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  #1  
Old 3rd October 2007, 09:31 PM
lcm123 lcm123 is offline
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Default SYSTEM TEST

I tested this system for about 2 weeks, but due to work commitments I neglected the testing. For the 2 week test it scored a 58% strike rate (I know that the length of testing isn't worth crap, but I think it might have potential...maybe just hopeful. For the two week test it had 12 selections for 7 wins. If someone could test the system on ther "computer system testers" I would appreciate it.

Anyway here it is...I also added tomorrows selections, but not for betting, but only to see how they go.

1. Distance 1000 to 1300mtr's
2. Horse must be in the first (2) two highest AVERAGE prize money
3. System to be used only on Monday to Friday...no Wkd races
4. Tab number 1 to 6 only...no higher unless there are scratchings in the first six runners...eg: Horse 1 and 2 scratched...then horses 7 and 8 are considered.
5. Last start no longer than 14 day's ago
6. Last start finish position no higher than 5th.
7. Last start finish margin no more than 3 lengths
8. Age of horse not older than 5 years of age
9. Barrier 1 to 8

Selections for Thursday 04/10/07
Never heard of Narrogin and Charleville and don't know if it will work there, because only tested Oz tracks in the 2 week trial. I included the selections just to see how it will go, ok. Also for those that might not know how to get the average prize money...you simply divide the total career starts with the total prize money...eg: Total prize money is $100,000 and horse has had 20 total starts $100,000 divide by 20 = $5000 A/p.

Geelong
R7 #6 Notnowcato

Narrogin
R5 #3 Beachy's world

Charleville
R4 #1 Buckbeak
R5 #2 Twinjar
R7 #6 Hayil bee lee
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  #2  
Old 3rd October 2007, 10:15 PM
wesmip1 wesmip1 is offline
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Default

Tested it and it didn't look too promising ...

For starters there are too many rules which means it won't hold up longer term. You need to come up with systems that have a maximum of 5 rules. Less if possible.

Oh it returned a loss of 18%... might be worth laying the selections...

Good luck
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  #3  
Old 3rd October 2007, 10:23 PM
westman westman is offline
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Default Hi wesmip1

Quote:
Originally Posted by wesmip1
....there are too many rules which means it won't hold up longer term.....



Would appreciate some elaboration please??
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  #4  
Old 3rd October 2007, 11:23 PM
lcm123 lcm123 is offline
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Default

Ok...thanks wesmip1.
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  #5  
Old 4th October 2007, 09:25 PM
wesmip1 wesmip1 is offline
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Default

Quote:
Would appreciate some elaboration please??
Westman,

It is my view that systems that contain more than 5-6 rules are specifically backfitted to old data. Backfitted systems will not work longer term in my opinion. I admit sometimes they do hold up but this is the exception rather than the rule.

And also why come up with something so restrictive when it is possible to find consistent profitable systems with only 3-5 rules.

Good Luck.
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  #6  
Old 4th October 2007, 10:35 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by wesmip1
It is my view that systems that contain more than 5-6 rules are specifically backfitted to old data.
And also why come up with something so restrictive when it is possible to find consistent profitable systems with only 3-5 rules.


I couldn't agree more.
The less rules you have, the stronger the system and more likely the viability.
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  #7  
Old 4th October 2007, 11:06 PM
Grand Armee Grand Armee is offline
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
I couldn't agree more.
The less rules you have, the stronger the system and more likely the viability.

On that, here's a system that therefore must win bucketloads, and it's really easy to apply!!!

RULES:

1 - Potential bet must be a horse.


That's it!!!
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  #8  
Old 5th October 2007, 10:51 AM
waggamick waggamick is offline
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Cool

Quote:
Originally Posted by Grand Armee
On that, here's a system that therefore must win bucketloads, and it's really easy to apply!!!

RULES:

1 - Potential bet must be a horse.


That's it!!!
Too narrow GA..rules out geldings, colts, mares and fillies.
Then again?
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  #9  
Old 5th October 2007, 11:16 AM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Grand Armee
On that, here's a system that therefore must win bucketloads, and it's really easy to apply!!!

RULES:

1 - Potential bet must be a horse.


That's it!!!


2 - only include winners
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  #10  
Old 5th October 2007, 05:05 PM
crash crash is offline
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Wink

1 rule or 50, won't hold up for any system.

Prove me wrong :-))
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