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  #1  
Old 16th September 2012, 01:56 AM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,366
Default Arbitrage

Not much discussion on arbitrage around here, so I thought
i'd post some research and advice I've found. Please note, much of this is researched from other sources with my input.

========
Calculator
========

The free arbitrage calculator I use is this:

Code:
http://www.windowsarbitragecalculator.com/downloads.php?cat_id=1


Some of the key features you will find:

You can use UK odds(e.g 5/2), EU odds(e.g 3.4), US odds(e.g -220) at the same time, without changing any settings in the main arbitrage calculator.
There is no accept or calculate button. This has been designed from the ground up to be as fast as possible to use. It will update all the calculations as you type.
It can be used for up to 8 standard arbitrage selections or it can be used for greening up trades on Betfair style sites (FAST!)
Both modes have multiple features, including equal split winnings, favourite only or even smoothing the bets to the nearest 5 or 10 to not make bookmakers suspicious.
Works as a standalone Windows application as long as you have .NET 3.5 SP1 installed.
It is only 52K with no install or registry changes leaving your PC as clean after you use it as it was before you used it.
Absolutely no spyware.

==============================
Bookmakers and keeping accounts open.
==============================

Bet round dollar numbers.
Never work out your stakes to round amounts, e.g. stake to $100 or $500
Make it an odd amount.

When your account is winning with a bookie, use the basic fake-a-loss technique by laying your bets off at Betfair.
I find the best way to "transfer" winnings back to Betfair, is to back very short soccer or tennis bets and lay off on Betfair.
If the bet wins, you're not increasing your winnings enough to get you shut down, and sooner or later something will fall over.

You don't want to look professional, so never withdraw winnings in the conventional manner and rest winning accounts in favour of losing ones.
Many times this strategy also gives you a reload bonus from the bookie because they notice you've stopped betting with them.

Avoid moving money into and out of your accounts using banking any more often than is absolutely necessary.
Bookies incur quite significant banking costs if you use bank cards.
If they are already having doubts about your account, there is nothing quite like a whole pile of bank fees to tip them over the edge.

A really good way of getting accounts limited is to open an email about a reload offer, make a debit card deposit, milk the offer, then withdraw all your money again.

Use Skrill or Paypal to deposit or withdraw.
Spread your Arbs amongst a few bookies if possible.
Arbing is all very well but if you are placing $200 bets on some obscure event, it won’t be that long before your bookie limits you. It would be better to place four arbs of $50 across a whole range of bookies, so the risk of unwanted attention is reduced.

More to follow...

Code:
Betstar is offering double fixed odds on all Group 1 races for Spring


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http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
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  #2  
Old 16th September 2012, 03:10 AM
Raven Raven is offline
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Default

Highly recommend Betstar

They offered double the odds on a 9 race Randwick meeting in the Autumn; I cleared $300 on the day. Also have good sports incentives like $2 NRL faves, $2 lines etc for a weekend if you like that sort of thing. I think there is something like 22 G1's this spring so theres $600-$700 to be made.

My $500 initial deposit is currently at $2900 and nothing but good service so far.
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  #3  
Old 16th September 2012, 01:10 PM
Mark Mark is offline
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CP, i've just had another LOSING a/c with sportbset closed. How or why are they still in business???
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  #4  
Old 16th September 2012, 02:56 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Perhaps they have your IP address to identify you.
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
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  #5  
Old 16th September 2012, 03:08 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Following on:

I'm not covering Bonus Bagging here, as SA and Victorian residents are ineligible.

There are many free sports arbitrage services, the best being oddschecker and bestbetting. While they don't actually provide an alert service, you can quickly see all matches / games percentages with one click.

Oddschecker has bumper coupon for soccer, any percentage under 100% is an arb. The same applies to their tennis coupon.
A very quick and handy way to save time.

Bestbetting allows you to review every single soccer division for the week ahead, and automatically highlights potential arb opportunities across all European and international leagues, on markets from Match Odds to 'Draw No Bet' and 'Half Time Result'.
All you do is go to bestbetting.com, then click on 'Football' in the left hand column, then select one of the competitions – e.g. Champions League – and keep clicking through, until you get to a list of individual matches.
We're simply looking for a 3-way arb where the total percentage shown in the right hand column for the best available, combined odds is below 100%.
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
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  #6  
Old 16th September 2012, 08:03 PM
Mark Mark is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
Perhaps they have your IP address to identify you.


Midway through my travels when it was "restricted".
Shame really because today they bet some massive overs compared to betfair.
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  #7  
Old 16th September 2012, 08:18 PM
moeee moeee is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark
CP, i've just had another LOSING a/c with sportbset closed.

You say that like its a bad thing.
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  #8  
Old 17th September 2012, 09:04 PM
Mark Mark is offline
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Unhappy

You obviously don't get it moeee. Yesterday there were at least 5 cases of Sportsbet being way over Betfair prices. One you could have backed at 31 and laid at 15. Not being able to take advantage of that I'd definitely call a bad thing
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  #9  
Old 19th September 2012, 11:35 AM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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In fact horse racing presents some of the better opportunities for arbitrage percentage wise, as compared with sports.
Often a bookies price can be above Betfair trading price as Mark suggested.
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
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  #10  
Old 6th October 2012, 01:49 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Pretty quiet in here at the moment and I've been busy arbing all over the place, so haven't had time to post much, but here's the next installment.

This is the advanced arbitrage guide:

So here we are looking at Best Odds Guaranteed bookies and seeing if we can lay on Betfair at similar prices.
The catch is that many prices are over the bookies prices and so I was only getting matched on one or two horses and so a long time between winners and lots of commission paid for losers.
Couple that with the fact that at least half the BOG bookies don't accept Aussies, we are left with only five prospects.
Unfortunately, the one's we can't get set with often offer the best odds

So realistically left with two perhaps three bookies to use, and getting the same or less odds on more than one or two selections, especially favoured ones is greatly diminished.
This is because the top three or four fancied make up the largest percentage of the book and Betfair users will usually back a few percent above early bookies prices, making it locking in a loss unless too many times to catch the benefits of best odds guaranteed drifters that actually go on to win.

The strategy then is to find a BOG bookie that pays 1/4 (a quarter) the place and BOG the win. To date the only bookie that offers this AND pays three places is Bet365. BEWARE: Many BOG bookies offer 1/4 the place but only pay two places.

Using this strategy one can benefit if the horse drifts, but also lay a bit higher for the win if required because the place odds you get are slightly higher.

The rule I use is half a point limit higher on the win portion providing I can lay lower on the place.

For example if a horse is $6.00 with the bookie, we work out the place price to be $2.25 quarter odds as opposed to $2.00 one fifth odds.
So I would lay for the win up to $6.50 instead of $6.00.

It's probably clear as mud, because I understand what I'm doing but it's hard to convey, so here's a real world example in the first race at Ascot (UK) tonight.

Garswood is $3.25 with Bet365 and $3.40 on the exchange.
For a $10 stake I lock in a loss of $1.50 and hope it drifts and wins.
If it wins but doesn't drift I lose $1.50.
If it loses, I lose 0.46 cents in commission.

However, working out the place odds, Bet365 will give me $1.56 place odds.
I've just been matched @ $1.49 on Betfair.

Now the picture looks better.

Garswood wins but doesn't drift, I lose $1.50 the win, but win $0.70 the place. Outcome, lose $0.80 (nearly halved the loss).

Garswood wins and drifts, happy days, I pick up $0.70 plus any profit from it drifting.

Garswood doesn't win but places 2nd or 3rd, I lose $0.46 from betfair win market and win $0.70 from place bet @ Bet365.

Garswood is unplaced, I lose $0.92.

However, if we do this with multiple runners, the losses in commission are reduced.

That's the guts of it.
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
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