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#11

22nd January 2014, 12:47 PM

aussielongboat aussielongboat is offline

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Quote:

Originally Posted by stugots

If those are BF figures then the intro of the turnover tax certainly would have had an impact, but tbh it would surprise if the overall tote figures had changed to such an extent, that would be a worry.

i have read recently that the corporates have been blowing up about the number of favourites that won during spring having cost them profits - maybe these figures reflect that in a way.

#12

22nd January 2014, 01:05 PM

beton

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Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 589

Quote:

Originally Posted by aussielongboat

not much change really - apart from being harder to read

<=$30 divi

total yr starters Wprice % of TOT
2054 2014 2003 $6.55 97.5%
31140 2013 30341 $6.78 97.4%
26464 2012 25646 $6.93 96.9%
20867 2011 20178 $7.07 96.7%
80525 Grand Total 78168 $6.90 97.1%

>30 divi
yr starters Wprice
2054 2014 51 $41.46 2.5%
31140 2013 799 $44.51 2.6%
26464 2012 818 $46.09 3.1%
20867 2011 689 $45.89 3.3%
80525 Grand Total 2357 $45.40 2.9%

Initially it was alarming. Effectively <$30 is the first 6 favs. >$30 is the rest. Thus 2.9% winners above 6th rank in underperforming. Showing that the ratings are getting better

#13

22nd January 2014, 01:22 PM

blackdog1

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Join Date: Aug 2013

Posts: 177

Quote:

Originally Posted by aussielongboat

overall tab dividends on the winners- yes everybody says that ( they thought they would be shorter) - but it has been near the same number for at least 20 years - probably longer

same goes for harness average divs. everyone thinks it's a lot lower than it actually is. All they remember is the $1.1 wunner but there are a lot of higher ones too.

#14

22nd January 2014, 02:19 PM

Michal

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Join Date: Oct 2005

Posts: 1,007

Quote:

Originally Posted by stugots

...... it would surprise if the overall tote figures had changed to such an extent, that would be a worry.

Looking at our data (the whole lot) from 5/3/2010 the picture that emerges supports something I have been saying all along. The market is getting smarter all the time. This is the analysis of NSW TOTE average prices of all horses by Year and Quarters. Gone down from $8.30 to $7.70 over 4 years

Code:

Year             Value    Bets   Wins   SR      Collect         Avg       POT       Profit         Outs

                 2010     130722 12429  9.5%    $103,124.70     $8.30     -21.11%   -$27,597.30    27  
                 2011     162321 15466  9.5%    $127,360.08     $8.20     -21.54%   -$34,960.92    27  
                 2012     162219 15999  9.9%    $125,096.82     $7.80     -22.88%   -$37,122.18    28  
                 2013     165680 16471  9.9%    $127,014.68     $7.70     -23.34%   -$38,665.32    27  
                 2014     9344   956    10.2%   $7,311.50       $7.60     -21.75%   -$2,032.50     23  

Quarters         Value    Bets   Wins   SR      Collect         Avg       POT       Profit         Outs

                 2010 Q1  12044  1147   9.5%    $9,189.50       $8.00     -23.70%   -$2,854.50     24  
                 2010 Q2  41414  3860   9.3%    $32,726.30      $8.50     -20.98%   -$8,687.70     27  
                 2010 Q3  38174  3602   9.4%    $30,749.30      $8.50     -19.45%   -$7,424.70     27  
                 2010 Q4  39090  3820   9.8%    $30,459.60      $8.00     -22.08%   -$8,630.40     27  
                 2011 Q1  40173  3821   9.5%    $31,833.70      $8.30     -20.76%   -$8,339.30     25  
                 2011 Q2  41405  3855   9.3%    $32,278.90      $8.40     -22.04%   -$9,126.10     27  
                 2011 Q3  38918  3621   9.3%    $30,086.30      $8.30     -22.69%   -$8,831.70     27  
                 2011 Q4  41825  4169   10.0%   $33,161.18      $8.00     -20.71%   -$8,663.82     24  
                 2012 Q1  40980  4056   9.9%    $32,334.32      $8.00     -21.10%   -$8,645.68     28  
                 2012 Q2  40617  3839   9.5%    $30,884.78      $8.00     -23.96%   -$9,732.22     28  
                 2012 Q3  39400  3819   9.7%    $30,914.28      $8.10     -21.54%   -$8,485.72     26  
                 2012 Q4  41222  4285   10.4%   $30,963.44      $7.20     -24.89%   -$10,258.56    25  
                 2013 Q1  40570  4180   10.3%   $31,297.94      $7.50     -22.85%   -$9,272.06     25  
                 2013 Q2  42239  4058   9.6%    $31,493.00      $7.80     -25.44%   -$10,746.00    27  
                 2013 Q3  41249  3978   9.6%    $32,720.44      $8.20     -20.68%   -$8,528.56     26  
                 2013 Q4  41622  4255   10.2%   $31,503.30      $7.40     -24.31%   -$10,118.70    26  
                 2014 Q1  9344   956    10.2%   $7,311.50       $7.60     -21.75%   -$2,032.50     23

As a side note I have never analysed 603,000 + horses. It was both great to see that Axis can do it without bogging down (took 9 min) and note that no one ever would have systems that would total even a quarter of those selections so I am happy to reaffirm that Axis is system testing 'capacity safe' for the next 100 years or more.

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#15

22nd January 2014, 02:25 PM

stugots

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Good stuff Michal, very interesting, wonder if it is just part of a longer cycle or as has been suggested, the market is getting smarter.

#16

22nd January 2014, 02:59 PM

beton

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Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 589

It is more efficiency. Probably due to computer use. The handicapper is getting better. I read somewhere that the average margin is down to 1.3 lengths from 1.7. This was put down to better resources for the handicapper. There may be some coming back from the EF, and or maturing of the official ratings

#17

22nd January 2014, 03:35 PM

aussielongboat aussielongboat is offline

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this reduction in the dividends I think it could also be caused by "weight carried" compression.

Under that scenario the average horse more likely to be weighted out of the contest in favour of the more favoured, better bred and higher quality animal..

This is caused on the one hand major owners and trainers squawking when their horse has to carry 60kgs or more and at the other end jockeys blowing up when they have to get down to 54kg or less.

Or it could just be rolling statistics and move out just as easily.

Time will tell.

#18

22nd January 2014, 05:19 PM

The Ocho

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Could it be the TAB's taking out a higher percentage from the pool thereby lowering the odds?

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#19

23rd January 2014, 04:00 AM

Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline

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I'll give you one reason, when the TAB dividend looks to be the same or larger than the betfair odds, I know of a number of punters who pound those odds.
Also with the best tote product, by it's very nature, it trims the excess prices when the bookies lay off.

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#20

23rd January 2014, 07:12 AM

aussielongboat aussielongboat is offline

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Quote:

Originally Posted by The Ocho

Could it be the TAB's taking out a higher percentage from the pool thereby lowering the odds?

i don't think that has increased in the last couple of years.
it may have - i am not sure.

if it has - well - yes it could explain it.

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