APOLOGY, APOLOGY, APOLOGY

I was having a look at what would have happened if I had considered races <8 starters and I found out that I had used the wrong figures for Mornington on New Years Day. I had in fact used Morphettville figures!

The results up to and including yesterday (10th January) for fields >= 8 starters are:-

1st fav 64 bets 25 wins S/R 39.1% bank $73.30
2nd fav 64 bets 11 wins S/R 17.2% bank $66.10
3rd fav 63 bets 10 wins S/R 15.9% bank 59.50

Total bets 191 bank $198.90 so I am ahead ($7.90) of schedule!

If I include ALL races results are:-

1st fav 94 bets 29 wins S/R 30.9% bank $100.40
2nd fav 94 bets 20 bets S/R 21.3% bank $126.80
3rd fav 93 bets 17 wins S/R 18.3% bank $92.80

Total bets (All races) 281 bank $320.00 so I would be ahead ($39.00) of schedule as well.

Largest bets and longest losing runs for fields >= 8 starters are

1st fav = $6 - 5
2nd fav = $7 - 15
3rd fav = $18 - 15

Largest bets and longest losing runs for ALL fields are

1st fav = $59 - 7 (twice)
2nd fav = $49 - 16
3rd fav = $18 - 14

POT % (fields>=8) is 44.8%

POT % (All fields) is 35.7%

Hi TTA

Let me just say you are on the right track.

Ubetido

__________________
Life should NOT be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in an attractive and well preserved body,but rather to skid in sideways, BEER in one hand- PIZZA in the other, body thoroughly used up, totally worn out and screaming WOO HOO!

Hi TTA

Nice work. Although this is a lose chasing method at least you have concentrated it at the correct end of the market. You will have some long outs but it will recover relatively quickly. A decent bank will manage your psyche & your draw downs.

I like the fact you are working with 2 racing factors that have stood the test of time...
1. Strike rate of top end fav's
2. Public pricing
You are not trying to 'out-smart' anything.

After 11 days you already had 64 races in your database. Your largest draw downs will be obvious in a few more months of testing.

Have you recorded place S/R? Perhaps this could be applied on PLACE betting. Your recovery bets would sometimes get large but your runs of outs will halve.

The other suggestion I'd like to offer is to pick your races selectively. If a race has 4 or more runners opening under $10 then perhaps it's a good one to skip.

Good luck with this.

__________________
“Everyone’s got a plan. Until they get hit”. -Mike Tyson

I've changed my mind, maybe it is possible.

I've had a look at something myself that has now won 28 days straight (since Boxing day and I haven't checked before that).

The only problem is that it is a loss recovery thing and some of the picks can get quite short. I reckon that the recovery would be in the order of 6 or 7 times the amount to win per day.

What do you guys reckon about loss recovery when there is a losing day with something like that? The reason I ask is that doing that with level stakes would mean 6-7 days before getting back to where you were beforehand.

It would need to be something that a bot could do so not what TTA is doing with his loss recovery as my bot can't do that.

Anyway, just as a general query if there was a daily loss would you go with:
A - Stick with level Stakes (and 6-7 days to get back 1 loss),
B - 2 x level stakes bet (maybe 3 days back to even),
C - Another option (please advise).

Sorry TTA for putting this on your thread but the method is one where one is trying to get $1 a day.

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

Loss chasing........don't do it.

A mild progressive loss chasing plan is fine T.O. providing,
Of course that all your selections dating back to boxing day,
Did one of 2 things.

1) Made a level stakes profit backing every selection.

2) Only just lost, say 1-2% maximum backing every selection.

If neither 1-2 happened then i am in Marks corner.

Cheers.
Gary.

Thanks for the replies guys.

I'm actually not sure if it made a level stakes profit ops: but I would say no - so it may be a no goer. But 28 days straight! Geez! I kept checking every day and I couldn't believe it. I kept saying to myself that this must not be correct, fantasy land. Nah, can't work. This can't be happening. But it did.

Must be running very good I suppose. I'll check a few more weeks back so I can come back to earth (which I'm sure will be with a thud).

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

After 24 days using Victorian non Saturday and non Public Holiday meetings the results show why chasing a loss can be diabolical.

>= 8 starters

1st opening fav
Bets 173
Bank $127.70
largest bet $14
longest losing run 10
current losing run 7 (chasing $46.30)
POT % = 28.2%
Win S/R = 31.2%

2nd opening fav
Bets 173
Bank $45.20
largest bet $88
longest losing run 16
current losing run 3 (chasing $128.80)
POT % = 0.05%
Win S/R = 18.5%

3rd opening fav
bets 172
bank $1611.60
largest bet $725
longest losing run 28
current losing run 0
POT % = 43.1%
Win S/R = 12.8%

With the losing run of 28 bets you turned a bank of $59.50 into a bank of -$2662.50. It needed a winning bet of $725 @$6.90 to turn the process around. You will continue at $1 bets for approximately the next 720 bets, assuming you do not get another winner - which is obviously a bit far fetched - before your bet size would increase.

All starters

1st opening fav
Bets 228
Bank $169.20
largest bet $59
longest losing run 9
current losing run 6 (chasing $59.80)
POT % = 16.7%
Win S/R = 30.7%
3 times the bank has entered into a negative state.

2nd opening fav
Bets 229
Bank $204.20
largest bet $56
longest losing run 16 (twice)
current losing run 3 (chasing $25.80)
POT % = 19.9%
Win S/R = 19.2%
5 times the bank has entered into a negative state

3rd opening fav
bets 227
bank $240.80
largest bet $95
longest losing run 20
current losing run 0
POT % = 30.1%
Win S/R = 15.9%
5 times the bank has entered into a negative state

If anything it would "suggest" following the process irrespective of the number of starters.

Any thoughts?

Need to get the stake % correct vrs SR so you can recover losses effectively
i.e. have some chance of converting them into profits, whilst protecting the bank from going bust

You are treating each Fav as a single strategy it would seem and given the low SR for each, the 'pendulum' will surely wrap around your neck in next to no time. From my experience, a SR of 80%+ makes a progressive play that much easier to manage = to survive it and prosper

Cheers LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

Hows it going TTA

.1% of bank

eg. $1000.......target $1

Seperate bets


Regards
ubetido

__________________
Life should NOT be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in an attractive and well preserved body,but rather to skid in sideways, BEER in one hand- PIZZA in the other, body thoroughly used up, totally worn out and screaming WOO HOO!