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  #1  
Old 24th November 2011, 08:26 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Default Backing Champions

Interested to know if anyone approaches punting a la Harry Findlay.
Where you identify, champion sportsmen, horses, teams and follow them for a period of time taking the best odds you can.

Of course the trouble is knowing when and how to identify a champion.

However, for example, just having a few bets this year on Black Caviar, Roger Federer, Sebastian Vettel etc. would see a fairly decent return (POT wise).

So even after everyone knew BC was a standout horse, this year would have been 20% POT at lousy tote prices. Probably 30% at Betfair.

In his last year before going to stud Lonhro would have been 24% POT even after his final race defeat.

Even in the last year of Sunline and Northerly's campaigns, (not Northerly's return from retirement), one would have made a profit at best odds.
And these are the one's that every man and his dog knew were champs.
So imagine being able to filter out those champs past it and concentrate on those at their peak.
Or better still, identifying potential champs.

I know Findlay incorporates this type of thing, and in fact was here in Aus to see Black Caviar run.

Anyone like to share thoughts?
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  #2  
Old 24th November 2011, 11:35 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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I see 3 problems

1) Finding the so called champion
2) Not getting on to late to enjoy the ride and not getting bucked off
3) Having enough action to keep you happy and make it all worth the wait.
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  #3  
Old 25th November 2011, 09:12 AM
lomaca lomaca is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
I see 3 problems

1) Finding the so called champion
2) Not getting on to late to enjoy the ride and not getting bucked off
3) Having enough action to keep you happy and make it all worth the wait.
Agreed Shaun,
I have very few bets as is but waiting for champs to race would be agonising.

On top of that I am a firm believer that no horse is a "sure" bet at odds on.
OK the champs usually are, but still, as you say by the time you identify them, usually the odds are such that it's hardly worth backing them.
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  #4  
Old 25th November 2011, 09:32 AM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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True but even after good horses are established, there's money to be made, albeit a smaller advantage.
I've been looking at something with a little lower expectation.

Findlay works on only 4% return and uses betting exchanges almost exclusively.
His theory and it's proven, is that he only needs to avoid one loser in 10 to make his money, or identify a $1.50 shot that should be $1.40.

Yesterday I avoided three losers from hotpots, last night avoided 1 loser.
Perhaps I'm looking at it all wrong and so is he!

I looked at some of his advertised bets and avoided bets, and he would have made more money and risked less money by laying his avoided bets, because most of what he avoids are odds on "bad bets".
But then you get to the point, where he just avoids them but still thinks they will win, but the query is enough not to bet.

As he says, even with all that certainties get beaten, but if one eliminates one loser from 10, you're over the line.

As far as action goes, just looking for genuine chances after eliminating a couple of query horses, the action is still pretty good considering we can bet worldwide on horses (gallops and harness) and sports.

Might post my bets and reasoning and give it a shot.
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  #5  
Old 25th November 2011, 10:31 AM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Here's one of my examples from Brazilian F1 Grand Prix markets, which I follow as closely as the horses, qualifying tomorrow, race on Sunday.

Fastest Lap bets - no.
Too often the winner can win by greater than 10 seconds and still have another driver record the fastest lap.

Overall qualifying winner - no.
Again, the best chance driver may not extend his car to pole position, as tyre strategy can mean he starts from 2nd or 3rd on the grid, but still be the best chance.

Podium finish (to be placed) Yes

Sebastian Vettel currently $1.23.
Anything over $1.20 looks value, barring vehicle failure and accidents, he's there.
The retirement at Abu Dhabi was due to tyre failure, not a puncture, not driver error and more importantly, not engine or drivetrain failure.
Anything greater than 80% chance is value.
They're currently looking to lay him at $1.24 and back him at $1.30.
I think I can squeeze out $1.26 considering allowances for commission.

Points Finish No.
Vettel at $1.06, no value there, if he doesn't get a podium, he's not going to finish in the points.

Qualifying Top 3 NO
$1.08 is too short considering my reasoning for avoiding the overall qualifying winner bet.

Safety car Yes/No - no
Mug bet unless it's Monaco.

Top 6 Finish -no
Again if Vettel isn't on the podium, he probably won't finish in the top 6.
Better podium and win value.

And here are what I consider the value bets.

Considering the two markets of overall winner and winning team.

Vettel is $2.08 to win it, I think that's generous odds we wouldn't have got if he won at Abu Dhabi.
I would have assessed him at around $1.70, anything over $2.00 is good value. $2.08 won't last long if he qualifies on pole, so I'll probably snap that up and try for $2.10 as well. If he doesn't qualify on pole and the price drifts, I'll take anything over $2.10.

Winning car odds are:
$1.69 Red Bull
$2.72 McLaren

Happy with the $2.10 Vettel, don't think Weber will win if Vettel doesn't, so the winning car bet looks poor value. Weber's car is just not right and hasn't been the entire last half of season, the car is off the boil and paddock rumour is he's none too happy, but fronts a brave face to the media.
I think this is some of the reason why Weber and Vettel are polite in public, but have a rift behind the garage.

$2.72 McLaren looks value to me if Vettel doesn't win, I think Button or Hamilton will win.

So in summary I'm going for:
Vettel on Podium @ $1.24 or better.
A double bet on Vettel as overall winner @ $2.10 or better.
McLaren team winner @ $2.72 or better.

Possible outcomes are:
Vettel wins 2.34 units profit
Vettel places, Mclaren team wins lose 0.04 of a unit (can live with that)
Vettel places, McLaren does not win -2.76 units.
Vettel unplaced McLaren wins -1.28 units
Vettel unplaced, McLaren loses -4 units

Best result 2.34 units profit
Worst result 4 units loss

Happy with the odds of Vettel unplacing and McLaren losing.

See how we go.
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  #6  
Old 25th November 2011, 10:36 AM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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This idea is a bit like the old stable of runners idea, i have used the stable in the past with success and failure.

The selection process was different back then but i always believed that if you can identify a runner early enough in its career that if you backed it for the rest of it's racing life you can make money, a bit like buying the right stock.

I have never fully tested the idea it is just something i have thought about.
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  #7  
Old 25th November 2011, 10:38 AM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Won't let me edit my post, it's 1.44 units profit best result.
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  #8  
Old 25th November 2011, 10:43 AM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
This idea is a bit like the old stable of runners idea, i have used the stable in the past with success and failure.

The selection process was different back then but i always believed that if you can identify a runner early enough in its career that if you backed it for the rest of it's racing life you can make money, a bit like buying the right stock.

I have never fully tested the idea it is just something i have thought about.


Yes Shaun, back in the very early 80's when I was around 20, I started an excercise book, which I used to follow horses.
The best one's I had were Sir Dapper, Emancipation,Snippets, Luther's Luck, Rory's Jester and Foxseal.
Unfortunately, I also had a lot of horses that looked promising but failed miserably.
But I still remember the wins of some of those horses when they weren't favourite!
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  #9  
Old 25th November 2011, 11:35 AM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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You might find this interesting, this is info i got from R&S site, this is the first 25 in the list of top 100


Code:
Rank Horse PM Wins % Place % Starts Prize Money $10 W/Profit POT % $10 P/Profit POT % 1 SEPOY $3,725,000 10 91% 1 9% 11 $3,785,000 120 109.4% 307 44.3% 2 DUNADEN $3,600,000 6 30% 10 50% 20 $4,024,969 1,143 571.5% 339 129.5% 3 BLACK CAVIAR $3,106,000 16 100% 0 0% 16 $4,291,750 70 43.7% 397 33.0% 4 JIMMY CHOUX $2,596,875 12 52% 7 30% 23 $3,374,050 116 50.4% 488 68.6% 5 PINKER PINKER $2,337,125 6 38% 4 25% 16 $2,421,118 370 231.3% 384 178.1% 6 SOUTHERN SPEED $1,863,850 4 31% 3 23% 13 $1,863,850 48 36.9% 121 43.5% 7 HELMET $1,541,500 6 60% 3 30% 10 $1,548,200 91 91.3% 284 90.1% 8 MOSHEEN $1,539,200 3 33% 4 44% 9 $1,539,200 38 41.7% 135 81.7% 9 SHAMROCKER $1,533,000 4 22% 4 22% 18 $1,939,388 485 269.4% 204 104.4% 10 SACRED CHOICE $1,443,500 9 25% 11 31% 36 $2,128,090 294 81.7% 400 79.9% 11 CEDARBERG $1,301,450 4 24% 4 24% 17 $1,480,917 670 394.1% 229 134.3% 12 MANAWANUI $1,216,980 6 67% 2 22% 9 $1,216,980 73 81.4% 200 50.2% 13 MUFHASA $1,124,500 16 35% 10 22% 46 $2,528,687 549 119.3% 699 77.5% 14 SINCERO $1,061,550 11 58% 1 5% 19 $1,406,750 191 100.4% 513 87.4% 15 GLASS HARMONIUM $1,029,750 5 23% 7 32% 22 $1,270,791 38 17.2% 42 9.1% 16 SANGSTER $1,002,050 3 38% 3 38% 8 $1,007,050 108 135.0% 115 61.9% 17 BEADED $941,000 10 45% 11 50% 22 $1,508,580 81 36.7% 331 49.5% 18 MORE JOYOUS $933,000 15 68% 2 9% 22 $2,361,500 50 22.6% 365 32.1% 19 LOVE CONQUERS ALL $930,000 8 36% 7 32% 22 $1,324,050 306 139.3% 264 49.3% 20 RED CADEAUX $900,000 5 21% 8 33% 24 $1,164,350 100 41.7% 143 40.2% 21 LUCKYGRAY $859,825 7 78% 1 11% 9 $859,825 155 172.2% 385 122.0% 22 PLAYING GOD $789,125 6 29% 8 38% 21 $1,013,225 14 6.7% 92 18.0% 23 MOURAYAN $770,000 3 11% 12 43% 28 $941,415 -163 -58.3% -92 -23.5% 24 HAY LIST $760,000 14 70% 4 20% 20 $1,719,125 128 64.1% 549 64.6% 25 KING'S ROSE $753,625 8 47% 3 18% 17 $974,390 249 146.2% 296 58.6%
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  #10  
Old 25th November 2011, 11:57 AM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Certainly interesting, thanks Shaun.

If we dissect it a bit, there's still plenty of meat there.
Take out those that won one big race.
Take out those starts that made the horse get noticed.
And we still have plenty to work with.

Some of my rules include dumping any horse that has been unplaced this campaign and must be a last start winner.
No first up horses.
No first starters.
Then it must be heavily supported, without an obvious threat, which narrows that list dramatically.
Racing style and manner of win is another important factor.
This eliminated very good horses like Octagonal and Northerly, but saved countless bad results otherwise.

Glaringly obvious that Black Caviar, Sepoy and So You Think fall into this category.
I especially like horses that either round them up mid race and kick away on the turn, or those that are close to the lead and open up running away from them.

Bit like Frankel did, and Denman (UK) in the first Gold Cup he contested.

They ruined SYT by sending him to the US, I doubt he'll ever be the same, as confidence is completely underestimated by trainers in my opinion.

I also like to avoid horses that need to be pushed along too much, preferring those that can do it untouched, whatever the margin. To me that's class.
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http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
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