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TAB 1

Won LS (in current campaign)


BP 1 -8

1st or 2nd Fav at jump.

Metrop.
W.Farm
R 1 H 1
Pitcrew

Caulf
R 7 H 1
Hai Lil

Doomben
R 8 H 1Discreet

Morphetville
R 6 H 1
Onpicalo

Odds on Rated- Don Scott racing and sports.

Sat only B,M,S,A

No 2,3, year old races

I like it.
I like a thinking punter.
Why the Age restriction.?

Re 2 Y0,s

I knew a very big bettor back in the 80,s who used this .

2YO
Top Wt
Fav
Won LS
Same Distance
Same Track conditions.

I note the same jockey (N Rawiller) is riding Pitcrew.

Wt is up 2 kg from LS.

TC Heavy LS Forecast slow tomorrow.

12 Days break from LS

A moral ???
Odds On horses Win 58 % but lose 42%

Is it worth the risk ? Depends on your pychological make up.

I want $2

It just dosnt seem to work as well on 2,3,old races still through good winners but lots of short losers i didnt back them just dont bet in those races.

When i did it not many bets but very high strike rate and big profits over 6 months.

Why did i stop i dont like to rely on anyone else and if they changed somthing you would never no so properly somthing not to risk big money on but worth a bank and compound.

But if i had pick somthing that would be it.

I also used IAS and only first 4 favs.

The shorter -the more they won - but got a few $6 and $8 winners the pot was massive if you could wait for the bets - i bet on all track cons - but properly better to stay on good / dead ???

In my own betting I do bet the wet tracks - dead - slow - heavy but found on these TC it was a dead loss unless I got a Min $3.

On Good TC will take any price.

I currently stake 1/4 Kelly to 4 % of the bank.

I must say though that betting 1.1 % of the bank shows far higher profits at this stage.

I once remember "Be Careful "doing a comparison on Staking.
I should look it up.

Can you venture your version of this, old boy?

Cheers LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

I still use the standerd $2000 bank bet to take $100 this gives a run of outs at $2.00 40 bets and at $5.00 a run of out of 100, it should be $2500 for a worst case job.

I take it kelly is having more on if bigger than you rated price, i do bet to rated price still but just bet all slections, unders or not if i get $7.00 my $5.00 rate dall the better.

Hi LG,

Based on Danny O.sullivan Staking thread on www.trb.com.au

$16,000 Starting Bank.

4 % = takeout per race $640

Fixed Price $3.20

Divide $640 by 3.2 = Stake $200

Further Examples

Takeout $640 /Price $2.25 Bet $284
etc etc.

LLR 16 as per Pauls prediction (See R2W)

Level Stakes @ 1.1 % of bank = $176.

Frankly I think "Becareful" was spot on.(See old posts.)

I will say this as its been my experience so far over the 577 actual bets if you confine bets to Minimum $3 you increase the profits substantially.

That applies to all track conditions.