I've had an idea for a while that I've never tested but wonder if anyone else has. basically as we know only 30% of favs or pre-post favs (what we used to call paper favs)win and backing them all always produces a loss. Now with all sorts of filters etc we continue the quest to turn it into the "elusive" Well my idea is to concentrate on the races that are discarded, i.e. bcoz the stats tell us that the % drops under certain conditions.

Maybe concentrating on the next 2 or three in betting or betting the field agains the fav (as offered by IAS etc.
Rough eg. say we have isolated a particular parameter where the pick under those conditions produces a loss of 60% on T/O, then we could back the field against it and produce a profit overall??? any comments??

Partypooper,

Dont bother with IAS - just lay the selection on Betfair! I have actually been looking at trying to identify the "false" favourites with exactly this intention - ie. laying them on Betfair.

One approach may be to look for someone claiming a "sure thing" on this forum then laying that horse - the jinx should make sure the selection wont win :smile:

I have one approach that seems to be producing about a 50% LOT which should translate to at least a 30% profit from laying on Betfair. Still need a bit more data to build up the confidence level so I am not putting big $$$ on it yet.

__________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

Becareful, thanks for the feedback was beginning to think that my chosen username had scared all off! It was only chosen, because all the methods I've come across fall in a heap when subjected.!!!! But on this one, why against IAS,??? (I've never used them so I don't know)

I heard a few negatives about betfair,(on this site) but I presume all is ok there now?? Anyway you seem to have a few of the same thoughts as me about looking at the "failure rate" , as it were" it's a bit different as you are looking for the sels. that probably won't win and then try and back against them. Just for a starting point
lets say, how do pre-post favs. fare say when quoted @ 4-1 or above, with a lousy draw, that havent raced for more than 21 days, finished more than 3.5 lenghts from the winner last start, and don't have awin in there last 4 starts??? thats just a start.

Partypooper,

I have nothing against IAS - I use their Diviplus option most Saturdays with some of my selections. The problem with their field bet is that they only publicise it on a few races so your betting options are very limited - with Betfair you could potentially do this on every race they cover which means you can pick and choose to get the best races. Also I suspect, although I haven't checked, that you will generally do much better odds-wise laying the horse on Betfair than taking the field option with IAS.

Betfair seems to have got their act together with the site reliability over the last week - doing better than Tabcorp today which still hasn't got any races listed for today at 11:20!

__________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

There are some great UK Flat statistics available on favourites which cover many criteria. Just wondering how similar our Aussie races would be to their flat season?? Based on UK results it would seem the most reliable favs are Maidens, 2YO, stakes, and small fields (10 or less).

I found this link particularly interesting http://www.flatstats.co.uk/art**********************vourites_1.html

Any thoughts?

[ This Message was edited by: shy on 2003-04-04 12:55 ]

Hello Shy,

Some time ago I did an in depth study of U.K. racing results and formlines.

Suffice to say that most data does not translate well to Australia whatsoever.

Be very careful when adopting U.K. strategies to Australia and vice versa.

I still haven't quite worked out why this is - but I left it alone and dumped it in the too hard basket.
I figured I would concentrate on one country only.
Perhaps the closest racing would be that of Hong Kong.

U.S. racing is pretty much different given their sand and dirt tracks too.

The only common factor was that still only around 30% of favourites win - no matter where you are in the world.

I have been using Betfair to lay ALL horses that I can that are under 2/1, stopping when I'm in front. A nice tax-free income. Haven't laid any runners o/s because I don't have access to the calls so don't know what the results are like. I am looking forward to laying runners for the place on the Grand National tomorrow night, even though they pay 1-2-3-4, last year only 4 runners finished the course out of 40 something.

Shy

Those fav stats are telling. It has been demonstrated on here before that it easier to win on shorter priced horses than long priced no-hopers. The following link contains exhaustive stats on almost every angle a race can be looked at.

http://www.adrianmassey.co.uk/

Mark

The above link provides ratings for every race on every race day in the UK. The link below provides live bookmaker betting fluctuations for those races.

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/liveshows/

Well, all I can say for certain is DO NOT TRY AND ALIGN UK STATS WITH RACING IN AUSTRALIA, b4 I lost all my cash on UK racing and now I lose all my cash on Australian racing "THAT" is where the similarality ends!!
Just walk out on an English racecourse and you will know immediately, the underfoot conditions bear no resemblance.

Sorry about the negatives there but I strongly suspect that many of the "successfull" personalities on this this site are related to "Walter"

I agree with you Partypooper. Walter Russo, Tina, Christine et al are still alive and well on this site and others.

It is for this reason I no longer post as refrequently as it is hard to determine legitimate posts.