Let me give you a parallel vision LG, to get my point across. Pretend the Racing game is akin to the Restaurant game. You've got the chefs preparing and cooking all the dishes and then the waiters present the food to the patrons to consume. I'm the sly one over in the corner watching everyone eat. I don't need to know anything about how the food was prepared or the ingredients, but I reckon I can pick the patrons who'll just peck at their food, and the one's who'll pig out? A kinda' purveyor of humanity and how they behave. Now back to reality, the restaurant patrons are the punters.....hahaa???

Agree with LG, RCP's post is essentially what i'm aiming to do, find a profitable angle that others:

1) do not know about
2) cannot access
3) decide to ignore

In reference to your post LG i think price is initially based on form but the way its manipulated through until close can sometimes move away somewhat from form. Now please note this is just my observed opinion and I don't utilize this myself currently but:

Let's say you have a favourite in a field at $4 in race 6 on the card. It flucs a little throughout the day but not much however now it flashes up as the next race on all TAB's and TV screens around the country. You'll have some people getting on it just because its a 100 rater, some betting anything BUT the favourite. Then comes tha announcement that the favourite is the market mover and you might get a splash of more money driving the price down. Some of these things are form related and some aren't, which I suppose is the nature of the game.

But the way I think and i'd be interested to see if there is any evidence people have to dismiss or back this up, is that if a favourite is at say $4 and then the commentators, tipsters, ratings and whatever else support it and in the leadup to the close it gets 'crunched' into $3, haven't you now missed out on the value that was available on that horse and it therefore becomes a lay? I'm not sure how often this scenario happens or if it does at all but its almost the thinking of a trader where you want to back something at its top fluc and lay it at its lowest available price. So if you've missed the boat on something that gets crunched, sure the public and whoever else has got on board may think it has a great chance of winning, but because you've missed those higher juicy odds doesn't it now constitute either a no bet or lay bet? Interested in peoples thoughts.

Or you put your price out there and when someone accepts it then you back it at SP

Some of the present company excluded, how many will adjust PP for scratched horses. Are they adjusted for the scratched horses shown? Does anyone adjust them for scratched horses on the day? I would say that very few would. Do they even know how to or have the knowhow to?

Hence a $2.50 shot in the PP market at circa 150% may be closer to $3.50. So with the hordes that believe the written word, the PP is a definite underlay. Or food for thought to a layer.

Beton, regards your earlier post regards the Top 5 PP covering 80% winners and No 1 at 25.9%, what is the average field size here?

Cheers LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

I saw in one of the posts a mention about market movers. Are their any studies into the market movers and whether they are a long term winner for backing or laying?

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

The study is with 1025000 runners broken down by PP ranking, Tote ranking and the pricebands

Nothing on field sizes and due to multiple equal rankings it would be impossible to reverse engineer

My fuzzy logic guess would be 10.5 or somewhere between 10-11. Not sure if someone else has seen that number before regards long-term average no. of runners?

Cheers LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

I revisited my post 210 in the DNA thread. While I was evolving my betting educations, I went through the PrePost phase and studied it fairly well:

Attached is a race worksheet from yesterday, Quirindi R8. I wanted to show you how prices change after Adjustments.

Take "Ima Secret", the winner. Original Pre Post price was $21 but that was based on a 170% overround. By the time you increase the % share of the field to make up for the four scratchings (in red) and then reduce the % to a 118% overround the Pre Post is now $12.55. Big jump from the $21 that it started off in the paper.

Rule 1 signals "LAY if OPEN > Adj Pre Post 118%"
Rule 2 signals "LAY if FINAL FLUC > Adj Pre Post 118%"

I filtered those signals with selection criteria and Lay bet Right Vintage & Cadel's Luck.

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You'll have to go to the thread for the attachment

Now I am confused. I agree with your first part. You have 170% field and 4 don't start. So their chances are divided pro rata to the remainder. Their chances increase and their prices reduce.

The next part you reduce their 170% chances down to 118% chances. So for Tab#1, adjusted Prepost % 14.45%. By ( 118/170.65) 0.6914 =9.99% A 9.99% chance is $10. Or am I completely wrong. 170% going to 118% should be increasing in price.