All,

Lets try some pace analysis.

According to some stats I have read 45% of the first 3 runners around the first turn are going to win. Sounds interesting if you can find a sole leader. So how are we going to determine that. We could use a pay resource (something I frown upon) or we could try and piece something together ourselves.

Some form guides have information on where the horse is running at various stages of the race. You COULD use the race(form) guides at race net or exp_ert form.

I am going to assume exp_ert form cause it is quicker but it won't be as exact as using race net (most rides have comments beside them for you to work it out).

First off give every horse a point.

Look at the last 3 races for the horse (where there is info on positions) and assign points as follows:

1. Leading at 800m = 1 points
2. Leading at 400m = 2 points
3. 2nd at 800m = 1 points
4. 2nd at 400m = 2 points
5. 3rd at 800m = 1 point
6. 3rd at 400m = 1 point

If the horse ran 1st or 2nd at 800m and 400m in all 3 runs then give a bonus 2 points.

The maximum a horse can get is 11 points.

We are looking for clear leaders that have at least a 4 point advantage over the nearest rival.

For instane Gosford today Double Dip scored 11 points. Nearest Rival had 5 points. Double Dip went on to win.

Good Luck

Look at the Caulfield 1400m races - leaders dominate when the rail is true. When it's out backmarkers have a better chance.

Go read Beyer's books if you havent already. lots of discussion about Pace, leaders etc

This might help you out Wespi: Some sole leaders

IPSWICH
r6/11,14 [If one of them is scr. you have a sole leader:-) ]
r7/1,8
r8/8,11
MORPHETTVILLE
r2/1
r7/1
r8/1,11
SANDOWN-HILLSIDE
r2/11,12
r3/9
r7/8
BELMONT PARK
r1/1
r3/7
r7/2
r8/1

Could be a nice place system by backing leaders for the place in races with 1 or 2 leaders only.

IPSWICH 'good track'
r6/11,14
r7/1,8 [2nd. 5.40p]
r8/8 [3rd. 2.00p],11
MORPHETTVILLE 'good track'
r2/1 [2nd. 1.70p]
r7/1
r8/1 [3rd. 2.00p],11
SANDOWN-HILLSIDE 'slow track'
r2/11,12 [2nd. 1.90p]
r3/9
r7/8 [3rd. 4.10p]
BELMONT PARK 'good track'
r1/1 [2nd. 2.00p]
r3/7 [3rd. 1.70p]
r7/2 [3rd. 2.60p]
r8/1 [3rd. 1.70p]

Backing races with one leader only for the place: O/L 9.00 R 13.80 Pr 4.80
Backing all of the above for the place: O/L 16.00 R 25.10 Pr 9.10

Leaders for today Mon.
GUNNEDAH
3/3
MURTOA
3/10
7/15E, 16E
9/1
10/8
NARRANDERA
4/4
-------------------------------------

Crash ,

Could you tell me and others where you got that info to determine your selections for yesterday and today please.

Wombat2

A subscribed service and unfortunately due to management rules I can't give that info. here as they don't advertise here [no free plugs].

Wombat2

What you can do, is go through a horses previous runs and see where they were traveling at the turn. If it's 70% in the lead, it's a leader.

A bit of effort involved but I thought I'd just let you know that method anyway. Ignore 2yr. olds as they haven't had enough runs to work out anything definite about their running style.

Wesmip

Reading all your threads with great interest

Let me know if this info would help finding leaders etc

2 09-06-2007 SW H S 2100 54.5 D JOCKEY 7 7 1.3 Hcp 500 2.8

The information above came from a free form source.

It does offer info on where the horse was running in the race. Explanations below.

after the jockey's name (in this case "D JOCKEY" I took the name out) there is a 7 and a 7
That means 7th in the field at 400m mark
7th in the field at 800m markt
1.3 lengths from the winner at the post
In a Handicap race
500 is the rating
2.8 was the price at the tote.

The first figure is it's placing in this race (2nd)

You can access all that info about leaders,on pace runners and backmarkers thru the Sportsman much cheaper than subscrining to any kind of rating service.

My only comment would be to wait a few races and observe the track bias,and which type of runners are suited on the day.

That system works quite well on the trots and dogs,and the s/r is much higher albeit at the top end of the market.

However,that's another post I am considering puting up.

[QUOTE=go4it]You can access all that info about leaders,on pace runners and backmarkers thru the Sportsman much cheaper than subscrining to any kind of rating service.
QUOTE]

Yes, the sportsman will give you that info for Sat. runners and Wed. runners too [if it still sells a mid-week paper]. Not all meetings are covered and the cost is greater than a decent form service and you have to get on ya bike and go and buy the damn thing and end up with pages all over the place doing the form.

The Sportsman doesn't cover every meeting in Aust [and NZ] 7 days a week, nor supply adjusted times for the last 10 starts and a lot of other missing info. like live 3 tab odds at the click of a mouse and a heap of other things. It's a terrible waste of trees too!