 2002, 09:54 AM
thekey thekey is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 105
Default

Here is a formula for working out what losing sequences you can expect:

Bets = 1/(1-SR)^n

where n number of losers in a row
Bets = no. bets before you could expect such a sequence
SR = strike rate as a decimal.

eg. favs

SR = 0.3 (30%)
n=10 (10 losers in a row)

1/(1-0.3)^10 = 35

so you could expect ten favs to lose in a row once every 35 bets.

This scared the crap out of me the first time I saw it!

This seemed a bit "off" to me initially but if you consider it this way it makes more sense.

If 11 lose in a row that is 2 times ten losses in a row. So if you go 70 bets and have one losing sequence of 11, you have actually had two losing sequences of 10 which averages out to 1/35.

note : you can expect 11 losers in a row once every 51 bets (@30%SR).
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump



All times are GMT +10. The time now is 08:46 PM.


Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
©2008 OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved . ACN 091184655