OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

#41

27th September 2012, 06:25 PM

Barny

Member

Join Date: Dec 2010

Posts: 1,091

As a comparison .....

$50 win or better
METRO
72,656 selections
511 winners
LOT 49.81%

#42

27th September 2012, 06:31 PM

Barny

Member

Join Date: Dec 2010

Posts: 1,091

1,000m to 1,200m show a profit. Any longer than that shows a loss.

#43

27th September 2012, 07:05 PM

Vortech

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by mattio

Vortech,

With an idea such as this there are a couple of ways you could tackle it, one could be to use a loss recovery (depending on the run of outs) or trending past results to help determine what days to bet and what days to watch.

I'll do an analysis of results and see if I can help you find an edge.

Cheers,

Mat.

Thanks Mat, Some productive feedback.

#44

27th September 2012, 07:10 PM

Vortech

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barny

If you get 10 cents or more on a $1.40 pop, then it wont be a bet will it, 'coz it will be over $1.50. A further inconsistency in your argument is that if you apply any filters Vortech your number of selections will diminish, which is against your philosphy.

You simply cannot make this a winner Vortech. There too much going against you here.

With Bet Selector the prices are using NSW.
So a favourite might be $1.40 and classed a bet.
However you might get $1.60 on the best of three totes.
This would still be classified a bet.

I just want to point out - I'm not betting using this system. It was trying to get some people an idea that their is value in the shorties.

Why do you jump into every thread and argue against a theory that is different to your opinion??

#45

27th September 2012, 07:15 PM

Barny

Member

Join Date: Dec 2010

Posts: 1,091

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vortech

Thanks Mat, Some productive feedback.

So was mine regarding the distances Vortech.

It's inevitable that you must filter out distances longer than 1,200m

470 selections
304 winners
LOT of 8.4%

You cannot turn that around !!

#46

27th September 2012, 07:18 PM

moeee

Suspended

Join Date: Jan 1970

Location: Melbourne

Posts: 5,359

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vortech

Why do you jump into every thread and argue against a theory that is different to your opinion??

If it was me jumping in , it would be to point out a glaring error.
Instead of getting a Thank You all it usually leads me to is getting banned.

#47

27th September 2012, 07:23 PM

Vortech

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barny

So was mine regarding the distances Vortech.

It's inevitable that you must filter out distances longer than 1,200m

470 selections
304 winners
LOT of 8.4%

You cannot turn that around !!

We were at a close to break even result now at around a 8.4% loss. helpful how???

#48

27th September 2012, 07:25 PM

Barny

Member

Join Date: Dec 2010

Posts: 1,091

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vortech

Why do you jump into every thread and argue against a theory that is different to your opinion??

I've never jumped into a thread about laying, or Betfair, which takes up the majority of the threads on here. It appears that you only want the good news, to hear opinions that back up your views.

Sorry if I've brought some FACTS, and logic to this thread.

#49

27th September 2012, 07:27 PM

Barny

Member

Join Date: Dec 2010

Posts: 1,091

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vortech

We were at a close to break even result now at around a 8.4% loss. helpful how???

The loss is for distances over 1,200m Vortech. It's helpful 'coz it will save you from LOSING !!

1,000m to 1,200m shows a profit, but reduces the number of selections quite dramatically.

#50

27th September 2012, 07:38 PM

Barny

Member

Join Date: Dec 2010

Posts: 1,091

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vortech

If you have an email addy I can send you the whole data sheet tomorrow.

Interesting I ran the test for Oct 07 to Aug 12 for SP - 1st, Price Fav 1.1 - 1.5. all races, all days

1775 Races, 1170 Wins (65.9% SR), -7.1% POT

Metro Brisbane - 75%
Metro Adelaide - 70%
Metro Melbourne - 70%
Metro Sydney - 76%
Metro Perth - 71%
Rural QLD - 69%
Rural NSW - 66%
Rural VIC - 66%
Rural SA - 61%
Rural WA - 74%
New Zealand - 49% - good laying options
Hong Kong - 58%

Good - 66%
Dead - 67%
Slow - 65%
Heavy - 59%

Colt - 71%
Filly - 69%
Gelding - 64%
Mare - 62%

Age 2 - 69%
3 - 68%
4 - 64%
5 - 60%
6 - 57%
7 - 45%
8 - 67%
9 - 67%

Monday races - 59%
Tuesday - 61%
Wednesday - 62%
Thursday - 62%
Friday - 70%
Saturday 70%
Sunday 64%

You'll love this Vortech, the result comparison is unbelievably close.

7 days a week all Venues (I prev put up METRO only)

4.52 selections
2,657 winners
7.09% LOT (compared to your 7.1% LOT)

Ya still cannot win tho' !!!!!!

Happy to confirm your results, no thanks required.

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