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  #1  
Old 12th June 2013, 01:27 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Posts: 2,790
Wink Lay "Short-Priced" Horses

I have been testing a new Lay system that targets only single prices shown in the Daily Telegraph. I've red-carded my usual Lay system, not because it's losing but because the smiles only generate a small profit. However, I might resurrect it one day

Today's selections for this new system are:

Warwick Farm
3/5
4/7
5/12
7/9

Sandown
3/1
6/10
7/1
8/4

Eagle Farm
6/3
8/3

Belmont
1/10
2/7
3/7
4/9
5/8
6/3
7/3
8/4

Strathalbyn
6/7
7/7
8/3
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  #2  
Old 12th June 2013, 05:49 PM
Rinconpaul Rinconpaul is offline
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Posts: 755
Cool

Great to see you back MG.
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  #3  
Old 12th June 2013, 06:54 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Wink

Thanks, RP. I've been doing well and the smiles were many but too small, and to win real money my liability was consequently high which at times could be scary. Hopefully this new system is also profitable but without the anxiety.

Today wasn't a bad day - 17 smiles from 18 selections for an acceptable profit of $37.14.

Last edited by michaelg : 12th June 2013 at 06:59 PM.
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  #4  
Old 12th June 2013, 07:23 PM
Rinconpaul Rinconpaul is offline
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I assume your starting with a $33 liability? If so I'd be happy with that after one accident.
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  #5  
Old 12th June 2013, 09:22 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Wink

Yes, the liability is my standard/minimum $33. I will increase it if it doesn't crash and is still in profit after the first week - I expect to get a lot of action in any one week.
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  #6  
Old 13th June 2013, 06:37 AM
Mark Mark is offline
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Location: Qld
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Laying shorties?, what a novel idea. Wish I'd thought of that.
It will still be tough laying one out.
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  #7  
Old 13th June 2013, 07:33 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Wink

Mark, laying shorties is not a novel idea for me. It's just that I've never been keen on it especially as I have had success with laying outsiders. The turn-off with my outsider methods has been the high liability and the relatively small profit, and even more unpalatable is the lack of action.

I'm hoping, but not too confident with this current method because it's based on the neurals.
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  #8  
Old 13th June 2013, 11:55 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Wink

Today's selections:

Wyong
1/3
4/3
5/8
6/8
7/5
8/11

Seymour
4/3
7/3
8/5
9/4

Toowoomba
5/3

Northam
1/2
2/6
4/5
6/11
7/11
8/3

The Daily Telegraph does not show the Northam prices so I've used the market in ************** website which often is similar to the D.T.
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  #9  
Old 13th June 2013, 07:43 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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There were two accidents today - they were both Maiden races. I'm undecided at this time whether to continue the method or not because if I omit Maidens then it dramatically reduces the amount of selections.
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  #10  
Old 13th June 2013, 08:10 PM
Rinconpaul Rinconpaul is offline
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Don't give up Michael. You should consider a couple more filters. With Maidens min 10 starts. Because your system is Ratings based you maybe should consider a price based filter to salute the knowledge behind weight of money!
You've been down this track before with your D'S outsider system.

I just don't think Layers can ignore the use of many filters as our returns are always a fraction of liability, unless Laying Odds/On which was quite successful for me today.

I'm about to embark on a detailed survey of just Maiden races to try and find those profitable niches.

Cheers RP
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