Hi- I am new to punting, new to Ozzie and new to this forum... so bear with me?

Just a quick question- as I know nothing about weight handycapping:

Horses differ in sizes. Do "they"(stewards?) consider that when weight "penalties" for past performances are determined? For example- two horses with absolute identical records; the one is xx hands high, the other xx+5, and the second one thus weighs in at 20 kg more. Do they get identical weights?

I would think that if they do, the heavier horse might be favoured as percentage wise it is less(of his total running weight everything up?)

Also, looking at barrier influences- Propunter does not give stats as wide barriers are not always filled- depending on the number of runners/acceptances. I cannot see why not, as it can be given as a percentage of starts. Obviously the higher draws will be less accurate because of lower numbers, but percentages could still be reasonably valid eg % tote-favourites which won from particular barrier... etc etc etc
In some instances draws could be very important- and such stats would help to choose between possibilities?

We are no longer updating the barrier stats on a weekly basis. It took quite a few hours each week and it is not possible to justify the expense based on the weekly number of hits to those pages.

Quapi....interesting pseudonym...is it from the acronym used in theoretical chemistry for qua(siadiabatic) p(ropagator path)
i(ntegral method)..just wondering.

Privateer

Audacity to question? I never questioned your stats - I merely turned them around to look at them from another perspective. Go refresh your memory.

I do think, after observing your postings, that you have an attitude problem though- something to do with your selfimage perhaps? Cannot handle questions?

But feel free to "put me in my place" anytime; other posters can see how "cool and clever" you are.

Thanks for the mature and insightful answer; I think I found another forum more suited to my level of stupidity anyway.

Yes, I agree Supersoul, it was rude and please accept my apologies.

Ok, maybe I over reacted as well...

Now how about some serious answers?

One kilo extra added to a weight diff between horses all up of 20 kg? Does that REALLY translates into, say, 1.5 lengths, or whatever, depending on race distance?

Is it not a pipe dream in reality, and only effective where all else really are the same? It cannot be that effective in a field of 18 runners- sometimes a horse wins with top weight; sometimes they do not place.

I can only see it as helpful in the sense that somebody who should know, thinks the horse is top of the heap for eg.

It would be interesting to look at stats regarding allotted weights carried and total(horse and rider) weights; or has it been done?

If I was a trainer, a rated horse would exercise with a heavy rider anyway...

Hi again everyone,
Speaking of weights.
I was told recently that if a senior jockey is taken off a good horse and replaced by an apprentice claiming 2kg or 3kg or whatever, draw a line through it immediately.
A couple of reasons for not backing a good horse under these conditions were given.
Any thoughts on this.

Dear Marilyn;
The extension to this , if the apprentice has not won on it before , because some apprentices have resonable success on certain horses.

The overall concept is a general rule & works best on Sat. metro meetings where the standard is usually higher than Prov & Country meetings.

__________________
Cheers.

Weight is one of the great racing conundrums. How can a couple of kilos extra on the back of a 600kg thoroughbred influence its performance? The handicapper has a tough task. He has to allocate a rating for every horse that runs. His task is to assign a rating such that all the runners in a handicap will finish in one big dead heat. This has never happened, and probably never will.

Weight is used to handicap a horses chance of winning. The more successful the horse, the more weight it carries and the less successful it should be in future races. At the other end of the scale poorer performed horses are allowed to carry less weight and should thus better their recent finishing positions.....allegedly!

I personally believe that horses rising in weight actually have a better chance than those dropping in weight. I also feel that far too much emphasis is placed on weight differentials by punters. Check the stats next Saturday on any meeting you choose on those rising in weight compared to those dropping and see which ones finish ahead.

Based on some stats I did a while ago, the average winning weight for metro races is 55kg.

Brumby,
Handicappers penalise last start winners 2 - 2.5 kgs if they remain in the same class. A last start runner up gets about 1.5 more, third 1 more, 4th maybe half a kilo. Variations to this will indicate that today's race is stronger/weaker depending on which way the weights go. A highly impressive win may incur slightly more.
In your example, a 2kg rise would indicate that horse had a moderate victory in the same class of race last start.