ASSESSING FIRST UP HORSES


Below is an article that I wrote about 12 months ago. Whilst the figures in the table are not current the principles remain the same.

Being able to assess first up runner/s is seen by many punters as a difficult task. Some periods of racing warrant more research and effort when dealing with first up runners as the quantity of them increases. The fact remains though, every day there are horses that resume from a let up or a spell so having the knowledge on how to assess them will prove useful.

Most punters look towards the first up statistics of a horse in order to make an assessment on whether the horse can be relied upon to race well when fresh from a spell. I believe that these statistics (those commonly found in the general race form) should be largely ignored when attempting to make such a decision. Why? Because these statistics can be very misleading. It is much better to look at a horses first up record in context of its actual performance after taking into account factors such as the class of race, beaten margin, starting price, track conditions and distance.

Horses may undergo a trainer change which will inevitably lead to different training methods being adopted. Other examples of change may include a trainer experimenting with a different type of preparation. These changes can be difficult to spot. A horse that seemingly has changes to their normal distance range when resuming is a good indication of such a training change.

Some trainers make a habit of preparing their horses to peak early in a preparation whilst others build a horses fitness through racing. Having access to quality trial form can also be a huge advantage. (R2W Axis Professional clients have this functionality)

The jockey booking can also provide a good guide on a horses chance when resuming. It makes sense that the booking of a well performed jockey may prove a good indication of what a stable considers their horses fitness to be.

I have included below, an analysis of a number of trainers that have prepared first up horses up to an SP of $10 (excluding first starters). All statistics are based on races from 1/8/2009 to 31/05/2012. Profit figures are based on proportional betting using the best of SP and NSW Tab dividends. Only those that had 100+ runners were included in the table. The results highlight the best and worst performers during that period based on profit on turnover.



So next time you are assessing the chances of a first up runner consider the other aspects not just first up statistics. Doing this will lead to better betting decisions and potentially expose big value runners that can win that are largely ignored by the market.

__________________
Regards


Paul Daily - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd (Director)
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate performance ratings that include Hong Kong.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/

Here is a couple of Questions that have intriqued me since the days of Barry Blakemore.

1/Do Fillies/ Mares have a advantage over Colts /Geldings.

2/ Is there a cutoff point between days since last run.

3 / Do favs have a advantage over non Favs .

4/ Do 2 +3 YO have any advantage over older horses.

The questions are specific to 1st Up .

Hi darkydog2002

Backing all first up runners using a sample of data covering in excess of 90,000 horses led to a strike rate of 9% and a POT of ~ -20% (level stakes) and ~ -12.4% (proportional).

What is more important though is whether the horse firmed during betting. Horses that firm in betting when first up have a strike rate of around 16% with a ~ -4.5% POT versus those that don't of around 6.5% with a ~ -13.5% POT.

Some key points to take from this:

- the market is the most accurate barometer for horses resuming;
- horses that don't firm in betting and are resuming have a loss profile that is almost impossible to overcome in the long term.

1. No. Colts, Geldings and Horses have an advantage over fillies and mares in terms of strike rate in mixed sex races.

2. I suggest anything over 300 days.

3. Absolutely. Favourites won 36% of races whereas 2nd favourites won 18.7%. The scale of market rank diminishes evenly as you would expect however the key point is that favourites resuming outperform favourites within a preparation.

4. Yes. 2 + 3YO have an advantage against older horses in terms of strike rate in mixed age races.

__________________
Regards


Paul Daily - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd (Director)
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate performance ratings that include Hong Kong.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/

Thanks Paul.
Cheers.