Based on over 5,000 selections, over 70% of city class horses win within five starts if they have won at least one metropolitan race previously in their career.

The average winning price is $7.11

The most long priced winners all come from horses which did NOT run a place at their previous start.

Of those longpriced winners (over 20/1), over 80% only ran out of a place a maximum twice in their last 5 starts.

The winning horses that ran a place at their previous start had an average winning price of $4.60.

40% of horses which won within five starts also won more than one race.

E.G. 14321 or 16115.

Maybe some might find this another useful approach. I actually took a formguide and went through it with a fine-toothed comb.
If you had backed every single horse running in every metropolitan race, in every state, for it's previous 5 starts...(including the donkeys and excluding maidens and hurdlers),
You would have made a small profit!
Astounding.

With the correct class of horses, and a good staking plan to multiply the winnings, you could make a very good profit.

For those curious, my stable system is showing a skinny profit with the 80 horses previously selected in my posting only having an average of less than two runs each.
Because I had many adverse comments about it, I won't post weekly selections, but will post the final results in table form which can be verified using Ozeform horse query and the TAB results. (VIC DIVIDENDS)

How could you make a profit by backing every horse in a race that has won 1 metro race? Not probable.

That's not what this post is getting at.

It's like someone posting statistics on favourites strike rates, and then assuming they mean to back every favourite and expect to win. The statistics would help people devise profitable systems.

[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-07-08 11:44 ]

Lumbarsua, I think EI meant the probability for each horse is there to win, not actually backing all of them at once in a single race. That is, following such a horse could make you a profit.

It makes sense- a horse which is capable of winning as proven, in the right field at the right time will do it again. I did not realise the frequency though...

So the only profitable horses (assuming avg div etc) would be the unplaced ones LS, unless the placegetters won 2 out of their next 5 starts.

Avg dividends can be misleading, with $20 dividends distorting figures.

You obviously can't follow every horse which won a metro start recently. So if you pick and choose you might end up with dividends less than the avg.

You have to look at the figures a little more objectively. No, you can't obviously back every horse, or back every horse that was unplaced at it's last start. The figures are meant as a guide only in order to formulate a refined system. There is an absolute bounty of statistics on this forum; it's how you make use of these statistics which will pay in the end.

Average dividends are just that averages. There is no reason to take into account distortion because just as there will always be horses paying upwards of $20 there will also be horses paying $1.50 etc. Averages will always balance themselves out, given enough races / horses.

The idea with the data is to apply it to horses at big prices, which have been overlooked by the betting public due to unplaced form. Trainers do not keep racing horses which are well below form, they spell them after a few bad runs. I.E. four or five bad runs. Therefore you have to read stewards reports etc. Maybe a horses poor performance could be because it is a leader and has drawn wide over its last few races over say 1400m.

Then suddenly it draws barrier four or six and wins at 10/1 even though it's past form was average. The point being the horse always had the ability, it was the victim of poor riding, interference or badly drawn.

I think when devising any system, luck in running etc. is very underrated. That is why there will always be long priced winners that are overlooked.

I am not talking about "donkeys" which finished 10 lengths behind the winner at three of it's previous starts, or only ever won one metro race out of 50 starts. I am talking about good horses that are down on recent form.
Lady Wild for instance will salute at huge odds when she wins next, because her latest form is below average, but we all know she is capable of a good win. She has had a couple of placings at Sandown and was a Listed Race winner in July last year.

Sportsbrat won at $13.00
Sheer Devotion won at $8.60

Just some examples.

There is value out there, it's just a matter of finding it, rather than going for obvious choices, which sometimes fail at poor odds anyway.

[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-07-09 12:58 ]

i have used this methord befor...it works...but i think 80 horses in the stable is to many i try to limit it to 20 top class horses and follow them for 10 starts from a spell