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#1
5th November 2012, 04:52 PM
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Musings from the past ..... a Decent System ?
Don't know who orignally posted this on here, but it's a good read !! sorry its' tough to read .....
some time back I backed Friday Creek at 56/1 and expressed great exhortations of jumpings for joy and had my thread removed by the moderator. However I have learned to sneak up on a significant gloat and wanted to express my opinion. On Saturday I scored on New Edge and the same principle applied as to Friday Creek. New Edge won at Kembla in a good race in March at 55/1 also. I have mentioned that I only follow listed horses and in the race on Saturday on my points system New Edge had 22 points the highest in the race. Friday Creek had 19 points the most in each case in the race. Tears i Cry had 18 points equal with molotov on Saturday. a few weeks ago Sniper's Bullet had 66 in the railway stakes 74 in the fruit and veg and Tarzi had 39 in the Railway and ran 2nd. Class not form seems to be a strong determinant in winning I have always heard this but couldnt measure it. But at least I can now afford a new hat. I could quote a lot more, e.g. Baci Amore 8 points won at 14/1 My limit 7 points won 11/1 Pepperwood had 19 points on saturday against my limit with 7 points secrets untold had 17 points. in some of these races there are out of form horses with more points and some faith is required but maybe it separates the wheat from the chaff. Shocking had 22 points. viewed had 31 points when he won the Caulfield cup. Maybe this helps the patient punter. A month ago another factor is that most races do not have a listed horse in them and i dont touch those races. I build the database from the results in mondays thoroughbreds page in the australian. its easy to do doesnt take as long as agonising over a race. maybe i could help you with the database. you also need to be able to search the data base to match the races today so that the horses are automatically found and a small gwbasic program to check each name and to add up the points for you then you write the points next to the horses name. take tears i cry for instance in any race where he was thehighest scorer at 22/1 he would have repaid 22 even bets for that win. thornhill recently won in >> Yes. group one. is group 1 dont try to put values on that may or may not be of any use. e.g. a south australian group 1 may be considered inferior to melbourne but i recall On a Jeune (placed in SA Derby) winning cranbourne cup at 42/1 also allez wonder placed vrc oaks last year winning listed at kembla grange (3/09 same day as New Edge)at 50/1 then the toorak at 43/1 just accept what it says. trying too hard has often cost me in the past. >> Cp As a matter of incidental fact, did you know that backing all outsiders on Betfair is a profit, I think it's anything over 500/1. yes they must place at listed level or won . Or better e.g. group level. Dont qualify a horse because you had a bit of luck with him. Class will catch them out. In some cases i qualify a higher staked race as in cases like brisbane there are not that many listed and group races and brisbane is a good racing venue. in I have found over time that putting higher staked country races in is risky and tend to ease up here. Benefits of what I do is that my betting is relatively restricted and a lot of days there are no bets. You see some odd results i recall in 2007 Our Bahare whose only claim to fame was placing in the vrc derby in 2003 and rarely won a race he won at 36/1 from barrier 1 as the only listed horse in a race at mornington in 2/2007 then followed up next start and won the stoney creek cup at 12/1 I was lucky enough to be at Hobart races that day. But what this says is that "we often know too much" and make decisions according to our memories of a horse or prejudices or hype. The scoring takes the prejudices out and backing selective races lessens the accummulated losses to enable us to take more risks with longshots. Maybe the trainer knows his horse is the best in the race and when they get a barrier it delivers. A simple test can also tell us the same information. every saturday there is a couple of long priced winners and occasionally on sundays. although i am not a lover of sunday racing due to short odds. a factor i use is to use the year of qualifying as a divider. e.g. as per our bahare qualifying in 2003 and backing him in 2007 which is almost 4 years 11/03 to 02/07 tells you that it has not performed in listed class for several years and for this reason you will need longer odds about it. eg. you wouldnt take 3/1 about a horse like that. and there are many of them. take a horse like fraaclase qualified in 2005 and always looks a chance but rarely wins. 4 years since listed qualiying so you wouldnt take short odds about fraaclase in fact backing it with counterfeit money may be adventurous. I would want 20/1 about fraaclase but you wouldnt get it but the 4 odd years of no placings in good races tells you something and maybe it tells you to leave it alone. However on the plus side I used to be incredulous about Tora Tora Tora in 8 Proart (5) 59.0 5yo ch h (A Durrant at Lark Hill) P Hall "proart(good)(1400)(ascot)21-11-09)8" tw 59.0, mb 0 wc 56.0, ww 56.0 Fred Factor: 2.331 i use the years as a divider. i divide the total by the last year that the horse qualified. if it is in the last year then 1. had a couple of good divs like any system these can be subjective scored with sanderson and luckily spinney featured. i also backed poor odds on some seesawing and chekvadatze (hard to spell) but good horses and very convincing. I hope you see the principle of what i do. cuts the action a bit but maybe concentrates the money particularly if you are a good judge. a good one got up in hobart today dream pedlar at 18/1 7 point and placed int he hobart cup a couple of starts back i have tidied up that program and can put up some on the blog if any one is interested. it will either make things better or make things worse. but one of my biggest failures has been trying too hard to back a winner. e.g. touching horses when i am looking for a bit rather than being patient. in black type there is more competition but higher prices. and also when the good ones are firing the odds arent that great for the winners. patience is important over the recent times i recall some big winners e.g. douro valley won a group 1 with 27 points and paying $38. no form but reasonably fresh. maldivian won the cox plate 35 points. course there are disappointments when they do nothing but i find that even when i think the form is good and have high expectations they let you down. so in general over a long period of time e.g. 20 years i havent found one system more superior to others in strike rates except that black type horses tend to get up when the barrier is right at good odds. i recall mr orient winning two in a row in brisbane recently at good odds was placed at list level in 3/08 18/1/ listed horse from barrier was was good then won next start at double figures from wide barrier. I find have had weekend with grandchildren and watched most races. good results. your numbers are pretty good on the summer cup. wasnt Jim Cassidy a treat on Solid Billing. I missed him recently apparently had a gardening accident. One of the risks and rules of our system is not to cherry pick. I am as wary of Brave Lancer as any of you. as matter of fact had a weekend at Thredbo with Chairman of Wyong jockey club in 2005 who was spruiking it in the Doing the numbers is an identifiable value that i have found I cant define by doing barriers, weights, margins, form and cuts the random betting action. By including all of the variables and possibilities sends me silly. maybe not many big results each saturday but at least a few winners and potential for some odds. Again I would like to commend Jim Cassidy on his ride yesterday I recall him winning last years Doncaster and recall that i said i credited some races of higher prizemoney with a listed B classification due to the low number of listed races in certain areas e.g. brisbane and adelaide I credit the $41,000 race in Adelaide as a listed b which gives two points for winning and 1 for placing. i've just been to northwest The point systems put some personality into the selections and i like the idea of trainers targeting wins. e.g. rathshallagh I am sure would not have gone without some backing. Rathsahallagh also placed at group 2 level at Trentham. Methods like this limit my activities to listed horses so stops the go, go, go danger of racing. I hope you had something on rathshallagh. in the case of rathshallagh it is a mistake to try to pick the eyes out of the races. a winner at 37/1 pays for a lot of sins and by trying to exact your selections might cause short odds and also miss a lot of winners. That's experience talking. A group 1 placegetter at 37/1 is a bit inviting the fact that its form was poor is a test of faith. we have been discussing this test of faith. most of us punters cant go a few races wthout a winner and that is our downfall. 
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#2
5th November 2012, 04:54 PM
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and the last bit ........
You have nailed it there Laurie a group 1 placegetter is better than a listed placegetter. My data base will be slightly different to those working strictly off listed/group results. I mentioned this a few weeks ago where i qualify higher prizemoney races to ensure a reasonable number of horses in each state. the merit of this can be seen on sunday where A Grade won the last at Warrnambool qualified at Doomben in 2/08. This satisfies the desperate desire to have a bet particularly when 16/1 was offered. I must admit I have no great expectation from racing but its nice to back a winner without getting in too deep. this is why the longer prices satisfy the urge to have a bet with a reasonable result. Ref tonight for Bank Robber will be very hard to beat but not much value for punters like me. My approach can be quite dumb as I went into the TAB at Smithton last week to check the price on With Decorum when it was $3.80 I didnt back anything but that wasn't bright as after it won $3.80 looked pretty good. Still got me on ignore LG ?? .... lol ..... then you're missing out on some potentially good stuff with this. Last edited by Barny : 5th November 2012 at 04:57 PM.
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