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  #1  
Old 15th April 2014, 08:45 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Default RaceCensus - Value Favourites

One of the systems included with the database is called Value Favourites.

These are the results so far this year:

01/01/2014-15/04/2014

Races Bet: 88
Races Won: 37
S.R./Race: 42.0%
Outlay($): 88.00
Return : 96.20
$ Profit : 8.20
% P.O.T. : 9.3%

We're beating the TAB takeout by 9.30% and this isn't even utlilising Best Tote or Betfair
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RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 399,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/03/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
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  #2  
Old 15th April 2014, 10:00 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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and a nice strike rate too
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  #3  
Old 16th April 2014, 08:43 AM
mattio mattio is offline
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I run a similar system CP that looks at the PP favourite that also ends up the NSWTAB favourite, I only run it on Saturday Metro meetings but since the start of 2012 it has given me just under 300 selections for a 47% S/R and 31% POT.

However, as it is a system based around the favourite it is very hard to automate since sometimes the favourite isn't absolutely known until after the start so there are races where I simply can't bet because the 1st and 2nd favourite are just too close together. Or the other issue is I see a 3rd or 4th favourite being heavily backed late that ends up running favourite, I can't bet in these races either since the favourite will likely have changed from the time I place the bet.

Favourite systems can be tough to operate but they can be very rewarding, CP is your system based on certain TAB or Betfair or official SP?
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  #4  
Old 16th April 2014, 10:10 AM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Based on NSW TAB favourite, average win dividend $2.60.
I check fixed odds and Betfair to be sure when it's close.
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RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 399,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/03/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
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  #5  
Old 16th April 2014, 10:40 AM
garyf garyf is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mattio
I run a similar system CP that looks at the PP favourite that also ends up the NSWTAB favourite, I only run it on Saturday Metro meetings but since the start of 2012 it has given me just under 300 selections for a 47% S/R and 31% POT.

However, as it is a system based around the favourite it is very hard to automate since sometimes the favourite isn't absolutely known until after the start so there are races where I simply can't bet because the 1st and 2nd favourite are just too close together. Or the other issue is I see a 3rd or 4th favourite being heavily backed late that ends up running favourite, I can't bet in these races either since the favourite will likely have changed from the time I place the bet.

Favourite systems can be tough to operate but they can be very rewarding, CP is your system based on certain TAB or Betfair or official SP?


I had a similar problem but converted to the on course opening fav.

When there were 2 or more equal opening favs I simply didn't bet.

The few % in strike/rate I missed out on as the opening fav drifted & ran 2nd-3rd fav etc was compensated by the better odds.

This gave me a chance to hunt around for the best odds knowing my selection as soon as the prices came up.

Cheers.
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  #6  
Old 19th April 2014, 02:39 AM
dcpg dcpg is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
Based on NSW TAB favourite, average win dividend $2.60.
I check fixed odds and Betfair to be sure when it's close.


I have the same problem at Mattio - but I will have a look at Betfair (I already look at fixed odds). Just a recent race, I bet on the favourite, but when the race was running, he became 3rd favourite! In this case, the horse won anyway which was great - but according to the plan, I shouldn't have bet on him...
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  #7  
Old 19th April 2014, 10:07 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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VALUE FAVOURITES 01/01/2014-19/04/2014
WIN
Races Bet: 97
Races Won: 41
S.R./Race: 42.30%
Outlay($): $97.00
Return : $109.10
$ Profit : $12.10
% P.O.T. : 12.50%

NSW TAB Dividend returns.
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 399,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/03/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
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  #8  
Old 19th April 2014, 10:14 PM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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[QUOTE=mattio]I run a similar system CP that looks at the PP favorite that also ends up the NSWTAB favourite, I only run it on Saturday Metro meetings but since the start of 2012 it has given me just under 300 selections for a 47% S/R and 31% POT.

Excellent stuff, can I ask what do you use as your initial PP fav prices?, eg. Tab Form, SMH, etc etc
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  #9  
Old 20th April 2014, 11:03 AM
mickthemiller mickthemiller is offline
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would it too much to ask for the system rules for the value favourites system.
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  #10  
Old 20th April 2014, 11:52 AM
Dennis G Dennis G is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mickthemiller
would it too much to ask for the system rules for the value favourites system.
I'm thinking that you would need to purchase CP's RaceCensus Database.
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