Not criticizing you personally Crash, I think your contributions here are excellent and I have great respect for them, but when I made the offer to Mark I had something completely different in mind, but that turned out to be the wrong answer too.. So nobody's perfect...

I'd make the same offer to anyone I thought knew what they were talking about..

Kind Regards
OzPunter

Maverick1993, sorry if this reply is a bit late, I've been in the Philippines for 3 months and just catching up with things.

Those results you posted are fantastic to say the least and whilst we all know there is no guarantee of a repeat you'd have to be pretty confident.

I noticed that the LLR was 3 (I think) so a very simple side staking plan of 1/5th of the bank NEVER REDUCING would surely have made a fortune wouldn't it? say starting with $500 i.e. $100 first bet.

A bit tired tonight can't be bothered to do the mathes.

Any further info greatly appreciated either here, or to Lumbasakabayo AT hotmale dot com

this guy Mav speaks of goes by the moniker of "Taj" on another forum. He freely posts his ratings & even has a mailing list going. He's very astute to say the least, over the 2 years i've been visiting the forum.

However, I did notice a few times when he claims a price for a winner that just isnt freely available on raceday. This ups the POT a little but the actual results are fair dinkum i believe.

Years ago when i was more into punting I did this very method myself. Pick the best value bet of your top-raters for the day (i only ever bothered with Sats). The strike rate was 40%+ & very healthy POT over the period. If your own assessments are providing you with profits, i do suggest putting aside a smaller bank to play this best-value bet method with 4% bets. Its a good bit of fun.

Excellent post.

I'd say it's extremely similar to my ethic as well.
Laying suits my punting personality far better than backing ever will.
Some of what Mark has posted could be an interview with a seasoned professional punter - they seem to get spoilt, bored and dislike risk.
They get used to profits and don't like hiccups.

__________________
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I've noticed recently a hell of a lot of decent plunges being successful.
It never used to be this regular.
There is something in the air for sure.

In answer to the second part - how is the answer.
Ordinary Joe Punter does not have the same information as the key players.
We are not privvy to closed or private trials.
Ever noticed in a race with two runners from the same stable that the more fancied runner will get all the publicity, while the second runner gets a mention of "should go o.k."
It's not until after the race is won the interview goes something like "he had been beating horse A easily in trackwork, but there was a (distance,barrier,going,weight) query."



I believe that true professional punters don't read forums in general, because it takes away from their A game. Also why they don't contribute.
Whilst I'm sure that there are pros on many forums including this one, you won't see the big boys here because they have developed a successful strategy that works, so there is no reason to confuse the issue with people still struggling to grasp what the pros already have or do.

Myself, I am a very small player in a big pond.
The real pros would probably turnover more in a race meeting than I do per month. But from my point of view, I have a formula for laying - every time I try something different or deviate from my normal area of expertise, I cop a hiding and go back to what I do best.

I've learned the hard way, head down, bum up and do what I do best in one area. It's boring, but it works.

__________________
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Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

No mystery as to why Spark of Life won. It was the class horse [by far] of the race and would have won on 3 legs. The odds reflected this fact too as would have any half decent formguide.

There are plenty of other class horses that should win on three legs - but they don't because of one reason or another. I think that's the point OzPunter is getting at. "we" don't know which is which.

Horse could be off colour, out of sorts, behind in fitness, nursing slight injury, not living up to previous trackwork, or blitzing easily carving out best times of it's career.

I remember Filante racing at odds on in NSW and not running a place. Was perfectly ridden, but something just wasn't right. Should have won by at least 5 lengths based on class and form.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

So what do we do, ignore form and all become system punters?
I had a very nice collect on SOL thanks.

Well Said Chrome Prince;

OzPunter

Well most "systems" are based on past statistics which are just that, Past! there's no saying that the future will perform as the past ask the farmers and see if rainfall lives up to statictics..

If there's one thing I know for sure it that horses cannot read the tote board and figure out where they're supposed to finish and no horse was ever good a statistical maths...

They hate stats too... after all they're only human..

Kind Regards
OzPunter