A bit of late breaking news:

Tatiana Golovin from France, the 5th seed, also moved into the quarter-finals beating the unseeded Rika Fujiwara of Japan 6-4 6-4, after aggravating her injured right ankle in practice yesterday.

“Today was really tough,” said Golovin. “My right ankle is really bad, plus my foot is sore, so I couldn’t even put my shoe on this morning. Today was just a really painful match.”


I had heard Golovin was struggling via some French news links but this confirms her status. Never an idea to expressly bet against injured players but I certainly wouldn't bet on her.

Bets 185; Won 119; Lost 66
Units Staked: 166.5 units; Won 19.27 units; ROI 11.6%

An up-and-down week as Tanasugarn lost last night. Haven't quite figured out her problem as she drifted in the market and traded as high as $2.35 from her starting price of $1.85. Didn't appear to be any injury concerns so perhaps the bookies and I just got it wrong.

Jankovic v Granville
SF

Granville's on the run of her career but I'll yet again predict her demise. She's played well over the past week-and-a-half and has proven she's comfortable on the surface. So too Jankovic who hasn't looked troubled by any of her opponents. She has a lot less experience than Granville but should be fresher given the American has played 9 games in 11 days. Jankovic has a definite edge in the mental 'gnarliness' department and has a better record in finals appearances.

Jankovic $1.61 @ WillHill 1 Unit
(early line, may be better later)



Sharapova v Golovin
SF

A battle of the beauty queens, both of whom have injury niggles. Sharapova took an injury timeout in the second set yesterday for treatment on her thigh before demolishing Daniilidou 6:1 in the third. Golovin is still battling a foot injury and was pushed all the way by Chakvetadze in yesterday's QF. This is a rematch of last year's final which Sharapova won quite comfortably. She has a lot of points at stake in this tournament and is hanging on to the world number two ranking. A loss here will further reduce her chances of catching Davenport. I rate Sharapova a red hot favourite and will take the short-ish odds.


Sharapova $1.25 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit
(early line, may be better later)

Bets 187; Won 121; Lost 66
Units Staked: 168.5 units; Won 20.13 units; ROI 12%


A better night going 2-0


Sharapova v Jankovic
Final

Sharapova's at short-odds but deservedly so. Yesterday's second set demolition of Golovin - whom I rate a better grass player than Jankovic - show's how much Sharapova enjoys the surface. Jankovic has played well this week and she served particulary well against Granville, but none of her opponents this week were anywhere near Sharapova's class. Interestingly, prior to this week Jankovic had a 4/4 career grass record and she mentioned this in her post match interview: “I didn’t expect to be in the final as I didn’t know how to play on grass very well before this week.” In short, Sharapova should have too much experience and has far more riding on the game in terms of points and WTA rankings.

Sharapova $1.22 @ 5Dimes 1 Unit

Preview

I expect quite a few betting opportunities this week with tournaments at Eastbourne and Hertogenbosch.


Eastbourne is the only Tier 2 tournament on grass so a lot of top players are here as a warm-up to Wimbledon.

Svetlana Kuznetsova is back to defend her title, Mauresmo and Myskina are here to polish their skills - Mauresmo says she wants to work on her net game - and Molik who'll be trying to reverse her disappointing result at Birmingham. Clijsters (who's playing on grass for the first time in 2 years), Zvonareva, Likhovtseva (who took Birmingham off due to fatigue) and Dechy make up the remaining seeds.

Plenty of other top players are here including Jankovic, Ivanovic, Asagoe, Hantuchova (2004 finalist), Sprem and Vaidisova so there will be some good betting opportunities.

Note that Henin-Hardenne isn't playing as doctors have advised her she needs rest. The virus that kept her out for so long last year is still in her system.


Hertogenbosch is the second event this week and while a weaker tournament, there's still a few good players here for a Wimbledon warm-up. The top seeds are Top 10 players Dementieva and Petrova while the likes of Schnyder, Pierce (2004 winner), Safina and a host of clay-courters including Medina-Garrigues, Dulko, Groenefeld and Koukalova (2004 finalist), round out the field.

Below this group are the young up-and-comers like Kirilenko, Safarova and Krajicek who'll be playing her home tournament (though she's here as a wildcard). Then there's the veteran brigade led by none other than Martina Navratilova who just refuses to quit. She's joined by the likes of Shaughnessy, Smashnova and Peschke.

The high ranking clay players may provide a few bets as they're always worth opposing on the faster surfaces. Some of the young guns may also be worth backing against a few of the rusty veterans - most notably Smashnova.


Back Monday.

Bets 188; Won 122; Lost 66
Units Staked: 169.5 units; Won 20.35 units; ROI 12%


Good win for Sharapova last night.

Bookies doing there normal slow Monday price-ups. Not much on offer today as ATP dominates Hertogenbosch and qualies/doubles at Eastbourne.

These are early lines that may well be beaten later but the markets have been all over the place during the grass swing.


Zvonereva v Vaidisova
Round 1 - Eastbourne


Zvonereva will be looking forward to grass after a poor clay swing. She has a 9/4 clay record including a SF here last year and solid performances at Wimbledon in 2004 and 2005. Vaidisova has a good junior record on grass but has only played twice at WTA level for two losses.

Zvonereva $1.55 Pinnacle 1 Unit


Domonikovic v RuanoPascual
Round 1 - Hertogenbosch

Dominikovic has played well over the past week-and-a-half. She was unlucky to lose to Stosur last week and had a couple of good hit outs at Surbiton. Her 21/18 grass record compares favourably to Ruano-Pascual's 9/11 record. The Spaniard is also first-up on grass.

Dominikovic $1.66 Pinnacle 1 Unit
(better at smaller bookies)


Shaughnessy v Smashnova
Round 1 - Hertogenbosch

Shaughnessy is the better grass player and has the advantage of playing last week - albeit for a First Round loss. Her 15/18 record includes a few good performances ia typical for a mid ranked grass player. Smashnova's 5/15 record contains a lot of First Round exits to some fairly ordinary players.

Shaughnessy $1.55 Pinnacle 1 Unit
(better at smaller bookies)


Koukalova v Domachowska
Round 1 - Hertogenbosch

Koukalova's was a SF here last year and has a 6/5 record which includes a couple of good wins. Domachowska likes it fast but has only played two WTA games on grass going 1/1.

Koukalova $1.55 Pinnacle 1 Unit

Bets 192; Won 125; Lost 67
Units Staked: 173.5 units; Won 21.00 units; ROI 12.1%

A good night going 3-1.

The losing bet Dominikovic goes into the black book. It's the second week in a row she's blown a good third set lead.


Cervanova v Krajicek
Round 1 - Hertogenbosch

Cervanova has a 6/9 record on grass, Krajicek has a 0/2 record. Both of Krajicek's losses have been during the First Round at Hertogenbosch where she's only qualified as a wildcard. Her 2003 loss was to Cervanova 6:3 6:1. Why then is Krajicek a $1.38-ish favourite? Sure, Cervanova had a miserable clay swing and lost first-up last week at Birmingham. But at least she was warming-up on grass unlike Krajicek who's first up here. Again, this is Krajicek's home tournament and she does have tremendous potential but is she a 72% ($1.38) chance of winning? The value is definitely with Cervanova though a cautious half unit.

Cervanova $3.27 @ Pinnacle Half Unit


Asagoe v Raymond
Round 1 - Eastbourne

Asagoe let us down last week but she does have a solid grass record which includes good wins over quality players. Raymond is also competent on grass though her best performances were a few years back. However the 31-year old American is on a bit of a slippery slope at the moment having suffered a 6:1 6:0 First Round drubbing at Birmingham last week to lowly-ranked Sequerra. She only made this week as a Lucky Loser having been soundly beaten 6:4 6:0 in her Q3 match-up with Srebotnik. Raymond's no easy beat but Asagoe should be too good today.

Asagoe $1.70 @ Centrebet 1 Unit
(better prices at smaller bookies)


Razzano v Farina-Elia
Round 1 - Eastbourne

Farina-Elia is a competent grass player and probably has the edge in class over her opponent. However Razzano has a good grass record herself going 17/9 and she has the advantage of playing a couple of matches last week at Birmingham while Farina-Elia is first-up on grass. This match will be closer than the odds suggest so there's value with Razzano.

Razzano $2.60 @ Pinnacle Half Unit


Medina-Garrigues v Benesova
Round 1 - Hertogenbosch

Median-Garrigues had a very good clay swing so should be in a positive frame of mind. She hasn't had much experience on grass (3/3 record) but she made the SF's here last year and so must have some ability. Benesova had a poor clay season and has a similar grass record to Garrigues but her last win was in 2002. Garrigues usually puts up a good fight and she has plenty of ranking points to defend here so I expect she'll be rather focused.

Medina-Garrigues $1.50 @ Pinnacle 1 unit
(better prices at smaller bookies)


Notes: Likhovtseva plays today after withdrawing from Birmingham last week with a thigh strain/fatigue. Maleeva plays todays after withdrawing from Birmingham with a shoulder strain.

Bets 196; Won 127; Lost 69
Units Staked: 176.5 units; Won 20.80 units; ROI 11.8%

A rather average evening going 2-2 for a very small loss. I was certainly wrong about Krajicek who flogged Cervanova and about Raymond who flogged Asagoe.

Short of time today.

Ruano-Pascual v Safarova
Round 2 - Hertogenbosch

My computer program rates Ruano-Pascual a 56.1% chance of winning so I'm taking the perceived value.

Ruano-Pascual $2.30 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit
(better prices at smaller bookies)


Razzano v Molik
Round 2 - Eastbourne


My computer program rates Razzano a 43.4% chance of winning so I'm taking the perceived value. Molik's also still recovering from an ear infection which affects her balance and vision.

Razzano $2.80 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit
(better prices at smaller bookies)


Kirilenko v Safina
Round 2 - Hertogenbosch

My computer program rates Kirilenko a 49.3% chance of winning so I'm taking the perceived value. There's very little between these two on grass.


Kirilenko $2.60 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit


Koukalova v Schaul
Round 2 - Hertogenbosch


My computer program rates Koukalova a 72.9% chance of winning so I'm taking the perceived value. Koukalova SF here last year - Schaul in woeful form

Koukalova $1.42 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit

Bets 199; Won 128; Lost 71
Units Staked: 179.5 units; Won 19.3 units; ROI 10.8%


A very poor night going 1-2 with no excuses. Not such a good week.
Molik withdrew prior to play to void her match with Razzano.

I'm short on time again.


Koukalova v Chladkova
QF - Hertogenbosch

I rate Koukalova a 63.7% chance of winning - Chladkova got through
second round with a walkover and wasn't particularly impressive in
Round 1

Koukalova $1.63 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit
(better prices at smaller bookies)

Pretty skinny overs there Marko.
Suggest you watch and enjoy the game.

Nice overs here!
Did it get up?
Excellent effort if so!

Just realized the even better overs the Krilenko bet.
Did that one get up?