A Quote from Erik Hoffer

"In times of change....
learner's inherit the earth,
while the learned
find themselves beautifully equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists."

While this was aimed more at stockmarket type investing it applies also to horse racing.

Basically, I think, it is more important to know how to apply the past (performance history) to the future than it is to concoct ways which would have made money in the past, if only we had known about them beforehand.

Ahh, but "History always repeats itself" - don't have a clue who said it.

In the stock market there are a lot of people who make money based on following rules developed around trends, etc (technical analysis as opposed to fundamental analysis). These rules are based on historical analysis of trends and do work (well some of them work anyway - I personally know one person who was making a good income this way until the stress started getting to them).

There is no doubt it is possible to develop a system based on past results BUT there are a few things to remember:

1. You have to do it yourself - buying a system will never work because once a few people start using the same system it will stop working.
2. The rules you come up with must work consistantly month after month (no good coming up with something that shows a huge profit 1 month but losses the rest of the time). If you can find rules that show profits for at least 90% of the time in the past (with several years data) then there is a very good chance it will continue to work in the future.
3. The rules should be as simple as possible - eg. bet on dead or better tracks only is OK - bet on heavy if it is first Monday of month is NOT (this is a specific rule to fit past data)
4. If you come up with a system that works DO NOT SELL IT - you will make more money using it yourself!

Sounds like you already have one.

Still refining it but it has made a profit for 11 out of the last 14 weeks. :smile:

I agree becareful,
The point is a rigid set of rules won't work, you must be flexible and constantly able to adjust for the circumstances.
This does not mean historical data is useless, it is in fact very helpful and a good pointer to the future. But even if it were possible to run a race of exactly the same field under the exact same conditions it doesn't mean the same horse would win.
When you get your head around that you will be on the right path. I Hope!

Another thought on systems- the marginal selections, when back checking you kno the results and therefore will probably include the winners and leave out the losers, will this happen when you have to put your dollars down?

I will have more to say about this in the future.

Any chance of getting some tips for saturday?

Food for thought: When looking at past data, ask yourself "Which of these outcomes are more likely to re-occur in the future?"

Some things repeat, others fade away. Work out which things are going to repeat and which are going to fade away and you have found something worthwhile.

Yes Freddy I'll try to post some selections.
I'll even provide a suggested value price!
I guess this will test out my theories.

I don't have this problem as I do all my back checking on the computer - I adjust my criteria and it applies that criteria and gives me the result - therefore I don't manually include or exclude marginal calls. Of course when I am placing my bets I do have the option to override the system but I am learning not to! Have had several instances where I missed out on big collects because the system told me to bet but I thought the horse had no chance only to see it come in.

With regards to adjusting the system I am constantly reviewing it but am finding that the changes I am making are really now just very minor fine tuning.

My system is not trying to pick the winner in every race - simply identify horses that are good value (eg. $15 when they should be $10). I am finding that my "rigid rules" are actually surprisingly good at identifying those horses (better than I expected actually). Therefore it doesn't matter that no two races are ever the same - as long as there are value horses in the field that are mispriced on the tote I will be on the right road!

My Top-Rated Runners for Sat 29/6

Ipswich
1/2 Gullcatcher $5.00 6
2/6 Nova 3.20 10
5/3 West Ward 5.20 6 (should get soft lead)
6/3 King Lotto 8.20 4 (very open 8th rated is 14.90)
7/8 Flying Sparks 6.40 5
8/1 Darcy D'or 2.00 10

Rosehill
3/1 Timidity 3.10 10
4/6 Charmeuse 5.90 5
6/11 Zabarra 4.60 7
7/3 Magic Feather 3.30 10
8/4 Oakfield Duke 2.80 10

Will only count those that are available at value prices in results. Staking will be to rated prices(between 3 & 10 units)

Have ignored Flemington for obvious reasons!