Now i know in the past i have been one to knock those that will only look for value and back overs, i have been giving this some thought and wonder how i would go just backing overs in all races, i am not talking my top 2 or 3 selections but the whole field and just backing those that exceed say 20% above my price and backing them to my prices.

Above all i know is when i get the ratings correct the prices reflect the chances, yes they are not always accurate and i get dismayed at how they perform at times but i am rock solid that i have my pricing model correct, sounds strange i can have 110% faith in the prices but not always the ratings themselves as the ratings dictate the prices.

I guess it depends on how many runners i end up backing per race and the prices i get, i may need some sort of cut off point, any thoughts on this idea welcome.

__________________
One Drive

"If the corporates are treating you poorly , just go elsewhere."
"If they need you , they will soon find out."
"If you need them , you will soon find out." --moeee
_______________________________________________

Based on my betting history from the past 2+ years I can say it 100% works consistently. My graph upward trend is undeniable. This is all I do. Yes you'll have down swings every now and then but overall you'll end up on top. More on international racing, in comparison to Aus/NZ. Don't back though if the corresponding lay price is over 8.00

Why not make the cut off point the 6th OPENING fav. of the bookies market.

Cheers

I have decided on a limit, must be rated at less than $15 by me, this reduces the number of selections to around 2-6 depending on field size and such, i am also dutching to my prices to get the best odds as all selections must be overs to begin with, will see how it goes.

Hey Pat, thanks for the input great to see it is possible.

__________________
One Drive

"If the corporates are treating you poorly , just go elsewhere."
"If they need you , they will soon find out."
"If you need them , you will soon find out." --moeee
_______________________________________________

Hi Shaun

Perhaps look at it a different way. Rather than locking yourself into a strategy that limits when you can bet (“must be rated less than $15 by me”) why not think of value/overs as a minimum real percentage advantage that has to be achieved before you bet. For example if your rated probabilities total 100% and you decide that the minimum advantage you require is say ~5% in real terms (we work on slightly less) then at the following rated prices the odds you would need are:

Rated $2.00 can be bet at ~$2.25
Rated $3.00 can be bet at ~$3.60
Rated $5.00 can be bet at ~$6.50
Rated $10.00 can be bet at ~$20.00
Rated $15.00 can be bet at ~$60.00

Essentially the value/overs is the same for all the above examples, yet many punters would consider a dividend of $60.00 about a rated selection of $15.00 better value than $2.25 about a rated selection of $2.00 which is clearly not the case.

IMO another element worth considering is to then determine you own scale of confidence levels about each race you rate. Once complete I would recommend that you consider implementing a different size wager for each percentage point above your minimum advantage level if you know what I mean. Also for each confidence level apply a different Power Exponent so that your rated prices are more aggressive in the races in which you are most confident.

Hope that helps

__________________
Regards


Paul Daily - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd (Director)
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate performance ratings that include Hong Kong.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/

Some interesting theories put forward here,
On how to back all overlays that you have in a race,
And make a motza of money.

If you are starting re post-4 then I wish,
You all the best & hope you make a stack.

Without giving an opinion let me post this scenario,
I am assuming your 1-2 3-4-5-6 picks etc are all profitable,
When backing overlays as there is no mention they are not.

Wish I could do that with mine.

Scenario-1.(1 MINUTE BEFORE JUMP).

SHAUN. MARKET.
1) 1.8. - 1.5.
2) 4.5. - 4.2.
3) 6.0. - 12.0.

Scenario-2.
SHAUN. MARKET.
1) 4.75 - 4.75.
2) 5.0. - 4.8.
3) 5.5. - 5.5.
4) 6.0. - 15.0..

Lets assume all other runners are,
The same or under your rated price,
In both scenarios.

The first scenario is a VIC-METRO,
Sat -race & the market percentage ,
Of all runners before jump is 109%.

The second scenario is a SYD-CNTRY,
MON-race & the market percentage,
Of all runners before jump is 158%.

So we happily back no's-3 in scenario one,
And no's-4 in scenario two & laugh all the,
Way to the bank as to how easy it is even,
Though the $6.0 chance is 3rd pick in scenario-1,
And 4th pick in scenario-2 forget our other chances,
In front of them or the top 1-2 market percentages,
In scenario-1 we can beat the market like the above.

Good luck with it all there is a way to possibly,
Do this but it needs much more work.

That's for another post & not from me.

Cheers.