I arrived at the same result partypooper.

In the longrun, it all evens out.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

And this is hardly a groundbreaking insight: Backing all favorites SP or otherwise, will lose you money.

If a program is ever invented to be able to lay them all, it's a Rolla in the garage for sure! :-))

Depends entirely what odds you get.

Try laying every favourite on Betfair.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Crash,

You can easily lay all the favs. So I am not sure what your saying - unless you are saying lay them at the SP price which would be difficult.

Regardless if you lay or bet on the favs on betfair you are going to come out at a near break even price ( possibly down a % point or 2 due to commisions) as a lot of studies have shown but you won't be down 10% or 15%. It will be around 1%-2% instead. And hence the possible approach of using a staking system that reclaims this 1%-2% and puts the overall plan in profit. The possible reason it works is because over time the 1%-2% loss actually moves in and out of profit ( 1%-2% up sometimes and and 1% - 2% down sometimes ).

Good Luck

Obviously, exactly what I'm saying [tongue in cheek].

Hi wesmip1
Are you still doing the BAT thing.

Crash reading back your posts I relise you are talking about SP price , I am backing the IAS Fav at the jump. The IAS fav and betfair are normally the same unless one gets backed in late.
I don't take to much notice of the tabs as they very greatly. eg the last at belmont today Lord Baumay 4.2 IAS opened at 4's on S/tab $5.1 at the jump equal Fav with Gamatron $5.1 on IAS Gamatron 8/1 Gamatron ended up Fav paying $5 on S/tab (you could have got $9 on betfair)

Crash you may want to google the grey horse bot

There seems to be quite a few varying ideas about what a race 'favorite' is. It's generally assumed to be the [SP] favorite. Usually the TAB favorite, as that's were the majority of punters [still] bet, for practical reasons.

Wes

At the risk of dragging up the angst again, how is this going?

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

AngryPixie,

I didn't want to keep posting as this just blew up to be something way too big. Since doing this

Backing Progressive : $1533 PROFIT
Laying Progressive : $218 PROFIT

The Backing bank has more than doubled (started with 1K) while the lay side has made a signicant profit (21%).

I have not lost a bank yet although been very close once but then I hit a string of winners. Seems to be the way that you getr a heap of favs up in the morning and then a dull patch with the odd win and then a run of favs win late in the day.

Interestingly both sides are still showing a profit but remember the mathematicians say that one of them has to fall over soon or later ...

Thought I would just add - THIS IS PAPER TRADED RESULTS ONLY. When I say paper traded I have written a program that works it out for me so I don't have to do anything and I just check the figures every so often. I suspect this is just going through a good time at the moment.

Good Luck.

Yes I think eventually one side will fall over but it's important to try your ideas out. In science you usually learn more from your mistakes so they are treated as being unfortunate but valuable things.

Please keep us posted now and then. I found some of what you had to say quite interesting.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash