Bags

No not cheesed off at all. My system doesnt involve pre post odds so its irrelivant to me anyway.
I was more or less saying that picking out 1/2/3/4/5 and using them in a system i.e. run indivdual accounts on each to see if there was a profitable margin for one of those is a waste of time. As you have already said the 3rd pick might be the 8th pick by the time they jump so the stats kept are no where near accurate.......so why bother?
Now if you agree with that then why even bother using pre post odds at all? An indicator yes, however its abit like relying on a petrol gauge (thats not computerised) that tells you your running out of petrol. Ok, its a guide but when the light comes on you wouldnt be taking a guess as to what town your actually going to run of petrol in are you......
I think a good system should eliminate the guess work and be soley based upon definate goings on or set stats not presumptions like pre post odds. Bookies and punters drive the market to where it should be upon jump time not the day before when a newspaper has to meet its deadline.

Yesterday the method bombed - one placegetter of $1.60 (NSW) from 5 selections. If today it also crashes I'll have to go back to the drawing board.

Today's selections:
Ballina R3 no.7 - Cross Scene
Ballina R6 no.9 - Son Of A Brom
Ballina R7 no.1 - Bitenrun
Werribee R2 no.1 - Arezzo
Werribee R4 no.4 - Jetsetter
Werribee R5 no.2 - Jungle Echo
Northam R2 no.9 - Pilashaky.

If anyone's interested, there's one selection from N.Z.
R5 no.1 - Borrack.

Micheal
Been following both your threads. As far as this one goes i think you should keep at it even if you dont post. Finally the E.I. has reared its ugly head and the quality of horses racing has finally caught up with us......hence your lay thread doing better. I think the Melb carnival has hidden it all a bit too. Its been a very ordinary fortnight as far as trying anything different goes. I think if any system survives this period then its a goer.

Good Luck
Watching with interest.

Hi, King Cugat.

To be honest, I've never really taken the E.I situation into account, as at the moment I'm more into systems than ratings but I'm sure it must have an effect on racing. Hopefully the person/people preparing the Unitab ratings would be aware of this and therefore factors it into their calcs.

Finally, the method struck a winner:
Werribee R4 no.4 - Jetsetter. I backed it on NSW TAb where it paid $13.50 and $3.10.

Good work mate on jetsetter

As ive posted before i have a system but really get a buzz seeing and hearing about new ideas and people following their ideas. Of course i am always looking for another one!

Keep it up!

>> E.I. >> refering to less consistent horses running. There will still nearly always be a 100 rater for your system but the quality of that 100 rater compared to normal racing environment 100 rater .....well theres a definate difference in quality & consistency if a comparisions are kept............ thats only....IMO of course.

How about...

1. Eliminate Pre-Post Favourite (Newspaper Guide Favourite)
2. Eliminate 100 rater (if next raters are 99,98,97).
3. Eliminated newspaper pro first selection.
3. Select a horse within the top 4 raters except the 100 (so one of the next best 3 to win).
4. Eliminate races with 7 or less runners.
5. Eliminated maiden races.

Re original system here:

BALLINA
2/4 x
6/9 x
7/1, 3.50w 1.70p
WERRIBEE (VR)
2/1 x
4/4, 10.30w 2.60p
6/2 x
NORTHAM (PR)
2/9 x
AWAPUNI (ZR)
2/10, 1.70p
5/1, 1.70w 1.40p

Seems to be working better as a win system, rather than a place system.

Hi, Crash.

When I tested the system with 20 races, place betting slightly outperformed win, and as I like place betting I was more interested in this.

However, when Merriguy looked at N.Z, his figures favoured win betting, and as you point out live betting has now also done the same. Anyway, if either proves profitable I'll be happy even though I have a (maybe unreasonable?) bias with Place solely because it has a higher strike rate.

How is the system long term? Does it give a long sustain profit?

Can it work with the greyhounds and the trots?

Hi, Ade.

I don't know what the long-term results are - I only tested it with approx one week's racing, time will tell...

I had a look at the greyhounds using yesterday's racing. There were 10 selections for one winner of $4.60 and 5 placegetters for a return of $10.60. I also tested the trotting with the past 7 days racing and the results are: (I did not look at N.Z. and there were 2 potential selections that fell in one of their last 2 starts so I omitted them from the results).

21 selections:
7 winners for a return of $22.60 giving a profit of $1.60.
12 placegetters for a return of $19.30 for a loss of $1.70.

Not really discouraging but at least it shows the method might have promise. If it had crashed big-time I would have been worried about the gallopers, but now I'm a little more hopeful.