Sorry if this has been discussed in the past, but is there a magic formula that the TAB uses to adjust the odds on each selection.

Let me put it another way, and I am referring to place betting here.

Has anybody put a bet of say $500 for a place on a horse and seen the payout suddenly change from $1-50 to $1-10?

Can it be that sensitive?

I know it is based on the pool, so if the place pool is only $10,000 and you are going to be backing a favourite which is at the moment $1-50, what would be a limit to your bet size to prevent the price dropping dramatically?

$100, $500, $1,000?

In the above example, would a $1,000 bet drop it to $1-10?

Moving up to a pool where you have a $50,000 place pool, would $500 or $1,000 place bets effect it much?

Thanks

Yeah, it all depends on the size of the pool. It takes a much bigger bet to affect the dividends on major Saturday races than it does with the tiny pools on some minor country meetings.

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-02-06 12:36 ]

Robby, there is nothing worse than taking $1.50 or even $1.40 the place only to see it crumble AFTER the jump to $1.00 :evil:

I pray for fixed odds on place betting - then you can make an informed decision.

In fact there is no sane reason why the TABS cannot offer fixed odds on win or place.

They take their cut out of the pools already, so it makes no difference to them what odds are offered to the public providing the percentages add up correctly in their favour.

It's about time they stopped providing the worst value and most company profit...

There, I said it!


[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2004-02-06 12:47 ]

CP

Or perhaps not having a bet because it's showing $1.10 or so, then pays $1.50, $1.60.

Yes, I have been pleasantly suprised a few times when I have put my bets on then see it go to a $2-10 at the finish.

Here's what I've found. TAB place odds at jump time are often totally different to what they are with a few minutes to go.

For instance, a horse might be showing something like $3.00/$2.00 with a couple of minutes to go and you think that's incredible value for the place. Well, I guarantee that thousands of others also think the same thing and that horse will often start at something like $3.50/$1.20.

Then there's the horse which might be showing say $4.00/$1.10. People seeing that obviously aren't going to back it for a place and so you'll often see it start at $3.20/$1.50 or something like that.


[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-02-06 13:27 ]

Sportznut,
Have you taken much notice of the place pool when you have seen such swings?

I know even with the Perth Cup a couple of years back, one of the horses odds dramatically dropped for the win, with about half an hour to go, so there must have been some hefty money going on it.

Funny it didn't even get a place and I was on the winner :smile:

Here is the way to calculate what your bet will do to the place dividend.

1. Get the starting pool value (in this example $10,000)
2. Multiply this value by .8575 to give the amount that will actually be distributed to the punters. So $10000 * .8575 = $8575
3. Divide this by 3 (assuming 3 places paid) to give the amount to be distributed for each placing. So $8575 / 3 = $2858
4. Divide this amount by the current price to see roughly how much is invested on the runner at the moment. So $2858 / 1.50 = $1905

Now we need to work out what it will be after your $500 bet.

1. New pool value will be $10,500
2. Amount to be distributed = $9003 (10500 * .8575)
3. Amount per placing = $3001
4. The amount invested on your runner (so the old value plus your $500) = $1905 + $500 = $2405
5. New dividend is amount available per placing divided by the amount on your runner. So $3001/$2405 = $1.25 (which, of course, would be rounded down to $1.20)

So a $500 place bet on a $1.50 runner in a $10,000 pool will reduce the dividend down to $1.20. Of course this assumes nobody else is placing bets and it also depends on what the actual unrounded dividend was (if the original div should be $1.59 but is being rounded to $1.50 then you will only go down to $1.30).

Working out the win pool is the same except you don't have to do the division by 3 bit.

Hope this is what you are after.

__________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

Thanks for your help becareful that is very interesting and just what I was after.

It also gives you an idea how your play might go if you progress to bigger bets.

Makes you wonder when you see some systems for sale and they show you their profits and bets for the last 12 months and they are putting $10,000+ on every place bet?

Maybe just in their dreams?