For a humble punter like myself who does not have the ability of the magical 2%
to be able to read the trainers mind or discover the eureka filter I find it next to impossible to select winners @ $10 >.

Yesterday there were three race meetings for a total of twenty-three races.In ten of the twenty-three races the winner was $10> several of them astronomically so.

This is 43.5% of all races on the day.This figure is not unusual for either mid-week racing or the Saturday extravaganza.

The only figure in racing that does not surprise me is that 98% of punters lose.

I gave up trying to pick winners long ago,these days I concentrate on picking losers which keeps me in the game.Thank heavens for betfair.

Not sure it's magic or reading minds.
More like roll up the sleeves and start looking for runners which...

(a) have won before in similar race, conditions
(b) can win today given field, conditions, weights, jock etc
(c) have been largely ignored by the market, punters

This takes work&time, rather than magic(or words that rythme?) - if I had to name an old fox whose 'style' fits with this gig, it would be...Barny!

You may need to turn your mind inside out to filter out the value embedded in his posts, however - more work, less magic.

Good luck, syllabus23!


LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

Join the Club Syllabus23,
There,s no Magical Filter and Mind Readers I leave to the Charlatans.

Cheers.

I rarely have a $10 Winner as being my top selection in a race.
But I often have a $10 winner amongst my top 3 selections.
It sounds Syllabus23 that you are only backing the animal you think is the most likely winner.
Darkydog2002 narrows races down to as many as 6 selections , and he very often gets winners over the $10 Mark.

If you want to experience backing longshot winners back the third and fourth ranked place percent horses in a race at Metropolitan meetings when the price is > $10 or better still > $20.

For Country events; Try a horse that's had at least two runs in, has career sts of say 10 to 20 or thereabouts, hasn't started for more than 28 days = Freshened (this is a big turn off), and has career wins of between 2 and 4. I've underlined the important factors.

By keeping the more popular filters out, you're actually increasing the odds on others. The thinking behind this is that the horse is overdue for a win, and surely the trainer wouldn't put it out for more than 28 days, bring it back if it wasn't fit !!

For Metro; Try a horse that's had 2 or 3 runs back, career sts 10 to 20 (still got some improvement), is going up to a distance that it either hasn't run at before or hasn't won at before. The "d" being important is a myth.

For Metro & Country; You could try backing a horse that's backing up within 4 to 6 days, and is increasing in weight from it's last start.

With all of the above, obviously one of your filters will be $10 to $20. There will be winners in this price range. If you can seek out an "Unpopular" filter that logically fits, then you've increased your odds ..... Stands to reason !!, coz the popular filters will decrease the odds to a point where they're overbet, so the balance has to be that the odds of horses with unpopular fitlers / form will increase in similar proportion to the decrease of the odds of those with popular filters.

LG, thanks for the compliment, but what I know about handicapping and the actual conveyance itself you could write on the back of a postage stamp ..... But I believe I don't need to know all the details. What continually blows me away, and continually reinforces my opinion of how to extract a quid from this caper is what woof43 posted this morning, and other similar postings of quality information.

woof43 - And in there lays the story of centipetal force and the effect of Mass.

The normal stable ring around on a friday, questions always generally revolve around Mass, fitness and sustained pace % of distance to max speed are the items always high on the agenda.

kenchar posted once about the most important piece of information ..... bloodcounts !! So with kenchar's bloodcounts and woof43's centipetal force & the effect of mass, you've got to ask yourself "Where does that leave me?" We're not inside the stable and we're not the Vet. But we're assuming that inside knowledge leads to backing winners, well IMHO (old age acronym for Is My Hearingaid On) it's not necessarily so. Inside info may lead to a reduction with losing bets, but surely horses surprise the stable at times. I'm also aware that a Christmas Bonus for some stable hands is that the stable sets a horse for a race and they're all on it ..... Fact or Fantasy ?! I don't know. What I do know is that these are things we'll never know. I'm absolutely certain that if we do the same as everyone else then we're consigned to being in that illustrious group of 98% of punters, big club isn't it ??

Geoff Murphy used to back his horses when they were better tha 4 / 1, because he assumed that with his S/R he couldn't lose. So do you look at the "races" and see horses coming back from a spell, say you spot a 4 y/o with decent form, and as a 3 y/o last time in work they won over 1400 3rd up ..... Logic would tell you that they're going to need an extra run this time in to get to peak fitness and also they may be tried at 1600m. So, pencil them in for 4th up over 1600m and unless it's form is absolutely miserable, back it for that one run over 1600m and maybe also the run after. This takes the mystery and overanalysis out of the equation. 90% of the posters / readers on here would analyse a race within an inch of it's existance ..... Is racing that scientific, and if so, how do they factor in one of the more important elements , LUCK? If you can "see" what the trainer sees, then let him or her do their job and you'll be well rewarded.

Keep it simple ..... the more I "enjoy" my database the more futile I see the exercise of being scientific in the world where LUCK plays such a major role in delivering an outcome.

How about providing members with a selection for todays races Barny?
Or tomorrows?

The high esteem with which I'm held on this forum would see an avalanche of money being plunged on my selection moeee, it would certainly lead to carnage, even to a suspension of betting. It could be known as Barnygate, and the racing industry is already up to it's ears with Nicolic and Oliver, it doesn't need one more high profile person being involved in an investigation moeee. Also my identity would be exposed moeee, and if you've tuned into Play School recently then you would surely have seen me ..... I don't need this at all.

As much as I'd like to help out my fellow man, drag them up from the gutter so to speak, and put them on the path to riches, I simply cannot. The Fabric of society, as we know it could be jeoparised. It's that fine a line moeee.

Yeah - Same with me.
But i do make an effort.
I try to treat Gambling with the seriousness that it deserves.
I'm sure there are a number of members who are having difficulties and deserve a winning selection.