OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

#41

10th August 2007, 10:48 AM

Mark

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Location: Qld

Posts: 1,404

Paid for itself this morning. Made a few small practice books on the previously dreaded US races and picked up a lazy $30.

#42

10th August 2007, 04:01 PM

Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline

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Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 4,366

You must have got around the liquidity problem, those markets are near impossible to read (for me) until they are at the wire.

On another point, Adam, has revealed that he operates on .25% POT but his volume is enormous.

Quote:

But by doing a turnover of over GBP50 Million worth of bets during that time using a trading bank of only GBP3000 I made that quarter of a percent worth having. A quarter of a percent of GBP50 million is over GBP100,000 profit without ever having a losing week and at one point going 11 months without a losing day. And I was only able to do such a large volume of bets because by taking such small profits and doing lots of scratch trades and getting out of all positions quickly I was free to churn my bank over and over again.

His best piece of advice:

Quote:

If you can’t get out of your trade with an instant small profit then you should get out immediately at the same price that you got in at, a Scratch trade. If you can make a single tick profit on 30% of your trades and break even on the rest of your trades you will make money by getting it right less than half of the time on an up or down chance.

However, in not one of the 120 demo videos we see is he confronted by the jumping market against him. When it goes against him he only breaks even or loses one to two ticks.

A common scenario, is that suddenly and without warning, the market price jumps dramatically and he would have lost one whole unit, or more, before he could react.

Last night for example, the market price suddenly went from trading around $3.50, $3.60 to $6.80, $7.00 in an instant without any market indications and from that point never fell below $5.80.

He does not address when this happens, and it happens quite regularly, and in high volume markets.

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Last edited by Chrome Prince : 10th August 2007 at 04:10 PM.

#43

10th August 2007, 04:34 PM

Mark

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Location: Qld

Posts: 1,404

Not much liquidity this morning but definite bookie advantages. I averaged 102% on small holds, one was 99.6% so I took a small risk the fav, but one race was 106%. Ever since I discovered the UK markets on Betfair, my average t/o has been around $1million p/a with 1.5 - 2.5% profits, year in year out.

Tapping into the ridiculous Big Brother markets has been gold, and the RU World Cup should be fat as well. I'm holding over $84000 on the WC winner already at around 100.7%.

Last edited by Mark : 10th August 2007 at 04:36 PM.

#44

10th August 2007, 07:44 PM

odericko

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Posts: n/a

ok its stupid question time?? would a tick be a profit made and 2ticks 2 profits made off the same horse??ect ect..ty

#45

10th August 2007, 11:54 PM

odericko

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ok another incredulous question asuming you guys r traders do you only step in when the price differential is 5..?

#46

11th August 2007, 02:20 AM

Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline

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Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 4,366

Could be, or then again might not be.

What I mean is that a lot of traders do it differently, there's no hard and fast rules.

But I'm not a trader nor a bookmaker, I'm an opportunist.

Sometimes you can get one tick profit in one race on one horse, other times you can get ten ticks profit on the same horse in the same race, or one tick per runner, it depends entirely what you want to do, and what suits you.

#47

11th August 2007, 08:58 AM

Bhagwan

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 2,428

.Hi Mark,
I can see what you mean about the UK markets.
I was haveing a little dabble with their ****** races where they have only six runners.
The prices where amazingly high .
The fav often was atound the $3.80 mark
The rest of the field around the $4.50-5.50 mark.
The prices where all over the shop.

The horse racing was even more amazing.
The national average for a Fav winning is 35% at almost break even odds.

Compared to Aust which is around the 28-30% mark with a loss of around 10-20%

I can see why one prefers the UK markets.

Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

#48

11th August 2007, 11:38 AM

Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline

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Posts: 4,366

The flat percentage is 30%, the hurdle percentage is 40%, thus why the difference in overall percentage.

#49

14th August 2007, 07:51 PM

salty

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Join Date: Feb 2006

Posts: 46

I have downloaded bet trader and it appears ready to go. The problem I am having is that the videos have sound but no picture. I have the latest java and have no problems with multi media normally. Anyone got any suggestions?

#50

14th August 2007, 08:49 PM

Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline

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Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 4,366

Try updating your flash player and shockwave player at adobe.com, that will be the problem.

Not only are the videos helpful, they are actually very entertaining and funny.

"They're all b a s t a r d s"

"The price is drifting, the trainer fed him a gallon of porridge and is laying him at any price"

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