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  #1  
Old 2nd October 2002, 03:51 PM
puntz
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Earlier postings show results from Favs. winning is 30 %.
I would like to ask if there has been a finer observation if this 30% is clustered or overall. In other words, the duration of favs. winning and favs. losing, is this let's say on the 1st Wednesday of the month? Is it the 2nd Sat meetings of the month, etc?
Or, is this 30 % over a whole month regardless of what race day.
I ask this question because I have noticed there are days when just alot of Favs. come in, and there are days where the Fav. is no where to be found during the race.
I have also noticed this can happen in clusters, "Favs day" or "Long shots day".
That is my question on the 30% issue, has anyone noticed this or can produce stats. if the favs. win is clustered or fragmented?
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  #2  
Old 3rd October 2002, 11:39 AM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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I have stats on 20,000 races .
That 30% is based on year end to year end.
Over every single race run.
The percentage does not alter by more than 1% ever since the 1950`s since records have been keept. inspite of all the wiz bang computer age , the stats refuse to be denied,

You can see why so many systems sold, revolve around the Fav.

For evey run of clustered wins , there will be a cluster of outs.
Regardless of track conditions.

The max No. of outs you should expect backing venue to venue (across the card) is 20 in a row.

The average POT (Profit on turnover) is -20%
Loss on turnover backing the Fav in the last race of any meeting is -5% , the strike rate is the same at 30%.

The winning percentage of Favs who had also won their previous start is 35%

Favs in hurdle races win 40%

And on & on ,I could go , so I will stop now ,before anyone starts developing a bubble on their head trying to take it all in at once.


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  #3  
Old 3rd October 2002, 08:47 PM
puntz
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Thanks,good reference, can be used.
Cheers
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