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  #11  
Old 10th April 2020, 09:09 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Could have done with some more cash...

Young Rascal (c)
Danon Premium
Funstar
Cosmic Force
Shout The Bar
California Zimbol
Colette
Nudge
Untamed
Chianti

Jockey: J. McDonald

Races 6-9 are Group 1s but most of the value candidates are in Race 6; I would have liked to spread my runners around a little more than I was able.

Chianti is just in as the cheapest prospect. Hopefully she doesn't come last, else I'll lose $25k off my salary cap for the final week.

I'm tempted to put the Captain's armband on Colette but - to continue the experiment - I'll continue to go how the expectation values indicate. I'm not too sure on Young Rascal, a feeling which is perhaps strengthened by the fact that none of my previous Captain choices have gotten up!
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  #12  
Old 11th April 2020, 08:47 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by walkermac
I'm tempted to put the Captain's armband on Colette but - to continue the experiment - I'll continue to go how the expectation values indicate. I'm not too sure on Young Rascal, a feeling which is perhaps strengthened by the fact that none of my previous Captain choices have gotten up!
Well, there you go. As anticipated Young Rascal didn't win and Colette did. A couple of the popular Captain picks got up, so I've consequently taking a little dive in the overall rankings; just staying within the top 1000 now. As an indication of how important Captain choice is, had I picked Colette this week and Nature Strip last week (following my own thoughts rather than the expected values), I'd be sitting around 600 places higher.
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  #13  
Old 17th April 2020, 01:28 AM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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King's Legacy (c)
Pierata
Shared Ambition
Ole Kirk
Rubisaki
Hellenism
Brandenburg
Quick Thinker
Holyfield
Untamed

Jockey: J. McDonald

Just the two Group 1s, with Race 5 containing all the value picks. Only 10 in that field too, so wherever they finish they'll earn points (and coming in the last pair won't matter as it's the final week of Supercoach Racing). Race 7 has all the big money candidates, a larger field and 3 runners around the same price at the pointy end of the markets. Right now the $4.60 favourite is Pierata, but Santa Ana Lane and Bivouac are both only at $5. I could afford any one of them and could monitor up until Saturday morning to follow the money. I'll sit on Pierata though.

The method says that King's Legacy in Race 5 is the way to go for Captain. I'm not so sure (Ole Kirk?) and the method's had a terrible run at selections. It looks a low-scoring round to me, so it'll be vital to nail both Group 1 winners - particularly the captain.
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  #14  
Old 19th April 2020, 08:48 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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And that's that! A pretty good round to finish up on with my Captain finally winning a Group 1 race and me getting a 2nd placing in the other. Every selection performed above expectation except for Holyfield - who was last picked and just whom I could afford - and even then only very slightly.

My round 7 total was 209, not the highest but pretty good considering the races that were on offer. It was the 711th highest score among players, which was also around about my final ranking of 768.

The table was quite compressed though. What could have been!? Ignoring my subjective Captain selections as noted in this thread, in Round 3 the Captain choice came down to an expected value of 28.466 vs 28.455. There is some rounding along the way and had I normalised those figures then the latter horse would have been the actual pick. That was Addeyb, who won, and there would have been a 16pt turnaround. Round 4 I actually stuffed up my Captain choice entirely and should have gone with Verry Ellegant per the figures; another 22pts lost there. Fixing just those two errors I would have finished up in 455th. Perhaps higher still if I had the method entirely in place ahead of Round 1 and had used it then.

Not to imply I'm a clever horse-judge by the way, I'm just using the market's estimation after all. My method is essentially just comparing the value of a $x shot in a Group 3 vs a $y chance in a Group 1, but I guess it goes to show how well you have to go to beat the house.
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