Hi Merriguy,
What Pixie is tying to do, is bet his say, 2 selections as one bet by spreading the outlay for that race over say 2 horses at their respective prices, staggering the bets..
This is done to reduce the exposure of liability on the race, should a high priced selection win instead of loosing.

He is Dutch Lay betting the selections, so as to reduce his exposed liability on the races .
If all of the selections fall over, he collects .
If say 1 of the gets up to win , he does not get hit so hard , as if he would of have, if he had placed 2 individual bets on the same race.

The general idea can work well.

Cheers.

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Cheers.

"Have you (and Mark, Bhagwan, and others) had much of a look at the new Betfair Australian Racing site?"

Don't know about any new site Merriguy.


With laying big prices you have to set yourself a limit on how high you will go. Having said that, don't be too rigid as every race is different.


Today's no hopers.

MR1 5,6,7
MR2 1,3,5
MR4 2,3
MR5 1,9
MR6 6,11,12
MR7 5,8,13

KR1 5
KR2 3,5
KR5 5
KR6 3,8
KR7 4,6,7,8,11,12,13
KR8 9,10
KR9 1,2,3,5,6,8,9,11,12
KR10 10,13,14

Thanks, Bhagwan, a neat and concise explanation. I will keep working on it!

Mark, the site I refer to is:

http://racing.betfair.com.au/sports-racing/

Mark

I don't show any selections for MUSW02. The 1 is scratched (but only had 4 starts anyway), 3 is a first starter and 5 has only had one start. Don't Maidens need at least 10 starts?

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Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Sorry Pixie, MR2 should read MR3.
And even then I realise I haven't explained myself clearly. I use 1:10 or less for midweek, except for Open class races where I use less than 1:6 as I do for Saturday races.

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Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Thanks Bhagwan, yes that's it in a nutshell.

The maths for laying to a fixed stake are quite simple really. Say we're interested in "Dutching" these horses to lose using a fixed stake of $50.

HORSE A: $ 3.00
HORSE B: $ 6.00
HORSE C: $15.00

For each horse divide 100 by it's price to get the win probablility implied by its odds.

HORSE A: 100/3 = 33.33%
HORSE B: 100/6 = 16.67%
HORSE C: 100/15 = 6.67%

Add the probabilities together to get our book value.

33.33% + 16.67% + 6.67% = 56.67%

Divide the win probability of each horse by the book value.

HORSE A: 33.33/56.67 = 0.5881
HORSE B: 16.67/56.67 = 0.2941
HORSE C: 6.67/56.67 = 0.1176

To determine the stake that should be placed on each horse, we multiply the figure above by the total stake of $50.

HORSE A: 0.5881 * 50 = $29.41
HORSE B: 0.2941 * 50 = $14.71
HORSE C: 0.1176 * 50 = $ 5.88

If HORSE A wins we lose (2*29.41)-14.71-5.88 = $38.23
If HORSE B wins we lose (5*14.71)-29.41-5.88 = $38.26
If HORSE C wins we lose (14*5.88)-29.41-14.71 = $38.20

If none of the three win, we win our stake of $50.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Here is another Lay bet selection plan that seems to work very well.

LS 5th or Worse Plan.
.Target the 1st & 2nd Betfair Favs at say 1-2 min till jump

.Target the selection of the 2 favs that ran 5th or worse LS.
(Treat X & first career start, as a 4th.)

.If a draw , take the lowest price of the 2 selections.

.Max price accepteable is $5.50 , try not to go past this.

.Bet to price as mentioned in previouse posts.


Go over some past TAB results & check out its SR , to see if it is acceptable to your betting style before betting any real money of your own.

Cheers.

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Cheers.