Not saying nuthin', Chrome!

Except that I think we will have to do some watching of dividends and how to decide the favourite. Just had a quick look at UniTAB and both your suggestions for Races 2 & 3 from Bulli were favourites on UniTAB!!

On the other hand, the Gosford winner, while favourite, paid only $1.00!!

I usually try to keep both UniTAB and NSWTab open; but the prices certainly fluctuate like mad things nearing post time --- or worse still you wait to 0 minutes, place your bet, and then the race is 3 minutes late and the market has changed out of sight

I'm using the Vic TAB website at the 0 minute mark for recording.

Even though the market can change dramatically after that, I'm still finding that most of the earlier favourites are winning.
In other words, if they get displaced at -2 min they still win at around $2.80 or $3.00.
Other than that the firmer faves remain favourite.

BENDIGO
R3 1 Unique Blend $2.10
STOP PROFIT

CESSNOCK
R2 8 Roaring silence $2.40
STOP PROFIT

ANGLE PARK
R1 6 Dakota Rio -
R3 1 Hunter Bale -
R5 1 Totally Carrumba -
R6 1 Blitzen Sarah -
R7 1 Viter Pirate -
R8 8 Sonic Victory -
R11 8 Sheza Lexus -
No Winner - No Profit

SANDOWN PARK
R1 1 San Quentin -
R2 7 White Tip Gypsy -
R3 2 Born Yesterday -
R4 7 Zambora Boy $2.20
STOP PROFIT

DAPTO
R2 2 Light Infantry $1.50
STOP PROFIT

HOBART
R1 1 Lone Thunder $2.40
STOP PROFIT

ALBION PARK
R2 2 Hitech King -
R3 4 Little Looker $3.20 (empty box beside)
STOP PROFIT


Outlay 17 units
Return 13.8 units
LOT -18.82%

First loss on turnover and first meeting not to have a winner :sad:

Still.....

SINCE USING AMENDED RULES
Outlay 80 units
Return 85.70 units
7.12% POT using TAB prices



[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2004-01-29 23:04 ]

Perhaps this is time to amend the rules to Merriguys suggestion which would then look like this....

SINGLETON
R2 Mint Solo -
R6 Amy Star -
LOSS

CRANBOURNE
R4 Nadey Bear $3.60
STOP PROFIT

BULLI
R3 November Shiraz $1.50
STOP PROFIT

ALBION PARK
R2 Fay La Fleur -
R3 What Price Glory $3.10
STOP PROFIT

GEELONG
R3 Sunsera Fire -
R5 Lindale Express $1.90
STOP PROFIT

RICHMOND
R2 Rivette Reason -
R4 Kid Sloy $1.60
STOP PROFIT

WANGARATTA
R3 Mooney Ebony -
R5 Gallant Blaze $1.70
STOP PROFIT

BENDIGO
R3 Ikari Rapid -
R4 Lotsa Whoha $2.00
STOP PROFIT

WENTY PARK
R1 Brilliant Hand $2.20
STOP PROFIT

THE MEADOWS
R1 Triden Season $2.60
STOP PROFIT

CANNY PARK
R1 Bally Haige $1.70
STOP PROFIT

CANBERRA
R7 Silent Junior $2.10
STOP PROFIT

WARRAGUL
R2 1 Royal Incline $1.90
STOP PROFIT

TRARALGON
R2 Hello Pete -
R4 Ima Wild Child -
LOSS

NOWRA
R4 Typical Storm $2.60
STOP PROFIT

SHEPPARTON
R3 Govidius -
R6 Proven Serene -
LOSS

ANGLE PARK
R2 Rapid Class $3.50
STOP PROFIT

RICHMOND
R2 Always Lying -
R3 Braewood -
LOSS

WENTY PARK
R1 Spring Secret -
R2 Fancy Candy $1.80
STOP PROFIT

LAUNCESTON
R1 What's Up Doc -
R2 Thelma Kelly $2.90
STOP PROFIT

ALBION PARK
R1 Smiles Are Free $3.00
STOP PROFIT

GAWLER
R3 1 Shezniak -
R10 1 Kernaghan Bale -
LOSS

DEVONPORT
R3 2 Midnight Saga -
R4 1 Flying Fort $1.30
STOP PROFIT

HORSHAM
R4 6 Clutha Bale - (empty box beside)
R6 8 Marbo Boom -
LOSS

GOLD COAST
R4 1 Raven Petite -
R7 5 Surf Lorian $1.90 (empty box beside)
STOP PROFIT

LISMORE
R1 2 Major Go Fast -
R3 2 Energy Master $2.80
STOP PROFIT

WARRAGUL
R5 7 Dalhunty Bale $2.10
STOP PROFIT

GOSFORD
R2 8 Run Joshie Run $1.80
STOP PROFIT

IPSWICH
R1 8 Shadow Fantasy -
R7 1 Boo's Choice $1.70
STOP PROFIT

GOSFORD
R2 8 Fort Worth $1.60
STOP PROFIT

GOLD COAST
R3 8 Railroad Ghost $2.20
STOP PROFIT

WARRNAMBOOL
R4 8 Track Special $2.00
STOP PROFIT

BALLARAT
R2 1 Ruin Me Not $1.40
STOP PROFIT

BULLI
R2 2 Unique Girl -
R3 3 Furious George -
LOSS

IPSWICH
R2 1 Newfound Ace $2.00
STOP PROFIT

BENDIGO
R3 1 Unique Blend $2.10
STOP PROFIT

CESSNOCK
R2 8 Roaring silence $2.40
STOP PROFIT

ANGLE PARK
R1 6 Dakota Rio -
R3 1 Hunter Bale -
LOSS

SANDOWN PARK
R1 1 San Quentin -
R2 7 White Tip Gypsy -
LOSS

DAPTO
R2 2 Light Infantry $1.50
STOP PROFIT

HOBART
R1 1 Lone Thunder $2.40
STOP PROFIT

ALBION PARK
R2 2 Hitech King -
R3 4 Little Looker $3.20 (empty box beside)
STOP PROFIT

Outlay 63 units
Return 72.10 units
POT 14.44%

__________________
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Hi Chrome Prince,
This is an interesting concept and I used something similar quite a few years ago (6 I think) on the gallops where you backed the Fav starting at race once (for each meeting)and continued until you got a winner at which time you'd achieve your target and stop for the day. However, I didn't have a STOP break in it and subsequently lost the whole bank when I struck a non-fav day after about 3 months of continuous winning days. I thought I'd found 'IT' until it crashed heavily on me.

So this 'stopping if a winner does not come within a certain number of bets ' is quite necessary (and I don't know why I didn't even think of it back then - guess I was getting carried away with winning all the time and felt it didn't need it).

The results for 'stopping at 2' obviously helps but what does 3 or 4 do to the results?

__________________
Regards

Hi Michaelv,

The main difference here in stopping at 2 losses versus a gallops scenario, is the importance of box draw which gives a better strike rate along with the small field size.

Unless you had some pretty tight rules at the gallops, stopping at two losses would probably work out worse as the favourite strike rate is worse.

Yesterday's Results....

SINGLETON
R3 1 Hailstone Heaven -
R5 1 Mint Surprise -
LOSS

CRANBOURNE
R3 1 Kolliwobble $1.70
STOP PROFIT

CASINO
R2 8 Master Chance $2.80
STOP PROFIT

ALBION PARK
R2 1 Runaway Havoc $2.20
STOP PROFIT

GEELONG
R6 1 Regal Ricky $3.10
STOP PROFIT

RICHMOND
R2 8 Sports Pro -
R5 1 Paragon Power -
LOSS

RUNNING TOTAL
Outlay 71 units
Return 81.90 units
POT 15.35%