Given the way this stalled and there were all the talk of how much data you need but little in the way of how we could approach it I propose the following which i've attempted myself and it has alluded me and I think is something that could be highly profitable and rewarding if we can bring it together as a group. I'm happy to attack this with others are interested and would appreciate if people who reply simply either state that they are interested / willing to help and/or offer a starting point, approach or angle in which we can get this going. Not really interested in more posts telling us how much data we need etc etc - Most of us have the data or some data to an extent - it's about offering ideas or angles in which we can use that data.

Some time ago CP created a thread which looked at in-running positioning in why speedyben chipped in saying he'd been backing leaders in-running at particular tracks/distance for some time. CP did some study on what tracks/distances provided the best POT and I was always under the impression (maybe false?) that it was possible to predict the front runners and back them to win at certain tracks/distances etc etc.

Essentially this is speed mapping and most would agree that finding a freely available speedmap online that is consistently accurate basically doesn't happen. Are there people interested in taking a mechanical approach to this and determining leaders/front runners to win at certain tracks/distances.

Could be a hefty task but lucrative as well if we get the right people and ideas onboard? If nobody has interest or thinks its too difficult i'll let it go but was just a thought of mine.

WOW Garyf,

Potent results indeed!!

'Please explain' what it's like to be sitting on a Goldmine!!

You're a legend!!

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

Hi Evajb01,

I believe Mattio has this sussed. I recall in one of his posts he advised he knows the cruising speed of all of the horses he backs.

Next level stuff.

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

************ HARD WORK.

A basic starting point it appears is most,
Peoples problem can't help here anymore,
As what is being proposed will be out most peoples reach.

What is being attempted an admirable notion,
Took me 15 years to learn.

Cheers.

Hi Garyf,

Apologies if you took my post the wrong way, I was just having a bit of fun bud.

I know you've put in the hard yards and your contribution to the forum has been immense!!

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

NAH appreciate it had a laugh as well.

Keep em coming.

Cheers.

Don't make ratings the be all and end all in your life. Why? Coz too many people take notice of them and put their money on them. What does that do....it doesn't make it worthwhile doing the same as you've lost value. Any quest for the ultimate rating needs to balance it with value.

Here's an example: Take a category of horses with a record of 100% achieving a place, at the current distance, in every past race! Awesome, a million punters think? "I'll put some money on that."

I looked at a months results. These horse won 21.4% of their races, BUT at SP, you had a LOT of 34%.

Now let's look at horses that have never placed at the current distance in every past race. They only won 11.6% of their races but the LOT was only 0.09%. Now that's an edge you can work on?

That's because their prices were greater, and no one was backing them. On paper they didn't look so hot. Pursuing ratings the age old way, you'll always miss these horses. It's a conundrum of epic proportions, how to find value but also an undiscovered chance of winning?

All I can say in your quest for the perfect rating, is you need to be using a method not used by the computer crunching tipsters and ratings people. I said in an earlier thread/post that from a lay point of view the higher the past strike rate % of horses, the more Lay profit until you get back to 4th - 6th. Maybe that's where you should be looking as they're under the radar?

Correct it all boils down to HOW YOU INTERPRET DATA.,
And where the real advantage is.

Be it statistical rating form or whatever as evident,
In my lay posting(32)

Here simply is a distance rating that at a certain distance,
In SYD-PROV when first or second favourite are lays.

How many people would be doing form-stats & say,
This has the best statistics at todays race & distance,
Based on starts wins places etc.

But if you look at in it another way ???.(post-32)

I have stacks of these that statistically look good with ratings,
But in certain places have little chance when looked at from different angles.

Ratings are only "ONE" part of the puzzle but are never to be disregarded.

Cheers.
Garyf.

Hi RP,

Wise words!! I certainly don't prescribe to the theory that ratings are the be all and end all.

In the case of Shaun's ratings, they appear to be able to isolate a tasty commodity, indicated by his $9.50 winner in race 5 today and a $16 winner on top on Sunday.

Agree that winning % might suffer a little to focus on the value runners.

The other angle is to be super selective with races and only play when the ratings indicate you have an advantage.

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

Hate to be the party pooper, but you need to do the maths with Lay prices before you buy the Ferrari. It's easy to fall into the trap of thinking that a big loss on the Back side translates to a big win on the Lay side. For example, I've grabbed a couple of months results (232 selections) for laying the #1 Price rank, #1 Vol rank, #1 SKY rank, # 1 Neural rank. It showed a -10.6 liability loss for the Layer.

However using Back prices less commission , a -1.68 liability loss for the Backers. See, the ************s still get their cut!

I got sucked in once, subscribing to a Ratings service that uses Betfair WAP to calculate profit/loss on strategies. Looked good, until you find out that WAP and SP can vary as much as 40%. Please be sure to back test with the right price, is all I'm saying