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  #11  
Old 15th June 2017, 07:36 PM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by demodocus
Long term WSR =19.7%, mostly favourites. :-)


How's about if we swap the 2 and 3 with a 4 or 5 Demodocus?

LG
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  #12  
Old 16th June 2017, 06:53 AM
demodocus demodocus is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
How's about if we swap the 2 and 3 with a 4 or 5 Demodocus?LG

Wandering into the realms of fantasy.

Here's a quick go using a sample of 288,224 as follows:-

Today's Going = Good
Distance <=1650m.
DSLS <=30
Field 8 - 14
Prev. Races >=4

Taking the SUM of the Last 2 Places to generate a WSR

2 ....... 20.35%
3 ....... 17.40%
4 ....... 16.17
5 ....... 15.28
6 ....... 14.02
7 ....... 13.29
8 ....... 12.40
9 ....... 11.44
10 ..... 10.46

Hence 2PLACE is a fair indicator, but the "flat" spot could be costly.
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  #13  
Old 16th June 2017, 07:21 AM
demodocus demodocus is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by demodocus
Hence 2PLACE is a fair indicator, but the "flat" spot could be costly.

So, using exactly the same data and conditions I had a look at SUM of last 2 starts Beaten Dist rather than Place.

<=1 ..... 18.63%
2 .......... 16.23
3 .......... 15.31
4 .......... 14.04
5 .......... 13.29
6 .......... 12.92
7 .......... 11.76
8 .......... 10.79
9 .......... 10.11

Time to take Mr Jack to the beach. Have a good day.
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  #14  
Old 16th June 2017, 12:40 PM
SpeedyBen SpeedyBen is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by demodocus
Long term WSR =19.7%, mostly favourites. :-)

A good lay system then. I'll get my bot to test it on that basis.
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  #15  
Old 19th June 2017, 07:47 PM
El Gordo El Gordo is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by demodocus
Long term WSR =19.7%, mostly favourites. :-)

Why not make it part of an all up or multi. With a bit luck you'll have more reasons to smile.
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  #16  
Old 26th June 2017, 03:39 PM
SpeedyBen SpeedyBen is offline
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Talking Just the facts, Maam

've been testing this for about a week on all Oz races, including harness, and it has had 13 wins from 56 runners for a LS profit of about 20 units if you stick to those under 12.00.
Above 12.0 there have been 36 straight losses.
All divs are BF, of course.
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  #17  
Old 16th July 2017, 12:18 AM
Sands Sands is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by demodocus
Long term WSR =19.7%, mostly favourites


Quote:
Originally Posted by El Gordo
Why not make it part of an all up or multi. With a bit luck you'll have more reasons to smile.

Good value can be got coupling up horse racing favourites (you may like) into sports events like golf, where those in the market can start at double figures odds.

Last edited by Sands : 16th July 2017 at 12:24 AM.
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  #18  
Old 2nd October 2017, 04:23 AM
kiwiz kiwiz is offline
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Happy Clapper,,winner Randwick,,looks like he qualified
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  #19  
Old 2nd October 2017, 04:53 AM
kiwiz kiwiz is offline
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Booker,,winner Caulfield,,looks like she qualified
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