As per the title, how do you know if/when a system has had its day? The answer, I suppose, is pretty obvious - when you run out of money! But really, is there a certain point when you no longer have confidence in a system?

I have been betting a system since 1 October, 2013. I won't go into details suffice to say it is a laying system, one horse per qualifying race. There have been 2616 bets up to 4th Jan (I haven't updated my overall records since then but I'd imagine it would be over 3000 bets now).

I started off laying at $30 liability using a ratchet staking system and have had it up to $60 liability. Due to recent losses I have re calibrated the bet amount at the start of January at $40 liability and am currently at $48 liability. It should really be at $38 liability if I wasn't using ratchet stakes.

The bank has gone from $0 to it's highest point of $1390 on 21 Dec. Since then the bank has dropped down to $800 with a $95 loss today. Another $100 loss will see the bank down 50% from it's high.

Should I call it quits there (at 50% down from the high)? Should I do it now?

I remember someone saying on here (I'm sorry I can't remember who) that he never bets over the Christmas/New Year period. I wonder whether that has got anything to do with it and also when that person starts to get back into it?

I have attached a graph.

Well, what would you do if you were in my shoes? (This is the only system I have got so I can't even keep it up and offset the losses against any other system).

Attached Thumbnails

 

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

I would :

1. go to when the system started losing and do a chi test from that point
2. compare the result to the overall chi test results (all selections)
3. Find your median odds in each range
4. Find your average odds in each range
5. Find your strike rate in each period
6. What's your amounts of bets per week in each period

Compare the results. What has happened ? Do you still have an edge and its just been an unlucky run ? Do the tests show you that you no longer have an edge.

What was your median and average dividend range before when it was winning compared to when it was losing ?

Has the amount of bets changed per week?

Has the strike rate changed ?

I just looked and saw it was only 113 selections. There could be your problem. Its not enough data to any analysis on really to decide if you have an edge and whether it has gone. you really need 300+ for testing, 300+ for paper testing and then evaluate a system after 300+ of real life testing. 113 means you should still be in the testing phase or paper testing.


If you can do the above tests and post your results and I might be able to help you.

I have no idea how to do those things however 113 is the days (112 actually) and not the selections. There are over 3000 selections.

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

Racing happens 7 days a week 363 days a year. It however is a very seasonal sport. The beauty of time is that you can test and adjust. Back some time ago I subscribed to a tipping service. He never charged for part of September and all of November. He gave the tips on the proviso that they were at one's own risk.

The reason being that in 25 yrs of tipping these weeks never produced a profit. and a lot of the time pulled the annual result down.

Ask yourself what has changed.

Hi Echo,

What sort of testing did you do prior to the start of betting?

Michal

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Michal - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database;
with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate horse performance ratings for TAB meetings.
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A ratchet system will magnify profits, but also losses.
I would run a test using flat liability and compare the profit/loss over sections of time. It's most likely that the peak in the graph was simply a better than average time and just after was a correction of sorts.
However, the Betfair markets are fluid and edges are constantly eroding, so that the market is becoming almost 100% accurate pre commission. We've lost the big traders which used to push prices, and so all that's left (by volume) are opinions.
It depends how much previous data you had, and how much current data you have as to if or when you bail out. If you're worried, sit it out recording results still if you can (as you are still in profit) and if it returns to the previous high, you'll lose that profit and possibly make a bigger loss getting back on, but your confidence will be restored.
Perhaps wait for the next downturn, but if you plan staying with it long term, it will all even out anyway.

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