Can somebody please explain this to me?

Seems to me that there are alot of systems that people use that involve pre post prices.

Now on big events such as the Melbourne Cup, I believe that you can actually bet on the pre post prices. If the horse doesn't make it to the races then you have done your dollars.

Now often people refer to getting the pre post prices from the newspaper. Now if you can actually bet with the people that are giving these prices, then all is good.

I always thought that these newspaper prices were just somebodies opinion of what they predict the market will be.
Do these not vary from newspaper to newspaper?

Now this is confusing to me. Are they not just somebodies opinion? I mean, if you look at the trots pre post markets in the Herald Sun ( I think done by Hutchison? ) he singles out his best bet, and his best roughie.
If all the prices are not just his opinion, then how can he know the best roughie? If he has rated a horse at 20-1, then why would he choose it as his best roughie? Surely if he liked its chances, he would rate it a lot shorter.

Now if the prices on display are an actual bookmakers price, then maybe he has rated it as a $4 chance and knowing that $20 is available, it is his best roughie.
Although I don't think this is the case.

If you can actually bet on the prices shown in newspapers then please feel free to stomp all over me, but if I am right and these are just somebodies opinion, then I think that anybody that bases any sort of a system around these markets is really kidding themselves.

Hope I'm not telling me Granny how to blow eggs here, but pre-post prices and "ANTI - POST prices are 2 different things.

Anti-post is literally the market formed by a particular bookmaker on an "all in basis" often days or weeks before the race, so yes if you take the price and the nag is withdrawn you have done your dough!

Whereas pre-post prices, or as we say in the uk (forcast prices) is indeed someone's opinion of the likely SP, though they would have to be pretty well informed I guess.

You are able to bet here at top fluctuation with a stipulated minimum price with IAS as well as others, so let's say you wanted a $100 on Makavi Diva today at top fluc (minimum $4 , as per WA TAB-FORM)

Your bet was on at $4.60c so you collect.

However if the the top fluc had been say $3.90 your bet would have been OFF, even though it won.

Hope this helps!!

There is nothing wrong with pre post prices!

If a horse is $4 pre post and ends up winning at $10 people form the opinion that the pre post market is not accurate.

If someone who has their own version of weight ratings published their selctions and rated the same horse at $4 they would be applauded.

Its all in how you look at them.

Year after year the pre post favorites,2nd favs,3rd favs etc win at the same rate,they are a strong "GUIDE" and do me just fine.

Dale, I agree, in fact it's uncanny how accurate they are really, to the extent that approx 50% of all winners are quoted pre-post fav or 2nd fav.

BJ just elaborating a bit more, yes the pre-post markets are formed by "someones" opinion but that someone is VERY unlikely to be the office tea boy, they are in fact RATINGS in a way.

Just wondering if anyone has an extensive data base of pre-post favs, that could be useful,I have started one, but not enough data yet to make any consise predictions.

My main point is that if you buy a different newspaper to the guy next door, you both get different pre post prices.
If you are both using the same system revolving around pre post prices, you are going to get completely different results.

Partypooper - I dont have a data base, just the newspaper, and
dare I say I have several different "methods" on the go using the favourite from the paper. Some started in january and the others march this year.
So far from january to october these are my results
321 races x 157 wins returning $485.95.
All have lost two months each.
I do understand this is not much of a return compared to the majority of u guys, but I'm happy with what I am doing.
Bj - I use the courier mail

Feather, do NOT sell yourself short, after many many years of trying I cannot match that 50% on T/O, or anywhere near it!!

I do have a method using the PP fav that is showing just over 50% WINNERS but the POT, although acceptable is no where near what you are achieving!!


BJ, Ah! now you are touching on something else, yes I agree entirely,.... the moral of the tale is : ALWAYS use the same source for your pp prices. Some swear by this one and that one, in my experience the Racing Radio PP fav has proven to be the most accurate, but overall there is not much difference to the final outcome over say 1000 races, but if you were to swap between one and another adding in the "murphy" factor youre bound to come unstuck!

Agreed Partypooper, chopping and changing is probably the worst thing to do.

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At the end of the day, it is a personal thing.
It is not something I could do. There is less to be known about the person doing the form, than the horses he/she is rating.

If they are so good at doing the form, then surely they could make so much more money by punting full time. All they are doing is pointing everybody to there selections, hence decreasing the value they are getting. They are shooting themselves in the foot.
If they are not backing these horses themselves, then they are not going to care. But do you really want to rely on somebody elses ideas that don't rely on their own?

The only way I can select the horses to bet on is majority. I would rather take 20,000 peoples combined opinion over 1 any day of the week. And I do. Everyday....

I do envy your POT though Feather. Although I am in profit, my POT is nowhere near that. I am a high turnover/low profit kind of guy.....

But as long as we all end up in front and have a good time, then I guess who really cares how we get there...

I still question the term "pre post prices" though. They are somebodies ratings. If there is no price available, then how can it be called a price?

BJ, good discussion this, now I am a LONG way from being an expert, but as I understand it some of the pre-post markets are formed by BOOKMAKERS, i.e. that's their opinion based on past performance + other factors as to what will be on offer for that race, and of course the bookies do put their money where their opinion is and make a profit of course because the market that they have formed is probably around 125% or so. Remember that a bookie lays horses AND backs horses to arrive at a (hopefully) win win situation over time.

Now I am reliably informed that some publications use a mechanical programme to form the pre-post market, obviously still using past performance, + several other factors, jockeys , breeding etc etc. But in this case their is not a single person's opinion involved, it's a computer.

Think in another way, you know that mechanically picking 1st and 2nd forcast fav will produce the winner 50% of the time. SO, start with this basic requirement, THEN apply your own rules, judgment etc. I'm sure your S/R will increase.

Either way it would be great to emulate Feathers POT wouldn't it?