The idea of telling everyone your secret would not be good, but a select few is not such a bad idea.

Now i know the idea of risk free betting has been posted on here before and a lot of people claim it is not possible and a few prove it is, i won't go in to details.

But the concept was explained to me in detail by a former forum user and like most ideas it became harder and harder to use, but from this came my current ideas and it all has to do with maths.


This started 4 years ago and i have been refining my ideas every since, as one possibility comes along another one dissolves, but in all this time i have kept that one person up to date with whats going on because with sharing ideas one of us may come up with the answer.

Remember this. no single person that every invented anything was not improved upon by another.

Hi all

I reckon that telling a few that you know are professional enough to take it for what it is is not so bad in the scheme of things it may actually evolve your own idea to greater heights perhaps. As they say more heads are better than one.

Perhaps, is the fact that one does not want to look like an idiot which is generally a feeling one gets if they tell all that this is great it works then falls in a hole.

I have come to the conclusion that its not about picking winners on a certain day but having an edge, many cant see this so if you say pick 3 selections and they all lose you would be seen as a loser whereby you know that in the longer term this is just a process.

Cheers
U

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Life should NOT be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in an attractive and well preserved body,but rather to skid in sideways, BEER in one hand- PIZZA in the other, body thoroughly used up, totally worn out and screaming WOO HOO!

Shaun and Ubetido, I agree totally. just one thought though, I would consider 3 losers on one day as ONE loser, and say 2 losers + a 3-1 winner as ONE 3-1 ON winner!!

Write a winning formula outside of Ranwich [or anywhere] on the footpath and believe me no one will take any notice.

hahahahaha! yeah you're probably right there Crash, hahah!

Just out of interest, I ran the suggested idea of backing the horse with the worst
Crs + Dist form, using the Neural setting at 5 all the rest 0, starting from the bottom & working up.
The first selection we came to that was also in the RadioTAB 3 selections became the bet. (regardless if a draw on pts.)

Result Fri 11th July.
10 from 35 = 29% SR
Ret 47.40
O/L 35.00
Prof 12.40 = 35% POT

Av Div $4.74

UniTAB prices
$5.70 5.80 7.30 4.30 4.40 3.40 3.00 4.40 5.90 3.30

Much better prices could have been had using Betfair.

The idea now shared, will not effect the price one little bit, because it flys in the face of logic, the average punter's brain will naturally say that there is no way something like this can possible work long term because a horse with better Crs & Dist form, will beat a horse with lower known form, under this criteria.
With this firmly in mind, the punter will now do the logical step & back the one with the better Crs & Dist form which will usually result in lower prices being had, just to start with.

The longterm SR may be similar but it is the lower Average Price of the better rated Crs + Dist horse, which will be the killer.

Like I said in the previouse post, start laying these selections with poor
Crs + Dist ratings & see how much money one will loose.
So may as well back them to win, especially if showing juicy prices.

Cheers.

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Cheers.

Looking at the winning prices Bagman the runners must have had something going for them. Their mostly 1st, 2nd. or 3rd favorites aren't they?

Yes mechanically, like that the sign on the Pokie that says "THIS MACHINE GUARANTEES TO PAY OUT 85c IN THE $" what it is REALLY saying is that "this machine guarantees to take 15c from every $ that goes into it , rain or shine"
Same with the "other" machine the name of the game is to slowly cream off 15c in the $ like clockwork........ one person or more winning on one or even 100 particular races is irrellavant really isn't it?

Results for this idea, 9 meetings targeted .

Sat 13th July
20 from 70 = SR 29%
Ret 104
O/L 70
Prof + 34

Av price $5.20

Divs
$16.40 6.20 3.80 6.30 5.20 5.90 3.10 8.50 6.30 3.60 2.70 1.60 4.30 5.10 6.10 3.20 2.40 4.00 2.60 3.70

Interesting results so far
30 from 104 races = 29% SR
+$46.40 prof = 44% POT

Av price $5.03

Now according to the experts, this cant be done longterrm because the percentage is too high to warrant this Average price.
Maybe they are logically correct based on known form, but keep in mind we are looking at the reverse of known form, every form person will tell you a good form person will out do a systems person.

For this idea to fall over it would require the better form horses, which will have the shorter prices also, to suddenly over perform to their historical known ability in relation to its price. Which on past history, does not happen longterm.

I still feel no one will use it, even though it shows a promising result & its free.
So there is no fear of the price dropping, because its reverse logic.
One thing to keep in mind, is when a price drops, it also pushes the other horses price out & these selections will win only a percentage of all races, not all of them, a Bookie would not want to be caught out too much on known form horses at too higher price so as to balance his book.

To come back to the original question, would you sell a system fearing the horses price will drop?
The answer is .... Hell Yeah!

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Cheers.

Hi Bhagwan the hardest thing is to get into the Neurals, tried to have a look yesterday to see how they went, gave up after one race.

PS what would be the betting strategie??