"When betting a system, I expect the longest run of outs and maximum drawdowns to double at some stage during my betting ..."
You are meaning double compared with back test period? What raw pot on back test do you cosider minimum to warrant further investigation of a potential system?

Hi Tony,

sorry, but I'm not sure what you mean by an "equity curve", so can't help you there. And I'm an excel novice myself... I write all my own software, so have a very simple program which reads the PPP CSV file and calculates a lot of what I want.

As for what POT I'm looking for, that depends upon the sample size... If there's only 100 bets, then I'm looking for at least 80% POT. If there's 1000 bets, then I'd look closely at something with 30% POT, although I prefer something around the 40% to 50%.

It seems that at the moment, my "successfully" backtested systems are running at about 5% less S/R and about 20% less POT.

Cheers,
Chris.

Someone else might be able to oblige?
It was an excel formula used in the ppp generated spread sheet to keep a running tab of the bottom line. Need excelspeak for the following plain speak: If Win Div = 0, then the new total = the old total minus the stake or alternatively, if the win div = something (ie the last bet won), then the new total = the old total minus the stake plus the win div.
Using excel graph facility, you would then plot this newly formed column against time, giving a nice view of the ebbs and flow of the progress of the system over time.

Good on you, Darky. I use the el-cheapo paper version and wouldn't be without it.

Tony,

this may be what you are after ... substitute the cells accordingly ...

=if(winDiv=0,oldtotal - stake,oldtotal -stake + winDiv)
then drag the formula down.

or.. even simpler...

=oldstake - stake + winDiv
then drag the formula down...

as the winDiv could have any value from 0 upwards it makes no difference to the way the formula / equation is set out. This will easily give you a running balance.

Hope this is what you were after.

Regards,

OM

Too true Tony .Too true.
Cheers.
darky.

Thanks OM. I think you have to put an "if" qualificatin to cover the fact that a loser is an empty cell, not a zero.
Need a new column with the initial bank eg 2000 in the first cell of a newly inserted row then set stake as eg 20 and then need something along your lines which also says that if the win div cell is empty then treat it as zero??

Tony,

normally Excel treats a blank cell as zero .. eg

if A1 has $100 and A2 is blank, then in A3

=A1 + A2 = $100

Do I presume that you want to calculate:
=Opening Balance - Bet + WinDiv = New Balance?

If so then it is ok for the WinDiv cell to be blank. You should still get the answer you require ...

eg...
=$2000 - $20 + Blank winDiv = $1980

Hope i've understood you correctly...

Regards,

OM

Beats me,OM. I set up the thing with the initial nominal bank of 2000 in newly inserted column's cell AW2 and make the formula for the new bank, when AW3 is the first cell in the Win Div column
=SUM(AW2-20+20*AY3)
Then drag down the AW column.

Works fine when the first couple of selections are winners. But as soon as it srikes a loser, ie an empty AW cell, it spits it with a #VALUE! reult.

I'm sure from memory that the formula I used included "if" something or other.

Yell out if you have any clues.


Tony

Hi Tony,

=SUM(AW2-20+20*AY3)

Just try
=AW2-20+20*AY3

in the cell AW3, then drag that down the AW column.

Cheers,
Chris.

Sorry to be a drag but the same result, Chris.
If it works in yours, maybe it is an my options settings??

[ This Message was edited by: Tony on 2004-02-26 22:26 ]

Tony,

I think that it could be the way you are referencing your cells.

If you would like, email me your spreadsheet and I will fix it all up for you, plus add anything else you require.

send it to ourmaizcay..at..tpg.com.au

Regards,

OM