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never smile at a crocodile -- don't be taken in by his welcome grin

Post deleted. Please do not make allegations here about what is posted on other forums. Thanks.

ixlato,

One of the reasons you could be losing long-term is because you are over complicating things.

If you have an edge, it means your selection method will return a profit betting level stakes.

All this talk about "taming, beast, control" etc makes no sense and is probably confusing you somewhat. Make it more simple for yourself, if you make a profit while betting level stakes, it means you have an edge. Then you can start changing staking plans to maximise profits.

You are correct about drawdowns, but that is basic bank management which you should really have under control before you even consider punting.

Chrome prince,

What you are now saying is something completely different.

If he no longer has any selections after the maiden races are finished, then he has no selections. That is not stopping. That means there is no more selections.

However, if he still has selections after the maiden races are finished and stops, then he is stopping. And if he is stopping, of course maths will be involved. It means he is not maximising his profits.

wesmip1,

While I understand your post had the best of intentions, I still think I need to clarify something for you.

Just because your bank blanace is increasing, it does not mean your method has a long-term edge.

Even a method that loses long-term will have strong winning periods.

Todays Pot of Platinum contenders.


14:00 par R02 # 2 Fox Solid Pot of Platinum
14:35 par R03 # 6 Lester Cove Pot of Platinum
15:10 par R04 # 6 Corley Moor Pot of Platinum
15:45 par R05 # 3 American Tale Pot of Platinum
16:57 par R07 # 7 Chatterchic Pot of Platinum
17:35 par R08 # 2 Coco Kerringle Pot of Platinum
15:40 pij R01 # 1 Super Hawk Pot of Platinum
16:17 pij R02 # 1 Ranger Pot of Platinum
16:52 pij R03 # 1 Aylesford Pot of Platinum
18:07 pij R05 # 6 Hard Candy Pot of Platinum
18:45 pij R06 # 2 Easy Rider Pot of Platinum
18:45 pij R06 # 6 Lipton Pot of Platinum
19:25 pij R07 # 5 Golden Heart Pot of Platinum
19:25 pij R07 #11 Werd Pot of Platinum
20:05 pij R08 # 4 Amelias Dancer Pot of Platinum
13:45 pol R01 # 1 Hightom Pot of Platinum
13:45 pol R01 # 6 Comic Cat Pot of Platinum
14:20 pol R02 # 1 Firer Me Pot of Platinum
14:55 pol R03 # 5 Busterwabbit Pot of Platinum
14:55 pol R03 # 6 Extreme Ways Pot of Platinum
16:09 pol R05 # 6 Jail Strait Pot of Platinum
16:44 pol R06 # 1 Gallipoli Beach Pot of Platinum
17:20 pol R07 # 5 Heart Of Stone Pot of Platinum
13:30 sun R01 # 2 Moon Lady Pot of Platinum
14:40 sun R03 # 3 Craiglea Falcon Pot of Platinum
15:15 sun R04 # 1 Metaphysical Pot of Platinum
15:50 sun R05 # 5 Intadom Pot of Platinum
15:50 sun R05 # 6 Pointe Dancer Pot of Platinum
17:44 sun R08 # 2 Guns Pot of Platinum

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toa

I think that any punter who lacks discipline and relies upon stopping at a certain point in their day should give the game away until they can master the discipline side of things. Punters who lack discipline will give it all back in the end. Nothing is surer.

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toa

As for stopping at a given point in the day I think this is madness. I have an edge and I want to maximize that edge. An edge in punting is hard enough to find without taking only a part time advantage of that edge.

If the strategy does NOT have a long term edge, then it doesn't matter how you slice up the punting continuum, 12 to 2, 1 to 3, 2 to 4 or so on, the negative expectation will catch up with you long term and YOU WILL LOSE. Unless of course you add one of Darky's sure-fire strategies such as cutting out all horses with an R in their name. That might make it work!

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toa

You keep talking about edge but these selections constantly show a loss on level stakes, thus no edge.

How can there be an edge if level stakes show a loss ?

Post deleted. Large bold type is shouting. Not here please.

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toa