Other wise known as Surprise, Surprise, Surprise!

Not really a system as there are no mechanical rules, but it is quite interesting to look back at surprise winners to find, it was really no surprise at all.
The horse was just completely undervalued.

Example Leoncino at Eagle Farm yesterday.

Before resuming from a spell, this mare won a trial impressively and was sent out at 3/1 and ran 6th of 9 runners at Doomben on 30/11/2011.
J Byrne notified the stewards that he was confident of her running a big race that day and was disappointed in her performance. He thought that as she had to work early to gain position, it may have flattened her first up.
Then she is backed from 15/1 into 10/1 and wins at Eagle Farm.

Of course, it's all fine after the fact, but going through many surprise winners, one can see various consistent stories that indicate a win is in store, or at least they should be a lot shorter than the price they are sent out.

I call it the Gomer Pyle System.

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