Gerry,

Yeah 2.40 would get a profit... 2.50 a better profit.

I usually look for higher than 60% ... ie don't take 60%.

61% is better than 60% ... and will be more profit ... 60% is where the profit cuts down susbstaintially.

It's a fair bet that few bothered to conduct this exercise here, as a search for Harville would have easily unearthed some useful information.

Particularly this excellent free Place calculator:

http://us.geocities.com/possum_31415/place.htm

Anyone wishing to learn some Betfair skills might like to try Place Betting using this.

It should provide significantly more action than Wesmip's simple formula.

I note that Betfair finally allows you to resize your windows a bit so it might even be possible to view Win, place and Calculator windows concurrently on the 1 screen.

From the same link above:

"Here's an endorsement of the calculator from Jd777 on the Betfair forum:

there's nothing wrong with the calculations - its just that they are too simple / one-dimensional for practical usage".

As is most of what has been said on this thread maybe [for starters, there is no such thing as automated betting software as has been suggested here that could be used to detect correct conditions and place bets for ANY type of betting system]?

The only system[s] that do work mentioned here have not been explained [Mark's method and maybe something Chrome was alluding too] and for probably good reason.

I can give more insight to what I'm doing, besides revealing exactly step by step.

It's extremely basic and extremely easy, once you have the tools and have done the proper research prior to diving in.

You need an accurate set of ratings or prices that are proven to be accurate and consistent.

You need to know exactly and accurately what advantage or disadvantage you have.

There is also the need to know the bigger the over you get, the more you put on, the more profit you make. This is basic stuff, but there are a lot of ratings that are not that accurate,and so when you see an overlay, they don't necessarily provide profit, because something unmeasurable or unpredictable has been left out!

Just a note, I do not use commercial ratings myself at all, there are other ways to determine the correct market price.

Finally, you have to set your lay and bet prices on Betfair and let them hang, you'll go bananas trying to chase prices manually.

There's a bit more to it, but it gives you an indication, and although it's basic stuff, they key is doing the research prior, so you are confident in the end result.

The reason this is so much better than betting systems etc, is that I can bet in every race, some races no risk (a la Mark) and whether my bets win a whole lot of races or lose a whole lot of races, I win money.

__________________
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Chrome

Can you always green up? Or are there times when you can't fully cover your position?

Pixie

crash,

I can tell you my method works and it makes money consistently. Take today for instance. I am up over $300 following this.

If you reckon I don't get much action take a look at Pinjarra today .. I had 3 horses in the first race and 2 of them placed (8 and 3 the loser was number 1) which returned a profit of 81%. And its not hard getting enough money on either ...

The trick is to keep it simple which the method I follow does.

Here is another method that works :

Back the fav for a place (at fixed odds) if you can get at least 30% higher than is avialable on unitab.

Or

Back the 100 rater if you can get at least a 30% higher win price then the the top tote.

Or

back the fav under $3 if you can get at least 30% higher than the tote.

Or

Back the favs under $2 if you can get 20% higher than the tote or 10% higher for the placing.


Its not hard ... its just common sense and doing the research.

Good Luck.

Its easy to work out where to put your price.

If the horse is paying $4 with 2 mins to go then set the place price you want to around $2.50 and hope it gets filled. Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn't.

who cares as in the long run you know that you are going to be in front.

Good Luck.

AngriePixie,

At the level I'm at at the moment, I can always get set for the dollars, the hurdle is getting set at the right price.A lot of races I only get marginally matched, so the profit is minimal, but some lovely races I get matched right up to 100% plus overlay This is really where the profit is, but you just don't know in advance what peopole will take, so I have to set it up in increments.

Here's a typical example of my bets

$6.00 @ $2.48
$12.00 @ $2.64
$18.00 @ $2.81
$24.00 @ $2.97
$30.00 @ $3.14
$36.00 @ $3.30
etc
etc...

Most of the time I'll be matched only up to $18.00 but sometimes I've been matched right up to $60.00 plus! (very rare).

The reason the bet size is so small, is that my bank isn't huge at the moment, and I'm outlaying these amounts on bet and lay on multiple horses over all races at once. I want to limit my bank exposure until I have a little more ammo behind me.

(I should add that obviously some prices aren't accepted due to allowed increments, however, I just roundup the price requested).

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Chrome, I'd like to know what you mean by 'accurate ratings' ?

As you know there is a large swag of unknown facts in horse racing that can't be measured before a race. Only if all facts are known can 'accurate' ratings and therefore accurate PP [or SP for that matter] prices, be produced.
If they could be produced, that would mean you would know the winner of almost every race [have to allow for the odd horse falling over etc.].
30% accurate [SP fav. SR] is as accurate as ANY ratings [or PP prices] get, surely?

If not, I'd love to see a demonstration [not after the race examples] of 'accurate rating' doing their stuff any better and 'accurate' implies a heck of a lot better than the current SP fav. SR.

crash,

What I mean by accurate ratings, is that they are overall consistent, not just on some races, in some months etc etc. This doesn't necessarily mean that they will be accurate every race either, as long as overall they are accurate.

Whether they show a profit, breakeven or even show a loss does not matter to me, I need to know that accounting for the discrepency that backing overlays and laying underlays will return a consistent profit and that the ratio is accurate of greater overlay & greater overlay plus more money on = more profit.

This is overall.

If the (greater than) scenario is not accurate, I'll make a loss, perhaps a big one.

Just like a bookie, I don't need to win every race, because the overlays are in my favour longterm, as long as the prices I accept are within the boundaries of profit and the overlays and underlays are true overall.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg