i would like to exand my letter to the flat stakers.i do not apologize in any way for my previous comments as i believe you flat stakers are working on invalid information .the true strike rate inreality for the various odds ranges are1/1=46pc.10/9=47pc5/4=40 11/8=40 6/4=37 13/8=35 7/4=32 15/8=33 2/1=30 9/4=29 5/2=26 11/4=23 3/1=25 13/4=20 7/2=19 15/4=21 4/1=19 9/2=16 5/1=14.ie 6/4 chances should win 40pc but they dont 2/1 should win 33pc but they dont.you will have to be a substantially better handicapper than most to make money at flat stakes and how many in any honesty can make claim to that..how many good methods have been lost because they didnt win at level stakes.or thrown away because of misinformation.proffessionals like myself spend their lifetimes reading learning and experimenting.gambling is the science of mathematics.please forum members get the right information.get commnsense punting by dedman or flutters by robson.try racebooks australia.as for me i will try to pass on quality info to the battlers out there but by god it can be frustrating.

darkydog,

Can you please explain how if a system has a longterm strike rate of 30% forever and a day and the average dividend is $3.00 - that is a loss on turnover of 10% - how you can stake it to strike a profit when the recognized maximum run of outs for the strike rate is 20 which can occur randomly and including the pattern 20 losses 2 wins 20 losses.

The only possible way to turn a profit would be to compound winning runs or sets of bets as I see it, but if you can think of any other angle I'd be keen to hear.


[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-11-19 17:07 ]

winning runs and losing runs come in clusters .the secret lies in mathematical stratification.we take advantage of winning runs and cut back our bets in the losing run periods.this can be worked out mathematically.since the research belongs to malcolm knowles ifeel i am not at liberty to disclose it.not only copyright but malcolm should gain some financial benefit for the many years he put into coming up with it.fairs fair dont you think.hell. you can get his whole thinking behind it for 14.95. i am sorry that i cant be more specific than that.as for malcolm and as for any one i deal with on this website the ideas they may wish to share with me remain that .confidential.

That's all fine, I understand all that copyright etc.

Surely mathematical probability and statistical fact can't be copyright though.

The laws of random probability means that the number of sequential runs is exactly the same as the number of random sequences.

Example.

win-win-win-win-loss-win-win-win

will happen as often as..

win-loss-win-loss-win-loss-win

or as often as ...

loss-loss-loss-loss-loss-loss.

If this were not true, you would have a winning system for ROULETTE.


Further data....
Length of losing streak Frequency Expected Frequency for strike rate of 30%
0 81 90.50999999999999
1 58 63.29399999999999
2 37 44.26169999999998
3 27 30.952319999999993
4 20 21.645014999999993
5 19 15.136384199999993
6 8 10.584880529999994
7 11 7.402004483999996
8 4 5.176214817899997
9 5 3.619718547899998
10 1 2.531260706288998
11 2 1.7701029003335986
12 1 1.237826314385429
14 1 0.6053140925177319
16 1 0.2960057125834357
17 1 0.2069946313458165
20 1 0.07078371943261151
21 1 0.04949833447506056



In other words, over 10,000 bets everything will even out to your average strike rate and dividend. You will have good days and bad days if your overall system doesn't show a level stakes profit. However, in the long run you can't win.

I have done mathematical models on this years ago, which ever way you slice it it's still the same cake.

It's just like chipping up in BlackJack - in the longrun it doesn't work unless you can change the odds or strike rate in your favour somehow.

[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-11-20 17:55 ]

[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-11-20 17:58 ]

I have to agree with Equine Investor on this one. Taking advantage of "winning runs" and cutting back bets on "losing runs" sounds great in theory but how do you know in advance whether you are going to have a winning run or a losing run with the next sequence of bets? If you have a 30% strike rate then the chance of any bet winning is 30% - it doesn't matter if you have had 10 losing bets in a row or 10 winning bets the chance of the next bet winning is still the same.

I have NEVER seen any mathematical proof that a staking plan can improve your POT in the long run when you include the maximum potential run of outs in the equation. Lots of people will give examples of how Plan XYZ turns a given sequence of bets from a 10% LOT to a 20% POT but this is not a proof - I can just as easily come up with a hypothetical bet sequence that gives a higher POT with level stakes. In the short term the profit chasing plans will increase the POT but once you hit the maximum run of outs that the plan can sustain your POT will drop back to the same level as flat stakes (or will bankrupt you entirely, depending on the system).

__________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

Darkydog. Why don't you just come clean and flog this bloke's book unashamedly. Any "professional" will tell you that flat staking is often preached but rarely followed. Most "professionals" don't have the discipline to stake at level sums - everyone puts a little more on when they feel that their neddy is a little bit special. But mathematically, if a system loses at flat stakes, it's a loser full stop. You can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear by varying your bets.
You say, reduce your losing bets and load up on the winning bets - that's fine, which are the winning bets?

Here`s a method that is designed to minimise the dredded run of outs & maximise the profits based on the price range mentioned.

One follows their selections for the day until one gets up , then start your 1st bet on your next selection , if it looses , bet on your next selection , if it wins , stop betting , one waits for the next selection to get up before commencing again .

We only follow a max. of 2 loosing bets in a row, then wait for one of our selections gets up , before commencing betting again.

You will find that horses in the $5.00 & less range have a habit of bunching a cluster of wins together , then you will see some longer runs in between the next cluster.
Almost any staking plan works with this .

It even works following the paper favorites , state to state at level stakes & still shows a profit where normally it would show a 20% loss because of the runs of outs.

It chops your number of bets down by 70% but minimises long runs of outs ,so as to make a profit, which is the objective of the exercise.

The biggest killer with this plan is having old fashioned patience , which most punters don`t have much of , but it works .

Check it out.

__________________
Cheers.

obviously you fellows have never used it.i can lead ahorse to water but i cant make it drink.still good luck to you flat stakers because you are sure going to need it.topic closed.

MESSAGE FOR RAIN LOVER.

I have inadvertantly wiped your email address and wish to send you something relative to the summary and spreadsheets I got from you (actually I think on another forum) If you don't mind could you please get back to me.
Thanks heaps.
sabu@northnet.com.au