I meant the 'crowd' is loosing 15% on their bet outlay based on their overall best average win SR [30%] and the prices returned for the win after TAB take, not before it.

Hi Woof,
You said:
Quote"3-dog box: 80 hits out of 1286 races (6.22%), average payoff is $89.66, and the ROI is a miserable -53.52%. (BTW, the 6.22% hits is very reasonable for a three-dog box.)

The HANDICAP isn't important. The WAGERING means the world! Just LOOK at that spread. The BAD wager has a 53% LOSS and the GOOD wager has almost a 63% PROFIT! All based on the exact same handicap.

In all my years at the track, I've never seen ANYONE that can improve their HANDICAPPING from a 53% loss to a 63% profit. But you CAN improve that much if you study wagering." endquote[/QUOTE] (I still haven't mastered the art of quoting)


Try as I might I can only make that a ROI of -7.04%. If the average payout were exactly half of your $89.66, i.e $44.83 then the ROI would be -53.52%.

I don't wish to sound patronising or sycophantic but your contributions to this thread have been the most enlightening I've seen. Many thanks

Many thanks for the kind words.

[QUOTE=woof43]Duritz,
This is where Handicapping, pricing (assigning probabilities) betting overs and winning starts.

Woof43 Hi!
I read your reply to Duritz with great interest.
Good stuff!!!
I have studied statistical analysis, (have to admit not willingly it was just a subject we had to do), and never thought of putting it to good use, until I read your post.
Always tried to improve my ratings and now I realise it is nearly as good as it gets (or as good as I can make it) and now I have to find a way to make it more profitable. Sometimes we need just a nudge in the right direction to go forward.
Thank's for your input.
Ps. Duritz! If you read this, my apologies for the use of parentheses TM(Duritz)

lomaca,

Could you please read my reply to you on the February Tipping Comp thread.