The A/E Value Index is more useful than straight Impact Values. More work thought.

C. X. Wong's book "Precision: Statistical and Mathematical Methods in Horse Racing" is a nice addition to your Kindle. Various techniques introduced that some may find of value.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

ubetido, in answer to your original question.

I was in a similar position to chrome, even the Penthouse club and the trots!! I didn't have the big wins as chrome did, and drifted to the grey hounds. I followed the horses and all the formguides I could lay my hands on were scrutiised within an inch of their life. I gathered data on prices (a horse running well at 25's and in this race it's 6's), and all other sorts of filters one could imagine. All that these filters did was give me a loss of 10% to 15% regularly, but I k ew I was getting closer each time. Never happened.

The lightbulb moment came when I reaslised that each horse is unique and each race is different. You cannot arbitrarily apply the same rules to all horses and expect them all to respond in the same manner. To say horse must have started withing 14 days logically picks out those that have run at a metro track two weeks ago, but doesn't take inot account horses that like a little freshen up. You need to see if the days break suits your horse by looking back. The old 7 day back up isn't particularly suited to mares. Now I'm not a weights man at all, how can you argue a kilo here and a kilo there on a 600kg horse. Give away the meaningless stuff like barriers, weight, track etc and look at the big picture and that's the fitness of the horse. If you're backing a horse that's near enough to peak fitness, then just hope the trainer has selected the right race, and you're in business ..... luck in running is under rated.

Always look through the trainers eyes for the horse that might improve.

Don't follow the crowd.

As chrome prince has said repeatedly .... why wouldn't you look around for the best odds??

Hi all

Some great stories there and i would dare to say we have all had similar experiences to reach the top of the hill. Along the way we have taken different routes by ultimately have got there.

I recall a punter called Bert i think was in the media and forums a while back, had that get into the trainers head approach by all accounts he was successful from what was indicated.

It takes a small twist to something others already know but haven't thought outstide the square.

Regards
Ubetido

__________________
Life should NOT be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in an attractive and well preserved body,but rather to skid in sideways, BEER in one hand- PIZZA in the other, body thoroughly used up, totally worn out and screaming WOO HOO!

Yes i remember him, hahaha

This one here?
http://www.propun.com.au/racing_for...ght=bert+bogert

Yes, that's the one.

I think there was another thread on here as well, look for 777 or bert

Why is it that some decent threads start when I'm not around?
A rainy early evening in here in the Big Apple so I figured I'd pen some thoughts.

My story begins around 1975, I went to school not far from Randwick Racecourse and at age 14 weighed in at 7.5 stone (50kg) and had a mate who worked part-time with horses. (my first bet was 50c e/w on a horse called Baden Baden which duly won at 6/4 and I was hooked) He got me in with a trainer, and we'd walk/ride horses round the streets and in Centennial Park before and after school. This progressed to slow work but ended when neither of us could get an apprenticeship. I remember being lined up against a wall with my mate, and Graeme Robson & Gavan Duffy, and being told that the 2 of us wouldn't last long as we hadn't started growing yet. I was tiny but the "Duff" only came up to my chin. So we both left the game, as the thought of just riding trackwork never appealled, and the guy who rejected us was right as over the next 2 years or so we both "ballooned' to around 10 stone (63kg). I'm proud to say that now at 50 years old I'm still only 67kg. So that's the interest in horses. When I left school the only subject I passed was maths, not all the geometric, algorythmic, calculus stuff, just the basics, I was (and still am reasonably) quick at working out in my head multiplication and long division. Had 1 term at Uni studying Accountancy (boring !!!) so left and got an apprenticeship as a chef, bad move weight wise, but good move punt wise as the pastry chef was a mad punter who intoduced me to all sorts of weights/measures studies, systems and most importantly Don Scott. Whenever I had a Saturday or Wednesday off I'd be madly doing the form the night before, comparing as many horses as I could to others to work out what should be the top raters. I also followed horses from Barrier Trials as well as first uppers from the Mayfield-Smith & Cummings' stables.
Funny how we remember the good days and here's a few of them. One Wednesday I had 3 "specials" and 1 of Bart's first up that had run well in a trial. I can't remember the name of the first but it won at 5/1 with my $20 e/w on it. The next was a horse from Newcastle called Reign of Terror which duly saluted at 15/1 with my $50 e/w on it. I also had it in a running double for a $1 with Bart's Horse, Cordon Rose in the next, which when it won at 25/1, with my $100 e/w on, paid $1300 (which was the pool, so I was the only winner !) My only other bet won at 4/1 with my $500 e/w on (my biggest one out bet to this day !!!!!), and this 19 or 20 year old went home with a bulging wallet of nearly $8000 profit. Bear in mind that at this time I was on about $100 p/w for slaving for 40 hours. Silly me bought a new car, but you live and learn.
I backed a 200/1 winner in Star of Lanka because it had won a trial, and jagged a $1200 quinella with Belgrave Gem winning at 100/1, ridden by Mark Goeldner, (who I would meet a few years later at Port Macquarie when he moved in next door to a mate, small world) and of course I was on Bart's first starter Plus Vite at 200/1 (won a trial) when it won the "infamous" flag start race at Rosehill.
I was on Razor Sharp at around 25/1 for both his Newmarket wins
(http://racingandsports.tv/viewVideo.asp?vid=Y2&type=0) and even though I had a good win on his second one it was also the the one that got away. I'd backed RS & Foregone Conclusion (both 25/1, FC was Bart first up) e/w and had RS x FC x Field and FC x RS x field in trifecta's.. Jockey Malcolm Pay said that he should have run a clear second but stargazed at the end because he was out on his own.
By this time I had finished my apprenticeship and knew what I was never going to do again as a job, and was pretty much living off the punt topped up by the dole, but it was a full time job (pre computers) just doing the form for Wed's & Sat's having form cards and guides all over the house. At around this time I became friendly with a guy who was working for one of the big bookies in Sydney and was moving on and suggested I apply to take his place. So I did and got it. I did have a headstart as my whole life at that time was based around racing percentages and after a little test calculating odds and payouts I was in. This was the turning point in my life at the track. Although not the smartest bloke around, it seemed the workers did all the work, this bookie was incredible and taught me a lot. He lived in a penthouse suite at Darling Point Sydney, so naturally I thought I was set. After a couple of years I took out my own licence and move to Port Macquarie to make my fortune. I quickly realised that country markets are completely different to metro and I didn't have enough capital, lasting only a year. I didn't lose, just didn't win enough, so went back to working for others and punting on the side. I even became respectable and got a "real" job, a promotion and moved to Qld. 12 years on the job turned to sh1t so it was back to the punt, and then came Betfair. Initially depositing $3000 and quickly losing most of it in the first month I sat back and had a good look around the site and discovered UK racing....pre bots. It was so easy to make no risk books, some days I would find a dozen races where as much as 105% wa ssimply sitting there to be laid. I was on $100 per day no risk, no stress, no tax and in bookmaking heaven. Unfortunately the bots drove away a lot of early punters and now you hardly ever find a market over 100% as they hoover it up straight away.

Which leads me to now...still making a living on Betfair, dodging the Premium Charge where I can (greedy so & so's) and still profiting nearly every day.

Barney......unleashing the beast you are on the right track, (except for not laying) ignoring all the things that everyone else does.

Michaelg......at last you too are on the right track. Forget all the mechanical systems, (every race is different and no mechanical system will ever cover every race, my advice would be to forget backing all together but that's just my opinion.) crossing of fingers, hoping, forum curses, etc your last few posts where you are laying the field for different amounts is the way to steady profits. Using SP is the way to start but with experience you will progress to laying this way up to race time. You'll be amazed at the % you'll be able to lay the field at. This is what I have been doing successfully for years.

Good punting everyone.

I've got to say, this is probably the most interesting thread I've seen in ages.
It's fascinating to see the different, but often similar journeys.
Also gives a bit of personality and insight to a forum name.

__________________
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Wait until you see the next instalment Chrome. Sand R2 5 is a clue.