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#141
4th November 2019, 07:12 PM
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Quote:
I played with the ratings a bit and an alternate set of selections have come out (same selections different order): 0.0 PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) 0.5 MER DE GLACE (JPN) 0.5 DOWNDRAFT (IRE) 0.5 CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE) 1.0 MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) 1.0 SURPRISE BABY (NZ) 1.0 FINCHE (GB) 1.0 MUSTAJEER (GB) 1.5 VOW AND DECLARE 2.0 RAYMOND TUSK (IRE) Lets see which performs better  
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#142
4th November 2019, 08:12 PM
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Looking at TRB's ratings on betfair Hub they said that 84% of all winners in the Melbourne cup have a rating of 106+ in their ratings. That seems like a good yard stick to use as a filter:
There were only 8 which made the rating: #2 Mer De Glace #4 Mirage Dancer #11 Finche #12 Prince Of Arran #14 Downdraft #18 Surprise Baby #19 Constantinople #23 Vow And Declare Lets compare that to the list: 0.0 MER DE GLACE (JPN) 0.5 PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) 1.0 DOWNDRAFT (IRE) 1.5 MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) ****** NOT IN THE LIST 2.0 CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE) 2.5 RAYMOND TUSK (IRE) ******** NOT IN THE LIST 2.5 SURPRISE BABY (NZ) 2.5 FINCHE (GB) 2.5 MUSTAJEER (GB) *********** NOT IN THE LIST 3.0 VOW AND DECLARE 9.9 CROSS COUNTER ******** NOT IN THE LIST That leaves us with only 7 horses: 0.0 MER DE GLACE (JPN) 0.5 PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) 1.0 DOWNDRAFT (IRE) 2.0 CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE) 2.5 SURPRISE BABY (NZ) 2.5 FINCHE (GB) 3.0 VOW AND DECLARE I am reading a lot about MER DE GLACE not being able to make the distance. I am worried about VOW AND DECLARE, SURPRISE BABY and DOWNDRAFT drawing too wide. That leaves us with these three as the top selections: 0.5 PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) 2.0 CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE) 2.5 FINCHE (GB) These are the ones I might have a small bet on.
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#143
5th November 2019, 12:11 AM
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 Rostropovich
4yo B Gelding
Frankel (GB) - Tyranny (GB) [By Machiavellian (USA)]
18s: 4-2-2
He hasn't met with a whole lot of success since arriving in Australia. His first run he got smacked by Winx in last year's Cox Plate. Following that was the Melbourne Cup where he performed quite admirably, finishing in 5th position, 4.5L from the leader. In his 2018 profile I wrote that he was likely handicapped 2-3kg lighter than he should be and thought he might struggle to make the distance; if he drew well and had an easy race it was possible he could be nursed to the line and might nab get a placing. Things didn't quite go to plan when he drew barrier 21 and was stuck 3-wide the trip, but he did reasonably well regardless.
Following The Cup they tried their luck in the Hong Kong Vase, with the field including Cox Plate winner Lys Gracieux, as well as Prince Of Arran, Latrobe and Miracle Dancer. Once again Rostropovich was forced to race wide and weakened in the straight, but he still finished ahead of the others who had come via Melbourne. He was just ahead of Prince Of Arran with a 2kg advantage (he now carries 1kg more in The Cup), Latrobe was 2 lengths back at level weights (as is the case tomorrow) and Miracle Dancer didn't run on.
He headed back to Australia where his training was taken over by Hayes, Hayes, Dabernig. He resumed in the Makybe Diva, finishing the 1600m in 7th place 3.2L behind.
He was gelded before his next run in the Turnbull Stakes, though it didn't turn around his fortune. He was the 9th place finisher over the more favourable 2000m trip, once again pulling a bad barrier. Rostropovich had every chance to do something in the straight but made no impact on any of the other runners: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe-vi1yMHcA
His final lead-up was the Caulfield Cup where he tried something different: it wasn't not drawing a bad barrier; he did that again. Caught wide once more, he rode up to be off the leader. The end result was still the same though: showing very little in the straight and finishing towards the tail of the field.
Somewhat amazingly, his rating is still 109 - the same rating as he held going in to last year's race. Even if that rating were accurate, he's carrying 2kg more than he should when compared to Cross Counter. Rostropovich could carry a feather and it probably wouldn't matter, the way he's going.
I think he did well last year on account of a very favourable weight, made even more favourable by the conditions. He appears to be far better suited to 2000m-2500m and will again be tested by the Cup distance. His terrible form of late means he's likely to finish among the last couple.
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#144
5th November 2019, 01:33 AM
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 Southern France
4yo B Horse
Galileo (IRE) - Alta Anna (FR) [By Anabaa (USA)]
14s: 3-3-3
The final horse to profile (yay) is Southern France. To recommend him: a narrow 2nd to Stradivarius (is there any other kind?) and a clear victory over Downdraft. These races were part of a Cup campaign that has extended back to April.
The first of these was the 2800m Vintage Crop Stakes, where he mixed it with some familiar candidates: Master Of Reality won, just edging out Mustajeer who beat Southern France by a length and Twilight Payment by another: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qGy9lOOH3r8
The impressive run against Stradivarius was next, again over 2800m, in the Yorkshire Cup Stakes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9WTEeJ2OB7U. We only see the last couple of furlongs, but the pair put a margin on the rest of the field. The British Horseracing Authority gave Southern France a 115 performance rating for this run.
He was back down to Earth with his next performance in the Hardwicke Stakes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZ4ZQzDeuhg. He was 8 lengths adrift of Defoe, with Mirage Dancer coming in 3rd, just 1.5 lengths from the winner. This was at even weights between Southern France and Mirage Dancer, as it will be in the Melbourne Cup. There is little different between the two races, save this one being 400m shorter, but he only earned himself a 104 performance rating this time out. Perhaps Stradivarius coaxed him along to greater heights in the previous race by giving him something just ahead to chase. The next time he met Stradivarius - over 2 miles this time - it didn't work out that way. There were other challengers for him to taunt and Southern France was left in their collective dust, finishing 9 lengths back this time (and 7 behind Cross Counter; though he'll have 2kg back in his favour come 3pm).
Between those two races was the 2800m Curragh Cup and it was Southern France's turn to just beat Mustajeer, but they were both 3 lengths behind Twilight Payment and Latrobe.
Next: let's shuffle them up and give Southern France a win. His first Group victory..... This time make him beat Master Of Reality. What fun! It almost seems like they're taking turns. There's very little in the way of consistency to draw from. Downdraft is new on the scene though, with Southern France beating him by 2 lengths, and Downdraft beating Master Of Reality by the same. That was the St Leger Trial Stakes, for all that's worth, but Downdraft will get a positive 2kg swing in the Cup.
Finally it was the Irish St Leger which I've written umpteen times about, given all the candidates it featured. They all finished in a clump with Southern France at the leading edge.
So how to sum that all up? How about: ¯\_
 _/¯Southern France seemed to be on an upward trajectory with his latter performances there, so you could put him slightly ahead on that count. Unfortunately we don't know how he travelled nor how he's handled the switch to Ciaron Maher's yard. Apparently Aiden O'Brien has been quite forthcoming with advice on his old charge so there shouldn't have been too much disruption.
He's run 3 races at greater than 2900m for one placing. Looking at the pedigree figures, his Dosage Profile is (9-2-23-12-0) with DI 0.96 and CD 0.17. This indicates that around 3000m would be good. His Conduit Mare Profile is (4-6-5-10-8) with Speed 10, Stamina 18, Index 0.61 and Triads (15-21-23) implies that even longer would be fine. Altogether he may be slightly too dour to suit The Cup.
Something to be careful of: he's never won first up. Each of his wins were from backing up within 3 weeks of the previous. Basically he could finish just about anywhere in the field without it being terribly surprising. I see other candidates far more likelier to finish higher though and would think it likely he'll be somewhere between 5th and 15th.
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#145
5th November 2019, 03:13 AM
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Done!
Here's a link to each profile, if it's of interest: I suppose all that's left is my tips. Here's my Top 10 and my stab at the order in which they'll finish: 1st - CROSS COUNTER (GB) 2nd - IL PARADISO (USA) 3rd - DOWNDRAFT (IRE) 4th - MIRAGE DANCER (GB) 5th - PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) 6th - FINCHE (GB) 7th - MAGIC WAND (IRE) 8th - RAYMOND TUSK (IRE) 9th - CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE) 10th - MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) One of the first 3 to win; some combination of the first 5 to be the trifecta; some combination of the first 6 to be the First Four. I felt really bad about leaving out Surprise Baby and Vow And Declare.... I've ignored 'the system'. Hopefully I'm not punished for my treachery. I may post it one last time if there are any notable odds changes, or post-race to review. My tips might turn out to be rubbish but hopefully folk have enjoyed seeing my workings. Fingers crossed for a fair race and all horses and jockeys coming home safely. Good luck with your investments
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#146
5th November 2019, 06:40 AM
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walkermac,
You got it done nice work. I sat here reading through them all again this morning. I can't believe you ignored the system. Its to your own peril Thanks for the hard work again this year.
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#147
5th November 2019, 10:10 AM
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Thanks for the most informative site ever on this forum. Take a bow, mate.
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#148
5th November 2019, 10:38 AM
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My first 4 had Master of Reality, Southern France, Constantinople and Il Paradiso to win.
Sprinkled for the placings were Cross Counter, Prince of Arran, Finche, Raymond Tusk, Downdraft and Mirage Dancer. I just couldn't bring myself to include the aussie hopefules like surprise baby and vow and declare, they just seem over-supported by locals and overbet. Plus I think in their leadup runs they were either relatively soft fields or they had the most luck in those runs compared to others. Anyhow best of luck to everyone and seriously another magnificent thread again this year wmac, everyone certainly appreciates the lengths you go to and the information you've put together. Super effort.
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#150
5th November 2019, 02:35 PM
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Last one ahead of the race. Here are the official VOP prices half an hour out.
  Here are the top two rungs of 'the system' (those with a Stamina 17 figure in bold): CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE) FINCHE (GB) MUSTAJEER (GB) VOW AND DECLARE SURPRISE BABY (NZ) MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) RAYMOND TUSK (IRE) LATROBE (IRE) DOWNDRAFT (IRE) PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) Hardest race to pick for a while!
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