A reasonable point Racingnovice but of course there are many more factors at work which will decide who finishes in front. I guarantee you I, at 70kg, can easily account for some 100kg blokes around no matter what weight is being hauled.

Of course I would reach my optimum weight carrying level and then I would tire considerably. I think that is the point. Some horses can carry weight, some can't. It is no secret that better class horses can and still beat lower class animals. I think this is why horses going up in weight win more races, they are better horses.

A small horse or human can be a ball of muscle and beat their larger (fatter) protagonist, winning depends on fitness, ticker, bottle and ability.

It seems to me that a lot of people are getting sidetracked by "Big Horse/Little Horse" and missing the main point that tiny weight discrepancies are OF NO IMPORTANCE in horse racing due to numerous other factors (of which size MAY be one) acting as counter-influences. That Kiwi jumps to the conclusion (see below) that Bigger means Fatter, and therefore unfitter, shows the enormity of the problem. We can't know the effects of most variables and shouldn't be breaking our heads over every miniscule difference between the horses. Let the trainer decide if his/ her horse is "right" and look for clues that the Trainer is CONFIDENT. They know their horses better than anyone else and THEY have weighed ir all up for us. When Cinque Cento appeared at Doomben in The Roses (Group 3 2020m) last Saturday it was senseless to analyse at all. Up 420m and 8 grades after a moderate class 1 win at Gosford, it was "obviously" in too hard a race. So; were the punters right or was Tony Wildman???
The punting public got it horribly wrong because that didn't listen to Tony. The bookies GOT IT RIGHT (for them) because the punters were scared off by the 20s on offer which left them (the bookies) cheering!! They were cheering because the punters were hooked on ratings and thinking of what SHOULD be instead of what COULD be. Keep it simple and keep on winning. Bye for now

What of the other trainers in the race.Why weren't you listening to them?
They all had opinions on their horse's ability and were probably trying to win, given it was a Group 3

Hi Kiwi! I looked at all the visiting trainers only, since, as I've said before, if it's less than a few hours by float(or within minutes as is the case Doomben/Eagle Farm) to the races, it really is tempting to "give it a go" even if it's just wishful thinking:costs nothing and you might get a few grand for 5th or 4th even. Better in fact than winning at the Gold Coast where they probably should've been.
There were 6 of these, and three were short-priced Waterhouse animals. Overbet due to the Golden Gai tag, I ignored them. Remember, Kiwi, that we dont want to know why the favoured horses are in the race (ie that is clear), but why the OTHERS have been sent a thousand Kilometres. Not wanting to tempt fate (or treat the horses like a predictable Physics experiment) by trying to whittle it down further I let the old risk/reward equation guide me and took the 2 over $20. That's it!!

Thanks punter57 travelling trainers have always aroused my interest too. I will pay this aspect more attention in future.

Hi punter57

I've tried some trainer ideas with mixed results.Any more ideas?

My thoughts include preparation patterns, using winning jockeys and first up specialists.

Morning Kiwi!! Yesterday was one of the days when, in a moment of weakness, I might have considered putting a place bet on. Just for a second when River To The Sea looked like winning the BTC sprint I was counting the $1100 (ie $20 at $55 the win) then wondering if $12.40 the place would've made up for some of the disappointment. Likewise in the very next race with Natural Blitz looming in the Doomben Cup at $22 and paying $4.90 for 3rd. Or earlier with Igotthelaststone at Rosehill (not really looking the winner but still $6.50 the place).
These things happen but I've never been able to make Place Punting as profitable as Win Betting IN THE LONG RUN.,though a smaller return makes you "feel better" at the time!!!
By the way Kiwi, there were many possibilities in the main races at Doomben.Take the five from Interstate at LONGER THAN 20s in Race 6 (The Sprint),which I got down to 3 contenders. I eliminated Amtrak because he was down in class for his second run in Brisbane (from Melbourne) This is the trainer telling you he "got it wrong" the first time (too tough) and has therefore decided on an easier race; a sign of "loss of confidence"....BAD. Tsuimai (from Sydney), maybe for real, (probably I should've left him in but as he hadn't won for 18 months and then it'd been 1600, I'd say Denham had something longer in mind,next time). Youthful: from Melbourne after a reasonable effort at Warnambool the previous (now coming 2000 kilometres for this) and with 2 earlier wins 1350,5 at 1400; definitely FOR REAL. River To The Sea (from Sydney,running recently over longer) his trainer has sprung many a surprise before so I gave it "a chance", especially as it had been rested almost 2 months (several wins and places fresh at 1200/1400) for THIS.
For Face Value I thought that Laming was more "hopeful" than CONFIDENT (he's a Queenslander and often takes his horses to Brisbane from the Victorian stable "on holidays" in the winter) though, since he was putting the horse UP in class, Laming must've had some 'expectations". That's it Kiwi: 3 longshots in the same race and a near miss at $55: could've been different as it WILL be, next Saturday. Hope this gives you more feel for trainer "motivations" and why they spend time and money on travelling around. Cheers

Hi Punter57
I noticed Spuruson was along way from home.Didn't back that one but on checking it's form saw Mi Casa ran second to it as a maiden.Thought if Spuruson was good enough for a Group race then Mi Casa is a good horse too and backed that.Sad part was i couldn't believe Spuruson could beat Willy Leica or Svenska otherwise i would have really have been celebrating.
Did you see anything of note?

You are certainly living up to your name RACINGNOVICE, your thinking there is simply illogical. If both horses were allocated the same weight then they must had the same class and ability dispite the weights they have been carrying. E.G both may have won a bush maiden by a length with 57.5, in the same time, both horses start in a C1 next start and are allocated 58, your ratio is only valid if at all on the .5kg difference as at 57.5 they are at the same level.