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Old 24th September 2009, 05:03 PM
Pauls123 Pauls123 is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 245
Default "Laying" with the data base

Hi all. I've been playing with CP's data base lately and doing the opposite, trying to look for a "lay" system. And trying to keep it simple also, without trying to match up to rating sites etc. Just wondering how many of you data base users do similar.

Of course you dont want a system that obviously finds a high % of losers but has 1 bet every pancake day. And you dont want to be laying prices to high. At this point I've settled on looking at all (saturday) races with a closing price range of $2.50 to $5.00 (not necessarily fav). Over the 9 and 1/2 years of the DB, this gave you around 58 bets per saturday (all states) with a loss of -14.5%.

The winning strike rate was 23.2%. It was pretty hard to get the LOT much higher and keep it simple, but with some tweeking I managed to get it close to -20%, still a strike rate of 21.5%, but now with only around 12 bets (lays) per saturday.

Does anyone have any fors and against something like this, happy to take it further,

Paul
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