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  #101  
Old 10th November 2012, 05:22 PM
SpeedyBen SpeedyBen is offline
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Smart Twister helped to rescue a dirty day, Eva.
Out of curiousity, how would you have got on if you only backed the double figure selections?
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  #102  
Old 10th November 2012, 08:41 PM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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Overall a pretty luck finish to the day thanks to Ascot to help me break even. It was looking pretty hairy early on in the day but came home strong. I'm only hitting about a 20% strike rate at the moment so my testing shows it should be up around 35-40% so there is definitely improvement there. My max bankroll is $223.80 and i finished today at $223.53 so no increase to unit size again, still at $2.23

Ill try get tomorrows plays up but will be busy with a work show for clients and wont have signal on my phone.

happy punting.
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  #103  
Old 11th November 2012, 01:57 AM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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Putting my bets on for tomorrow now guys, still $2.23 unit size:

Sunshine Coast - Race 3

No.
7 Wind Wand

Sunshine Coast - Race 7

No.
3 Visona Rose

Armidale - Race 6

No.
6 I'm In The Money

Armidale - Race 7

No.
1 Devilgate Road

Ararat - Race 5

No.
2 King Buddy

Ararat - Race 6

No.
1 Texan Warney

Pinjarra - Race 9

No.
7 Not So Sweet
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  #104  
Old 13th November 2012, 08:29 AM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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Hi Evaj.
Here is a staking approach you may like to to test.

1/200th UP & DOWN Staking Plan
Make ones base bet unit 1/200th of bank.
Adjusted DAILY, up & down. (Important)
e.g. If bank is reduced from 230.00 to 220.00
Then bet 1/200th of remaining bank of 220.00 for the whole of the next day.

Betting 1/200th, smooths out the ups & downs more, rather than say 1/60th

This approach is considered to be one of the safer approaches to use.

One may feel more comfortable using this approach , especially if ones bank starts to build to sizable proportions and if one feels that a bad run is just around the corner.

It may also help you sleep better at night knowing that the strategy of the staking plan can withstand huge runs of outs & still be standing to keep on going.
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  #105  
Old 13th November 2012, 09:35 AM
bernie bernie is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bhagwan
Hi Evaj.
Here is a staking approach you may like to to test.
Here are a few more of Bhagwan's staking plans you may like to test. I think there are a few I have missed but Bhagwan can fill in the gaps.

10 Point Staking Plan
Bhagwan Staking Plan
Bhagwan Place Staking & Selection
Place Staking & Selection plan
Bhagwan Staking Plan (2)
5% Staking Plan
8 Bet Place Staking Plan (No2)
Money Management Staking Plan
Place Staking Plan
Bhagwan Staking Plan (B)
Staking Plan Challenge
Each Way Staking Plan
Staking Plan using variable percentage
Dynamite Place Staking Plan
Simple Staking Plan
1/20th Staking Plan
Roulette-Red & Black Staking Plan
Duel Progression Staking Plan
Roulette 6 Step Staking Plan
Ladder Staking Plan
Roulette Staking Plan
Ladder Staking Plan (B)
TAB Favourites Plan
Square Root Staking Plan
4 Horse Value Staking Plan
Previous Winner Staking Plan
1-4 Lay Staking Plan
Six Block Lay Staking Plan
10 Block Staking Plan
Black Box Lay Staking Plan
New Staking Plan
Escalator Staking Plan
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  #106  
Old 13th November 2012, 12:03 PM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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Today's plays, still a $2.23 unit size. There were no plays yesterday and all losses sunday:

Townsville - Race 6

No.
6 Panecillo

Kilmore - Race 5

No.
7 Jarrah Twist
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  #107  
Old 13th November 2012, 12:07 PM
garyf garyf is offline
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And another way to the 100,s already mentioned.


What is a better money management solution than level or progressive staking?

Well the best approach is one that balances two competing beasts - risk and reward. Professional punting is about maximising your returns, but it is just as important to protect your bankroll.

Following literally years of analysis and number-crunching have found the best risk/reward balance is to bet to collect 5% of your bank.

So if a horse is at odds of $2.00, you outlay 2.5% of your bank which will return 5% (2 x 2.5) if the horse wins.

If a horse is at odds of $5.00, you outlay 1% of your bank to return 5%.

If the horse is at $10 you only outlay .5% of your bank to return 5%.

The simple calculation to determine your stake is 5 divided by the odds.

This method works because you're outlaying more on horses likely to win and less on those with a lower chance of winning. You're taking advantage of the fact that on a long-term basis the betting market is a very good guide - there is a perfect correlation between market rank and winning percentage. Favourites win more races than 2nd favourites, who win more than 3rd favourites and so on. And horses starting at $2.50 win more races than those at $3.00 and on it goes. The greater the price, the lower the winning strike-rate.

we maximise our returns by betting to collect 5% of our bank, but instead of using the market odds we use our own rated prices. This means the greater the overlay the greater our collect and it has some strong similarities to a well known method called the Kelly Criterion.

Horses that rate at $2.00 will win very close to 50% of races.

Horses that rate at $5.00 will win very close to 20% of races.

But the profitable edge is in backing these horses at a price equal to or better than their true chance of winning. For example getting $2.50 about a horse you have rated at $2.00 has a positive expectation.

The staking plan involves outlaying no more than 2.5% of our bank on any one race and typically we're in the 1.5% to 2% range. A punter's bank might be $1,000 or it might be $100,000 but the percentage of their bank outlayed on any one race is the same and this maintains a good balance between achieving profits and protecting your capital.

Now if you wanted to get aggressive and bet to return say 10% of your bank per winner, in the short-term you may do well. But in the long-term you'll almost certainly blow up your bank due to one of the most dangerous yet under-estimated enemies of a punter and that is variance.

Proportionate betting with the aim of collecting 5% can reduce the drawdown on your bankroll and is a great way of maximising returns.


You can agree or disagree to each there own.

Cheers
Garyf.
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  #108  
Old 13th November 2012, 04:41 PM
The Ocho The Ocho is offline
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I just read that on an email garyf. Not bad for a staking plan.
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  #109  
Old 13th November 2012, 05:05 PM
garyf garyf is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Ocho
I just read that on an email garyf. Not bad for a staking plan.
That's why i posted it, had to delete the companys,
Name for legal reasons.

I admit i would never have thought of it,
If you have a good set of prices like Eva's it should help.

Posted it here rather than my thread Interesting Read,
As staking plans were being mentioned on this thread.

Cheers
Gary.
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  #110  
Old 14th November 2012, 01:35 PM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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Today gents:

Doomben - Race 6

No.
3 By Choice

Hawkesbury - Race 7

No.
3 Atsuta

Bendigo - Race 6

No.
2 Kimurasun

Ascot - Race 3

No.
9 Terkel

Ascot - Race 4

No.
7 Business Secret

Ascot - Race 7

No.
3 Tiffany Yellow
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