Hi Rails Run,

My way may be a little convoluted but I'm confident it's right.

If your strike rate is 35%, this means the chance of missing a place is 65% (100-35)

So over a series of 3 bets, 65 x .65 x .65 = 27.46 (27.5% rounded) chance of hitting a loser over the series.

100-27.5 = 72.5% chance of hitting a winner over the series.

I hope it makes sense. Let me know if you need any clarification.

The Schmile

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The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

Another alternative to chasing the first 3 races for each venue is this.

Target the RadioTAB top 2 selections for those 3 races at each venue.
Stopping once a winner is struck for each venue.

Betting 2 Horses a race.
Use a 60/40 split bet over those 2 horses.
60% of bet on the one you like.
It does not have to be the shorter price of the 2 Horses.

40% on the other.

Stopping at first winner for each venue even if there is a small loss.

Example.
3.00 + 2.00 = 5.00 per race.

Use your favourite handicapping technique to separate.
Try & go for value where possible.

These RadioTAB Top 2 win a lot of races in the first 3 races of the day.

If you can get that 60% bet on the right horse of the 2 , then you will clean up.

Treat it like a 2 horse race.

A number will be odds-on but it is not uncommon to see the other one knock it off a juicy prices.

Some of the winners have been double digit prices.

It may look simple, but its not easy picking the right one of the 2 Horses .

I feel you have a stronger chance of showing a profit doing it this way.
If you strike the right horse of the 2 selections.

Either way , you should not lose much if you consistently pick the wrong one, because you have the other one also working for you.
The SR will be approx 48% of one of these 2 Horses winning.

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Cheers.

Bhagwan, do you have any figures to back up your claim of a 48% strike rate on this?

Whilst I accept that there are many here much further down the "Track" than me (no pun intended)

I am amazed at how some dissect the Stats in this way, don't you realise that is exactly how the "Bookie" maintains his edge? i.e. don't think in terms of a Month or a year or a track or this and that etc etc etc

The FACT is that 30% of Favs win, overall over many thousands of results, providing a loss of about 15% ON t/o, LIKEWISE, 21% of 3-1 shots win showing a loss of , would yer believe it, about 15-16% on turnover etc etc etc. i.e the profit has already been taken folks B4 you have placed your bet!

Like the machine says : THIS MACHINE GUARANTEES TO PAY OUT 85%, meaning, this machine GUARANTEES to take 15% of every dollar that goes in the slot!! come ******** or high water!

Yes I do.

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Cheers.

Yes party 30% of Favs win.
One could call it a recurring factor, one of the very few in racing stats.
But
Take out all the <=2.00 shots
and the figure becomes 25%

The Machine also makes another 3.5% on the rounding down of the nearest
10 cents which one if forbidden to do in the retail sector.
Yet legal in this instance- funny that
That then makes it now 18.5%
As shown in the Betchoice markets at the bottom for each TAB.

Most punters will find, when they eventually hit a winner, it generally pays less from when the bet was made on the TAB.
When it loses , its price becomes greater.
Why is it so?

There's a 90 sec loop of time for all bets to be settled.
Meaning the price can still change while the race is running, for the next 90 secs.

The TAB punter is certainly up against it with that stuff going on- crazy.

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Cheers.

Hi Sir Smiley? Thanks for your explanation.

I wonder what the results are for the last 3/4 races on the card?