nice explanation crash

When he says "forever and a day" doesn't it sound like betting every race.

Put it this way. If you aren't betting every race what makes more sense is only back your favoured selection when you can get it at good odds. Otherwise don't bet.

Once you start running a book against the books, you are starting to commit your self more and more to backing every race. As you are in wait of the over the odds horse winning.

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pipped at the post

Crash, haven't got the figures in front of me but I rememeber reading several times that the one area that is vulnerable for the bookies is actually odds on favs, i.e. the loss (if all are backed) is very small which leaves an opportunity for the astute backer (looking for value etc) as you yourself said getting 1/1 about a 1-2 chance is EXCELLENT value!

I'm not saying youre wrong but 50% does not sound right as I know it's just less than 50% for 1-1 money chances.
Makes you think about the miniscule edge that the casino has on odds/evens, or black/red doesn't it?

There is a very big difference between Even money chances at the races & the odds offered at the casino. In the first case Even money chances at the races are only ever an opinion price, even after the race has been run, in reality it could have been a 1/2 chance or a 2/1 chance - it will never be known as it's a buyer's market & over the long term the buyers tend to get it approximately right - it's only the vig that stops many of them winning.

With the casino there is no opinion on the maths that never change on odds/evens; black/red chances, it is always in the negative.

It doesn't 'sound' like any such thing. If I can find 2 or 3 win bets a card on Sat. I'm lucky. 1 or 2 a day during the week. If anyone can find more, they are taking 'unders' regularly. However, any bookie offering me $100 on a $4 shot in every race going in Aust. I will back them All :-) !!!

Party,
Well it's around that figure, give or take a little. It is a risky area for bookies against anyone who knows what their doing and who specializes in that area, but I don't see any 'risky customers' in this thread [yourself of course:-)], do You?

La Mer, point taken but what I can't get my head around totally is the FACT that although 1/1 chances are OPINION as you say, when it comes out in the wash say 1000 x 1/1 chances turns out ************ close to 50% wins and 50% losers (not quite but close) and in fact going up through the odds only, (not taking into account ANTHING else) the same holds true, although the gap widens as we go up through the prices, (as you know of course) in other words take the fate of 1000 x 3/1 chances and what d'yer know just less than 1 in three; wins???? When the 3-1 is OPINION, how can that be???
Must be some excellent judges setting those prices eh?

Crash, re "risky" customers, well if they are here they probably would stay pretty quiet on the subject. Still waters run deep as they say.

Take in the TAB % 'take' and rounding down and 1 in 3 for 3/1 shots is meaningless to them [TAB].

1/1 chances at 50% win are a loss,loss too without the punter being able to define and recognize the overlays that are really 1/1, 50% chances that are being offered as 2nd. and 3rd. favorites and corresponding prices. That's where the 'public' fall over [money management?]. Not many of them can do that often enough to be profitable. It takes a dash of art/perception of outcome and a lot of practice. Both ingredients are required.

Whatever. Doesn't really sound like you form a book, more just back your selection when you find acceptable odds for it. Which is not the Don Scott approach to value.

Nice chit chat about $100 on $4.00 chances.

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pipped at the post

yeah, I was really talking about opinion BOOKMAKERS there, though probably % bookmakers as well, but not TAB for the reasons that you outlined.
I bet on the tote ( best of 3) as there is a definite advantage say from 4-1 upover over sp or even Top Fluc, so in way that is overs isn't it? less than 4-1 and it seems to swing the other way. so same thing top fluc is overs (usually)

There were no TAB's around when Don Scott was punting and bookies, due to the crowds and being in their heyday, they could afford to run a tighter book [better odds]. Things have changed a great deal since Don Scott. Look at the amount of races today and the abundance of rubbish races among them. Also look at the amount of Maidens and 1000m races [1000m races used to be rare]. Both difficult races to win on. Maidens due partly to poor prices and 1000m races because there is no recovery room after a poorish jump. Look also at the very small amount of Welters and 4yr. old and up races around [easy to win on]. It's a new ball game nowadays with some advantages but a heck of a lot more disadvantages that weren't around in Don Scott's time.

I make up a list of prospective bets and priceline them or price them just from handicapping the race. The bigger the overs the bigger my bet. I usually have 1 to 3 selections in the races I've targeted that I think could win [depends on no of runners in a race]. The selection offering the over is my bet. If there are 2 I'll back the better over. Often [during the week] I have days I don't find a bet and I will also back a runner blind if it isn't obviously going to be fav. when I can't be around to watch the prices. I have my good years, and some bad years like most of us I guess.

Finding 3 or 4 bets across 3 meetings on Sat. is about average but sometimes nothing at all. I indulge in fun bets only on the big stakes races and cups. There is just too many possibilities in those races [look what happened it Syd. last Sat. Where was Hotel Grand ?].

Party,
Top fluc. as overs ? Haven't really thought about it, but I guess it's as close to overs as you'll get. A lot will be and most of those will probably not be starting fav. and a few won't be that will be starting fav. I suppose.