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  #31  
Old 22nd May 2013, 11:02 PM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rinconpaul
Using what ever method, with one bet, do you think you can make a profit of about one quarter of one per cent per day? I can hear you all the way back in Canberra, "I can make heaps more than that...!!!" The money in your savings account is making a hundredth of one percent per day.
Time will tell RP; I am 14 trials into a day-to-day experiment whereby I am targeting 3.2% return on bank(ROB !). Didn't start out as one bet per day but is fast ending up this way. Means I get out whilst ahead or cut any loss quick smart.

Seems to be working OK thus far...
=> 100 units at start
=> col 1 = running balance
=> col 2 = 3.2% target per day
=> target exceeded = 9 trials(64%)

1... 132.7..103.2
2... 149.2..106.4
3... 166.5..109.6
4... 178.4..112.8
5... 170.3..116.0
6... 176.4..119.2
7... 140.9..122.4
8... 121.5..125.6
9... 121.9..128.8
10. 132.8..132.0
11. 157.0..135.2
12. 161.5..138.4
13. 168.3..141.6
14. 198.5..144.8

Cheers LG
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  #32  
Old 23rd May 2013, 10:10 AM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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Originally Posted by Rinconpaul
Sorry LG this one is updated right up to date in XL 2003
RP
Alas Sir.. this one still cannot be opened in the 2003v, not even with the might of Excalibur!

LG
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  #33  
Old 23rd May 2013, 10:12 AM
demodocus demodocus is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rinconpaul
Later in Feb 2012 Bhagwan amended his earlier edict and it became:
"Only Dutch if Fav is $3.25+". Fact or Fiction?

A: Part Fiction

Of the last 55 no. >$30 BF Back priced winners, 50% were > $3.25 Tatts price.

So we're starting to see a useful filter emerge. Confidence can be gained by only Dutching races wherein the Fav is $4.00+. this is confirmed by long term stats wherein Fav's $4.00+ only win < 21% of the time so the luck is more spread amongst the other horses.
It's uncanny that longshots appear more often when the Fav is an average of $3.00 (29% Win S/R). Anyone got a theory on that?
RP

I suspect you'll find that Field Size has a lot to do with this as FS seems to work linearly on the Fav. Price. Looking at Sat Metro it runs from 35.1% with FS8 to 26% at FS 16. A 29%WSR occurs at FS 11 which is the roughly average Field AllOz. Fascinating stuff .... thanks for the thought provoking thread.
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  #34  
Old 23rd May 2013, 10:42 AM
Rinconpaul Rinconpaul is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
Alas Sir.. this one still cannot be opened in the 2003v, not even with the might of Excalibur!

LG
This is right up to date
Attached Files
File Type: xls $30 plus Betfair winners Excel 2003.xls (85.5 KB, 370 views)
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  #35  
Old 23rd May 2013, 11:14 AM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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Thanks mate. Very interesting findings in there, especially with FU runners in the sprints.

Cheers LG
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  #36  
Old 23rd May 2013, 12:33 PM
SpeedyBen SpeedyBen is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
Thanks mate. Very interesting findings in there, especially with FU runners in the sprints.

Cheers LG
And that has been happening for as long as I can remember. Until BF arrived it was hard to find a way to profit from the regular longshot winners. I'm not certain that it is possible now but getting 60 points over the tote odds, as happened yesterday, gives it a chance.
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