Live & learn Barny

Seriously though, I have found the pricing technique described in that link very useful.

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"Now let me get this straight - Whatever I do don't bet this horse?"

You're using a scientific approach to finding the 'true' odds of a horse using information that's available to everyone, and your edge is in your consistent approach ? I think I get it, just cannot put it on to paper ..... now where's my abacus gone ?

I have never done any real stats on this most has been from observations but i still believe that following runners is the best option.

There has always been 2 issues stopping me from doing this.

1) Finding the right horses to follow, although this is less of a problem if we use the old placed at group level idea.

2) The amount of money out compared to money returned, this type of bet would be regarded as a floating bet because you would be adding funds every time a horse ran and the funds returned when it won.

The best option for this is to set some type of time period or runners in the stable, if we continually add runners then we would always be in a negative return.

You have to decide if you are happy with bets spaced over weeks rather than days, you could decide to run with a stable of 20 horses and only adding to that stable once you were down to 5 horses, you also need to decide if you are only going to follow them until they win or continue to follow them.

I still believe that over a lifetime the top grade performers would be in profit, but could you only follow some horses for maybe 7 years of racing, maybe a few but hard to do for all your punting, this would be a long term investment like stocks, but like stocks if you find the right horse it could return some nice profits.

Lets just look at the winners last Saturday in Melbourne.


B2P = bet to prices
Race 1 8 Starts 2 Wins B2P 116.8%
Race 2 18 Starts 8 Wins B2P 53.3%
Race 3 5 Starts 2 Wins B2P 130.9%
Race 4 4 Starts 3 Wins B2P 78.4%
Race 5 33 Starts 10 Wins B2P 112.4%
Race 6 15 Starts 3 Wins B2P 86.4%
Race 7 9 Starts 4 Wins B2P 304.8%
Race 8 11 Starts 4 Wins B2P 176.7%
Race 9 14 Starts 8 Wins B2P 78.8%

I know this seams very random but you could do this any Saturday as this shows over a lifetime good horses make a profit.

__________________
One Drive

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"If they need you , they will soon find out."
"If you need them , you will soon find out." --moeee
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Shaun, there was also a poster on here who only looked at Group Placed horses. Can't recall who the poster was but I'll look for it later.

This poster allocated points for a Win or Placing in a Group event. That is he / she Rated them. The better the race, the more points allocated for the Win / Place ..... ? So these horses had a Rating based soely on Group level performance. He / She gave examples of backing a horse that hadn't won for yonks but was the Top Rated horse in this particular race based on it's Rating. The logic was that even a good horse out of form for a while would come back and win sometime, somewhere. I think the one example was for a horse racing in Tassie which won at good odds. It was backed because it was the only "Rated" horse in the race.

This system didn't invlove backing these horses all the time, it Rated the horses based on how they'd performed at Group level.

I also recall the comments about Adelaide Oaks winner / placings earning less Ratings points that a Qld event. My memory's a bit vague, but essentially this poster did not assume every Group 1 event for example, should have the same amount of points allocated. He / She actually rated the Group events and allocated points accordingly.

Sounds like a cracking idea to me.

Remember Tears I cry ? Fluked a Group 1, then didn't win for almost 20 years, then strung together 3 wins in a row ?? Now I would think is an extreme case, not the norm, but you'd still get a result because when it put together a few wins it was down very much in class and I doubt there would have been any other Group horses in those races.

Riches await ..... YeeeeeHaaaaa

not exactly, but what the hey, that's close enough especially the bit about 'consistency' - without that we are doomed, whatever our pursuit.

__________________
"Now let me get this straight - Whatever I do don't bet this horse?"

Can somone help me please.


As we all know ratings as a way of identifying the best chances,
In a race doesn't work so can someone tell me this.

'WHY DO RACE CLUBS THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EMPLOY
Handicappers who use ratings to assess the best horses,
Getting more weight than the lesser performed horses.

Can somone tell me the method we need to adopt in racing,
As 'RATINGS" don't work.

Have now lost all respect for Lloyd Williams as an owner,
As he employed Jim Bowler chief handicapper for the V.R.C.
To come and work for him using "Ratings" as a way of assessing,
His horses and the lead up races to which races he should set,
His horses for.

Obviously Lloyd has got it wrong.

Aside from that i want the process the clubs race handicappers now,
Need to adopt to assess horses (not ratings) the melbourne cup for example please.

Cheers.
Gary.

Hi Garyf,

I found this:

VRC HANDICAPPING GUIDE

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

Hi T.S.

Thanks for that i fully understand this have used,
That plus more.

What i want to know is this.

If Ratings as a process don't work in assessing horses,
Why then do race clubs employ handicappers throughout,
The world to use ratings when clearly we have been told,
They don't work.

I am not saying Don Scott unitab skyform etc backing all,
The top rated every race every day lose of course they will.

Name me 1 stat that only has 1 selection in every race that,
You can bet on every day in Australia that does.

What i want to know is the process we need to adopt,
That accurately weighs up what weight each horse should,
Be allocated (BUT NOT RATINGS AS THE PROCESS DOESN'T WORK)

I myself use ratings as a method of selection then play around a bit,
With the main chances apply some prices, filters, and away i go.

But as ratings don't work i need to know what process me and,
The club handicappers need to change to.

Remembering t.a.b. 1 wins more races than 2 morethan 3 etc.
Done by the clubs handicapper using ratings but how can this be right,
As ratings don't work?.

Cheers.

hmm, well they do work, just not for everybody

__________________
"Now let me get this straight - Whatever I do don't bet this horse?"